94L Invest E of Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
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- SouthFloridawx
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94 is moving along at 12-20 mph clip. I highly doubt that it is going to make that turn the models are predicting.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_94.gif
I think it will continue to move under the ridge. Then turn more wnw to nw and probably out to sea but, not as quick as thought.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_94.gif
I think it will continue to move under the ridge. Then turn more wnw to nw and probably out to sea but, not as quick as thought.
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- SouthFloridawx
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- skysummit
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MGC wrote:This disturbance is on deck. The NW Carb has too much shear. Depending on how far south the center forms will make all the difference. It will have to fight through some pretty mean shear near the islands. I has a day or two before that happens though......MGC
Where do you see mean shear near the islands? Looking at the current shear charts, it doesn't see too bad.
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skysummit wrote:MGC wrote:This disturbance is on deck. The NW Carb has too much shear. Depending on how far south the center forms will make all the difference. It will have to fight through some pretty mean shear near the islands. I has a day or two before that happens though......MGC
Where do you see mean shear near the islands? Looking at the current shear charts, it doesn't see too bad.
On Thursday at 12Z shear begins to increase to the west of the Leewards.
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- calculatedrisk
- Tropical Depression
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NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L
INITIAL TIME 0Z OCT 6
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 8.4 39.4 280./20.0
6 9.1 40.3 307./11.2
12 9.8 41.2 311./11.2
18 10.4 42.0 305./10.1
24 11.6 43.2 316./16.4
30 12.2 43.9 308./ 9.2
36 13.8 44.7 335./17.8
42 14.3 45.7 293./11.4
48 15.6 46.2 339./13.9
54 16.2 47.1 307./10.9
60 16.8 47.9 303./ 9.5
66 17.3 48.9 300./10.8
72 17.6 49.9 285./ 9.5
78 18.2 50.6 313./ 9.3
84 18.6 51.5 289./ 9.5
90 19.0 52.2 300./ 7.3
96 19.3 52.4 324./ 3.9
102 19.8 52.9 313./ 6.6
108 20.2 53.4 312./ 7.0
114 20.5 53.8 299./ 4.3
120 20.7 54.2 302./ 4.3
126 21.0 54.3 337./ 3.2
Forecast track still well North of the Leeward islands.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L
INITIAL TIME 0Z OCT 6
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 8.4 39.4 280./20.0
6 9.1 40.3 307./11.2
12 9.8 41.2 311./11.2
18 10.4 42.0 305./10.1
24 11.6 43.2 316./16.4
30 12.2 43.9 308./ 9.2
36 13.8 44.7 335./17.8
42 14.3 45.7 293./11.4
48 15.6 46.2 339./13.9
54 16.2 47.1 307./10.9
60 16.8 47.9 303./ 9.5
66 17.3 48.9 300./10.8
72 17.6 49.9 285./ 9.5
78 18.2 50.6 313./ 9.3
84 18.6 51.5 289./ 9.5
90 19.0 52.2 300./ 7.3
96 19.3 52.4 324./ 3.9
102 19.8 52.9 313./ 6.6
108 20.2 53.4 312./ 7.0
114 20.5 53.8 299./ 4.3
120 20.7 54.2 302./ 4.3
126 21.0 54.3 337./ 3.2
Forecast track still well North of the Leeward islands.
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-
- Tropical Depression
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Too much sheer and dry air everywhere at the moment in the Atlantic especially in the Caribbean and GOM for anything to form any stronger than Tammy. Just alot of needed rain will be coming into the southeast next couple of days or so.Time to go to Blockbuster and rent you some dvds especially if you live in the southeast. I think we could see some more named storms but no Hurricanes. The ingredients are not just there unless we see some major changes in the atmosphere the next 2-5 days.
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- cycloneye
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A LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1300
MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ORGANIZE...
AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
5:30 AM TWO
MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ORGANIZE...
AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
5:30 AM TWO
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- cycloneye
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CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES IS NOW A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 8N39W
MOVING W 15-20 KT. SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE
MID LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE NW OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8.5N-14N BETWEEN 37W-40W AND
FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 40W-44W. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
8 AM Discussion.
THE LESSER ANTILLES IS NOW A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 8N39W
MOVING W 15-20 KT. SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE
MID LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE NW OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8.5N-14N BETWEEN 37W-40W AND
FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 40W-44W. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
8 AM Discussion.
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- DESTRUCTION5
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- cycloneye
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Here is the graphic that many wait for here.
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