94L Prediction (CLICK ON URL)

[wxcrazytwo]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This wave can several ways, but I have predicted 3 possible scenarios, but I know that there are more, but I chose the three most likely ones. Depending on the high breaking down, I think path 1 will be the more likely, but if the high breaks down then paths 2 and 3 will occur. I just have a feeling that if it continues on its pace and develops that it will not recurve in time and slide more east in the carib and do a Charlie or Ivan, but I don't think it will be as intense. I'd say Cat 1-2. AS ALWAYS COMMENTS WELCOME!!



http://upload.fotofects.com/is.php?i=2455&img=94L.jpg

[skysummit]

I can't see your image...too small.

[CHRISTY]

cant see that pic well.

[wxcrazytwo]

CLICK ON THE URL

[CHRISTY]

looks possible but there a huge upper level to the north of it !

[weatherwoman]

i don't think it will miss the east coast will ride the coast i think you curve it to much off shore

[cinlfla]

This wave can several ways, but I have predicted 3 possible scenarios, but I know that there are more, but I chose the three most likely ones. Depending on the high breaking down, I think path 1 will be the more likely, but if the high breaks down then paths 2 and 3 will occur. I just have a feeling that if it continues on its pace and develops that it will not recurve in time and slide more east in the carib and do a Charlie or Ivan, but I don't think it will be as intense. I'd say Cat 1-2. AS ALWAYS COMMENTS WELCOME!!

What is the shear ahead of it going to be like in the coming days? I think this will play a big role in wheather or not it developes. IMO right at this moment I don't feel as though its going to amount to much.

[MiamiensisWx]

What is the shear ahead of it going to be like in the coming days? I think this will play a big role in wheather or not it developes. IMO right at this moment I don't feel as though its going to amount to much.

Agreed - shear will definately play a role. There are many factors, and shear will be one of them.

Currently, INVEST.94L has increasing shear to the north of it and some increasing shear to the west and northwest of it. See below...

[LarryWx]

Depending on the high breaking down, I think path 1 will be the more likely, but if the high breaks down then paths 2 and 3 will occur.


http://upload.fotofects.com/is.php?i=2455&img=94L.jpg

IF it were to become a TD+ east of 55W, climo since 1851 would say that path #1 (U.S. mainland hit) would have very little chance since no storm since 1851 that became a TD east of 55W after 9/25 later hit the U.S. mainland. For it to have a reasonable shot at hitting the mainland U.S., it would need to wait until 55W to first become a T.D. per climo.

[Hurricanehink]

It's too early to tell which one it will take. Once it organizes more, then you could tell. Good representation of the current info.