90E Invest at EPAC

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cycloneye
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90E Invest at EPAC

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2005 8:23 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP902005) ON 20051005 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051005 1200 051006 0000 051006 1200 051007 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.4N 99.6W 16.7N 100.9W 17.2N 102.0W 17.7N 103.0W
BAMM 16.4N 99.6W 16.9N 100.6W 17.4N 101.4W 17.9N 102.1W
LBAR 16.4N 99.6W 16.9N 100.2W 17.7N 100.3W 18.0N 100.3W
SHIP 20KTS 27KTS 35KTS 41KTS
DSHP 20KTS 27KTS 35KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051007 1200 051008 1200 051009 1200 051010 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.2N 104.2W 19.7N 106.8W 21.7N 109.2W 26.3N 107.0W
BAMM 18.4N 103.0W 20.2N 105.8W 22.5N 108.7W 26.6N 107.2W
LBAR 18.3N 100.2W 19.7N 100.3W 21.6N 100.9W 24.7N 100.7W
SHIP 47KTS 54KTS 53KTS 43KTS
DSHP 33KTS 33KTS 32KTS 25KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.4N LONCUR = 99.6W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 16.5N LONM12 = 99.2W DIRM12 = 255DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 16.6N LONM24 = 98.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Stan remanants in the EPAC now.But if it forms into a cyclone the name will be Pilar.

Image
Last edited by cycloneye on Thu Oct 06, 2005 2:34 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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cinlfla
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#2 Postby cinlfla » Wed Oct 05, 2005 8:24 am

Will this remain Stan in the pacific?
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#3 Postby skysummit » Wed Oct 05, 2005 8:25 am

cinlfla wrote:Will this remain Stan in the pacific?


Look at the bottom of Cycloneye's post.
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2005 8:25 am

cinlfla wrote:Will this remain Stan in the pacific?


Pilar will be the name.
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#5 Postby cinlfla » Wed Oct 05, 2005 8:26 am

Look at the bottom of Cycloneye's post.



OOPs....Sorry guys didn't see that.
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#6 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2005 8:29 am

cinlfla wrote:
Look at the bottom of Cycloneye's post.



OOPs....Sorry guys didn't see that.


Ok no problem at all. :)
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2005 8:50 am

Image

Very deep convection developing now meaning that developemt is not far away and we may see Pilar before the day is out if trend of organization continues.
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#8 Postby Buck » Wed Oct 05, 2005 8:55 am

It looked like a new circulation was forming in that deep, deep convection last night as Stans was still dissapating.

Stan may be having twins, though! Pilar AND potentially Vince over at the Yucatan.
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#9 Postby feederband » Wed Oct 05, 2005 8:57 am

EPAC Cheaters ...They are just tring to catch up with the ATL... :lol: :wink:
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#10 Postby apocalypt-flyer » Wed Oct 05, 2005 2:49 pm

Now they're even trying to pick up the leftovers of the Atlantic. Talk about desperate .. :lol: ..
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#11 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2005 2:51 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP902005) ON 20051005 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051005 1800 051006 0600 051006 1800 051007 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.5N 100.6W 16.8N 102.0W 17.4N 103.2W 17.9N 104.4W
BAMM 16.5N 100.6W 16.9N 101.6W 17.5N 102.5W 18.2N 103.4W
LBAR 16.5N 100.6W 17.0N 101.3W 17.7N 101.9W 18.2N 102.4W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 42KTS 49KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 42KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051007 1800 051008 1800 051009 1800 051010 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.6N 105.7W 19.9N 107.8W 21.3N 108.8W 25.0N 106.0W
BAMM 19.0N 104.6W 20.7N 107.0W 22.3N 108.4W 24.8N 106.5W
LBAR 18.8N 102.8W 20.7N 103.5W 23.5N 103.1W 26.3N 99.8W
SHIP 55KTS 59KTS 54KTS 45KTS
DSHP 55KTS 59KTS 54KTS 37KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.5N LONCUR = 100.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 16.3N LONM12 = 99.6W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 16.5N LONM24 = 99.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#12 Postby artist » Wed Oct 05, 2005 5:11 pm

looks like 'ole Stan now to be Pillar is trying ramp back up -

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnhe.html
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#13 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Oct 05, 2005 5:41 pm

This thing is already a tropical cyclone you can see that the cirulation has formed. With deep convection over it. Stan was moving off the coast when they declared him to of faded. This should of been Stan.
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#14 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Wed Oct 05, 2005 5:50 pm

Gotta love the name 'Pilar'

But looks like my EPAC seasonal outlook got blown out :(
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#15 Postby wxwatcher91 » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:02 pm

sorry if this has already been brought up somewhere else but I just got home...

any opinions on this little comment in the 5am discussion:

SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST
THIS... AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD BACK TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO.
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#16 Postby JtSmarts » Wed Oct 05, 2005 6:44 pm

Stan has switched genders. :D
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#17 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2005 7:37 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP902005) ON 20051006 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051006 0000 051006 1200 051007 0000 051007 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.0N 102.7W 18.6N 104.0W 19.1N 105.1W 19.7N 106.2W
BAMM 18.0N 102.7W 18.6N 103.7W 19.1N 104.6W 19.8N 105.6W
LBAR 18.0N 102.7W 18.9N 103.9W 19.8N 104.9W 20.3N 105.7W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051008 0000 051009 0000 051010 0000 051011 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.3N 107.1W 21.4N 108.7W 24.0N 108.9W 29.5N 103.8W
BAMM 20.4N 106.6W 21.6N 108.4W 24.0N 109.2W 28.3N 104.7W
LBAR 20.7N 106.3W 22.2N 107.9W 24.3N 107.0W 31.3N 102.4W
SHIP 52KTS 58KTS 53KTS 43KTS
DSHP 51KTS 56KTS 52KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.0N LONCUR = 102.7W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 16.4N LONM12 = 100.5W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 16.1N LONM24 = 99.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#18 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 05, 2005 7:44 pm

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 052209
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM PDT WED OCT 5 2005

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...PARTIALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN...
EXTENDING ALONG THE ENTIRE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS NOT
DEVELOPED YET AND THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE IS INLAND OVER
MEXICO. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IF
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER WATER...AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
WESTWARD. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PUERTO ANGEL WESTWARD
TO MANZANILLO... ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

I tought that this TWO was posted but here is now.
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#19 Postby aerojad » Wed Oct 05, 2005 9:19 pm

JtSmarts wrote:Stan has switched genders. :D
*snicker* great way to put it
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#20 Postby hurricanefreak1988 » Wed Oct 05, 2005 9:33 pm

Pilar is a female name?! That's even weirder than Jova. At least that name sounded a bit feminine, ending with an A.

Buck wrote:Stan may be having twins, though! Pilar AND potentially Vince over at the Yucatan.

Since when do guys have babies? :eek:
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