94L Invest E of Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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SouthFloridawx
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#81 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:46 pm

94 is moving along at 12-20 mph clip. I highly doubt that it is going to make that turn the models are predicting.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_94.gif

I think it will continue to move under the ridge. Then turn more wnw to nw and probably out to sea but, not as quick as thought.
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#82 Postby gilbert88 » Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:47 pm

Either a fish or yet another huge mess. If this sneaks into the Caribbean, how strong can it get?
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#83 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:48 pm

Image
Image
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#84 Postby krysof » Wed Oct 05, 2005 10:57 pm

southfloridawx2005 wrote:Image
Image


There is no way it's going to make such a turn right now, it's moving wnw quickly, I do think that this will be a fish, but it will get much closer to the U.S.
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#85 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 05, 2005 11:21 pm

A Cape Verde system in October. Unbelievable. If it threatens the islands or the U.S. outrageously unbelievable!
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#86 Postby skysummit » Wed Oct 05, 2005 11:23 pm

It looks like the models are picking up on that weakness...but looking at WV, it looks like the ridge is building in from the north...who knows? I know I sure don't.
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#87 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 05, 2005 11:24 pm

It's soo far south though. I don't see how it will turn N as some of the models are showing....I think it may just sneak into the Caribbean. :eek:
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#88 Postby Brent » Wed Oct 05, 2005 11:25 pm

It really needs to slow down if it's gonna turn... I don't know I'm skeptical.
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#89 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 05, 2005 11:27 pm

Could you imagine if it makes it into the Caribbean as a T.S. or hurricane?

Keep in mind it's entirely possible. Tampa Bay's major hurricane of 1921 developed in the SW Caribbean and it hit Tampa in late October.

So we need to watch this one very carefully I'm afraid.
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#90 Postby MGC » Wed Oct 05, 2005 11:31 pm

This disturbance is on deck. The NW Carb has too much shear. Depending on how far south the center forms will make all the difference. It will have to fight through some pretty mean shear near the islands. I has a day or two before that happens though......MGC
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#91 Postby skysummit » Wed Oct 05, 2005 11:38 pm

MGC wrote:This disturbance is on deck. The NW Carb has too much shear. Depending on how far south the center forms will make all the difference. It will have to fight through some pretty mean shear near the islands. I has a day or two before that happens though......MGC


Where do you see mean shear near the islands? Looking at the current shear charts, it doesn't see too bad.
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#92 Postby RattleMan » Wed Oct 05, 2005 11:44 pm

skysummit wrote:
MGC wrote:This disturbance is on deck. The NW Carb has too much shear. Depending on how far south the center forms will make all the difference. It will have to fight through some pretty mean shear near the islands. I has a day or two before that happens though......MGC


Where do you see mean shear near the islands? Looking at the current shear charts, it doesn't see too bad.


On Thursday at 12Z shear begins to increase to the west of the Leewards.
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#93 Postby calculatedrisk » Thu Oct 06, 2005 12:57 am

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 0Z OCT 6

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 8.4 39.4 280./20.0
6 9.1 40.3 307./11.2
12 9.8 41.2 311./11.2
18 10.4 42.0 305./10.1
24 11.6 43.2 316./16.4
30 12.2 43.9 308./ 9.2
36 13.8 44.7 335./17.8
42 14.3 45.7 293./11.4
48 15.6 46.2 339./13.9
54 16.2 47.1 307./10.9
60 16.8 47.9 303./ 9.5
66 17.3 48.9 300./10.8
72 17.6 49.9 285./ 9.5
78 18.2 50.6 313./ 9.3
84 18.6 51.5 289./ 9.5
90 19.0 52.2 300./ 7.3
96 19.3 52.4 324./ 3.9
102 19.8 52.9 313./ 6.6
108 20.2 53.4 312./ 7.0
114 20.5 53.8 299./ 4.3
120 20.7 54.2 302./ 4.3
126 21.0 54.3 337./ 3.2


Forecast track still well North of the Leeward islands.
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#94 Postby audioslave8 » Thu Oct 06, 2005 1:24 am

Too much sheer and dry air everywhere at the moment in the Atlantic especially in the Caribbean and GOM for anything to form any stronger than Tammy. Just alot of needed rain will be coming into the southeast next couple of days or so.Time to go to Blockbuster and rent you some dvds especially if you live in the southeast. I think we could see some more named storms but no Hurricanes. The ingredients are not just there unless we see some major changes in the atmosphere the next 2-5 days.
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#95 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Oct 06, 2005 2:08 am

If it forms then something has changed. In we will finally get a cape verde season. But so far this season the shear/dry air has killed everything. Like whats going on?
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I94

#96 Postby Fego » Thu Oct 06, 2005 3:25 am

So... looks healthy isn't it?
Image
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#97 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 06, 2005 5:43 am

A LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1300
MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ORGANIZE...
AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.


5:30 AM TWO
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#98 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 06, 2005 6:44 am

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES IS NOW A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 8N39W
MOVING W 15-20 KT. SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE
MID LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE NW OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8.5N-14N BETWEEN 37W-40W AND
FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 40W-44W. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.


8 AM Discussion.
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#99 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Oct 06, 2005 6:44 am

WWD at 20 MPH...Im sorry but I think this is going to sneak into the E Carib....Look for the models to shift west all day today...
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#100 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 06, 2005 6:46 am

Image

Here is the graphic that many wait for here.
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