93L Invest

[seaswing]

By the way, once again the Atlantic is ahead of the West Pacific Ocean by 1 storm.

Wow that's so rare for us to have more this late in our season!

This has been a rare season.

[mel38]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 051900
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...

...A TAMMY DEPARTS NWD...ATTENTION TURNS BACK TO OUR SOUTHWEST...

TONIGHT...CENTER OF TS TAMMY WILL MOVE NNW TOWARD THE NE FL COAST
OVERNIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE...LIFT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL
INITIALLY CONTINUE N AND E OF THE CENTER OF TAMMY WITH ONLY
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ACROSS E CENTRAL FL THIS EVENING. MAY SEE
ACTIVITY RE-DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH GFS STREAMING TROPICAL
MOISTURE NE (PWATS 2.5+) ACROSS THE SRN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. WILL KEEP POPS
SLIGHLY LOWER THAN GFS MOS AROUND 50 PCT TO ACCT FOR LESS EXPECTED
COVERAGE THROUGH LATE EVENING AND MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGH
SURF ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF BEACH EROSION WITH
LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE AROUND 10 PM.

THU-SAT...WITH THE NWD DEPARTURE OF TAMMY...ATTENTION WILL TURN BACK
TWD THE SW AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (WHICH MAY HAVE SOME REMNANT MID
LEVEL VORTICITY FROM FORMER HURCN STAN) CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL MOVES NNE AND THEN NE AND LIKELY ACROSS FLORIDA. IT APPEARS
THAT WHATEVER FORMS SW OF FL WILL WIND UP INTERACTING WITH THE EAST
SIDE OF THE SAME GOMEX MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT T.S. TAMMY HAS BEEN.

ANTICIPATE THAT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PASS OVER OR JUST NW OF OUR CWA
AS PROGGED SOMETIME ON FRI AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH APPEARS
TO GET CAPTURED BY (OR EJECTED NEWD AHEAD OF) A NRN STREAM SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CTRL/SERN CONUS FRI/SAT.

PRIMARY THREATS FROM A SYSTEM ON THIS TRACK WOULD BE HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC CELLS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT POPS
FAIRLY HIGH STARTING TOMORROW AND HAVE TAPERED BACK A LITTLE FASTER
AND LITTLE MORE THAN THE PREV FCST...STARTING FRI NIGHT.

SUN-WED...LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES COLD FRONT ASCD WITH
THE SFC LOW AND PARENT H50 TROUGH WILL SLOW AS IT APPROACHES FL.
WHILE A GOOD CHUNK OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE NE OF THE STATE BY SAT
...STILL ANTICIPATE A LAG IN DEEPER DRYING FOR ANOTHER DAY. ALTHOUGH
POPS WERE TAPERED BACK TO SLGT CHC A DAY OR EARLIER THAN PREV...HAVE
KEPT SCT POPS FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT FOR ALL COS...AND SCT/CHC FOR THE
SRN CWA FOR SUN. DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW EARLY TO MID WEEK SHOULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP SMALL THREAT FOR SHRA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...TS TAMMY WILL MOVE NNW AWAY FROM THE MARINE AREA WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT TO THE EAST OF TAMMY. STRONGEST WINDS TO
20-25 KNOTS ACROSS THE NRN OFFSHORE LEG. COMBINED SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 10 FT THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISH A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT STILL
ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO THU MORNING. LINGERING SWELL WILL KEEP
WAVE HGHTS AT SCA LEVELS THU...THEN INCRSG S-SE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP SEAS AT OR NEAR SCA LEVELS FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT ISOLD-SCT SHRA ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL THROUGH
00Z...WITH DECR COVERAGE 00Z-03Z. COULD SEE ISOLD CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT LATE WITH MOISTURE SURGE INTO SRN FL AND INCREASING
UPR DIVERGENCE ALOFT LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 75 86 77 84 / 50 70 70 70
MCO 74 87 75 85 / 50 70 70 70
MLB 77 86 78 84 / 50 70 70 70
VRB 78 86 78 85 / 50 70 70 70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET THROUGH THU
AFTERNOON.

[artist]

looks like recon will go in tomorrow if necessary -

000
NOUS42 KNHC 051730
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
0130 PM EDT WED 05 OCT 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z OCT 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-130

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 06/1500Z A. 07/0300,0900Z
B. AFXXX 01IIA INVEST B. NOAA2 02IIA CYCLONE
C. 06/1230Z C. 07/0130Z
D. 25.0N 84.0W D. 26.0N 83.0W
E. 06/1400Z TO 06/1930Z E. 07/0200Z TO 07/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE
A. 07/1200,1500,1800Z E. 07/1030Z TO 07/1830Z
B. AFXXX 03IIA CYCLONE F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
C. 07/0900Z

[terpfan]

Since he knows more than I do, Jeff Masters' Updated Blog is here:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Enjoy.

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

[cjrciadt]

[vbhoutex]

Hi everyone, I have a question.

If this thing develops... is there any chance of it moving toward NE Mexico? Thanks in advance.

Its Already NE of Mexico?

NE of the Yucatan Peninsula maybe.. but with NE MExico I'm referring to "Gilbert and Emily" Land.. or "Below Texas".

To finally answer your question. It is not an impossibility that it could happen, but it is very improbable. A cold front and accompanying trough will be moving off the TX coast this evening and continue moving S and E. This should pick up anything that may develop and move it eventually NE towards FL.

[gilbert88]

Hi everyone, I have a question.

If this thing develops... is there any chance of it moving toward NE Mexico? Thanks in advance.

Its Already NE of Mexico?

NE of the Yucatan Peninsula maybe.. but with NE MExico I'm referring to "Gilbert and Emily" Land.. or "Below Texas".

To finally answer your question. It is not an impossibility that it could happen, but it is very improbable. A cold front and accompanying trough will be moving off the TX coast this evening and continue moving S and E. This should pick up anything that may develop and move it eventually NE towards FL.

Thank you.

[floridahurricaneguy]

Intensity forecast seems odd to me. How can after 48 hours keep getting stronger if it would supposedly be hitting then? Also being North of Tampa by 30 minutes and only 4 miles from gulf, would it be worse place for conditions or better off, just by current models? I thinking worse since it may go just north of tampa.

Matt

[SouthFloridawx]

[Josephine96]

Looks like just about every model so far takes it over the peninsula.. But how strong..

[x-y-no]

Intensity forecast seems odd to me. How can after 48 hours keep getting stronger if it would supposedly be hitting then? Also being North of Tampa by 30 minutes and only 4 miles from gulf, would it be worse place for conditions or better off, just by current models? I thinking worse since it may go just north of tampa.

Matt

Seems the post is fixed now - previously it was showning the intensity forecast for AL94 (out in the Atlantic)

Note: SHIP model does not consider terrain - DSHP does.

[cjrciadt]

heat Potential not there at all.

[LilNoles2005]

LBAR remains at the panhandle...

The others only slightly shifted north, I believe... but not by much...

I think that any future landfall, if any, would be south of all model guidance..

[Josephine96]

waters cooled off huh

[cjrciadt]

SST's are still pretty warm, but then there is always the Gulf-Stream.

[x-y-no]

heat Potential not there at all.

Well ... 40+ kJ/cm^2 will sustain a fair strength hurricane.

The eastern Gulf is cooling off, though. Seems there may be an end to this season eventually after all.

[hicksta]

LBAR remains at the panhandle...

The others only slightly shifted north, I believe... but not by much...

I think that any future landfall, if any, would be south of all model guidance..

Dont trust those models..

[SouthFloridawx]