94L Invest E of Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cinlfla]

IMO, it looks like 94L may have some impact on the Islands if it continues to move westward, which mean No Fish

[skysummit]

IMO, it looks like 94L may have some impact on the Islands if it continues to move westward, which mean No Fish

Yup...even if it skims the northern most islands, it's not a fish.

[WXextreme]

im Guessing your on the wrong Subject?

I thought that at first but I think he is saying that October is a climatologically favored month for hurricanes hitting S. Florida...but those are hurricanes that originate from the SW Caribbean or GOM not in the middle of the Atlantic.

Exactly! Chris.

[LarryWx]

Regarding the chances of this system ever hitting the U.S.:

If it is first designated a T.D.+ east of 55W, I give it an extremely low chance of ever hitting any part of the U.S.
This is based on the fact that storm records going all the way back to 1851 show NO storms first designated as TD+'s east of 55W on or after 9/26 ever hit the U.S.

So, for it to ever have much of a chance to threaten the U.S., it would need to wait until after reaching 55W to first become a T.D. per climo.

[cycloneye]

Larry only to clarify about the US being hit by a cyclone during this time of the season you mean the US mainland right? I say that because in the Caribbean there are US Territories US Virgin Islands I and a commonwelth of the US which is Puerto Rico but I understand that you refer to the US Mainland.

As always good discussions that you make about climatology.

[LarryWx]

Larry only to clarify about the US being hit by a cyclone during this time of the season you mean the US mainland right? I say that because in the Caribbean there are US Territories US Virgin Islands I and a commonwelth of the US which is Puerto Rico but I understand that you refer to the US Mainland.

As always good discussions that you make about climatology.

Thanks Luis. Yes, whenever I say "U.S.", I'm only referring to the U.S. mainland. Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands have both been hit by storms forming east of 55W MUCH later than 9/25. For example, the 12th storm of 1878 formed on 11/25 and later hit both locations. Here is the storm track:

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF LOW PRES...1010 MB...IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 1150 NM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 9N42W AND
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 42W S OF 15N WHICH IS
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW IS NOT
VERY WELL-DEFINED AT THE MOMENT ALTHOUGH THERE IS A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION NOTED NEAR 8N43W. THE WAVE HAS A SHARP SIGNATURE AND
MOST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED N OF THE LOW ALONG
THIS AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN
38W-45W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM 4N-10N
BETWEEN 36W-46W. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION
CONSOLIDATES CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER OR A NEW LOW DEVELOPS
WITHIN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.


2 PM Discussion.I woke this morning looking at a more organized system than what it looks this afternoon.However it still has a slim chance to develop into a TD if the MLC stacks with the LLC as so far they are apart.But the signature still looks very good so let' see what happens but the trough in the central atlantic will play a key roll in the future of this system.

[caribepr]

My trip to the mainland has been postponed until the 13th, which depending on what happens...could be real interesting timing.
Oh well, I'd rather go blind looking at the computer here than away from home. (love the new/old look though!)

[calculatedrisk]

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 12Z OCT 6

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 8.9 42.2 275./14.9

STORM DISSIPATED AT 0 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

Formation is starting to look better (per NOAA) and this run says the opposite .... still too early.

[audioslave8]

94L does not look too hot. It is getting sheared apart. Too many low pressures to the north and west of the system to do anything soon. You can see the outflow on the water vapor image making the storm looking longated and disorganized. If the other low pressures in the Atlantic can ever fizzle out or get out the way we could see some development next week or so if something comes into play. This is why we have not seen more development in this active Hurricane season. There is just too much going on out there. Everything gets sheared apart or absorbed by other lows. I never have seen so much convection in a Hurricane season confined to all parts of the Atlantic in all my years of tracking storms. Any healthy wave that started to develop this year has had some kind of low pressure or stalled out front to the north, south, east, or west of it. That is why we probably have not seen any monster Hurricane Cape Verde storms this year as well. If things would have been calmer out in the Atlantic who knows how many Cat 4 and 5 storms we could of seen. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/WV/20.jpg http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/WV/20.jpg

[cycloneye]

06/1745 UTC 8.3N 42.8W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic Ocean


As I said in above post the trough nearby would play a key roll in the future of 94L and already it's doing it's work inducing shear and not permit organization to take place.As our friend Brent says when things go poof Storm Cancel.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL942005) ON 20051006 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051006 1800 051007 0600 051007 1800 051008 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.0N 43.1W 10.3N 45.7W 11.6N 47.9W 12.9N 49.7W
BAMM 9.0N 43.1W 10.2N 45.6W 11.4N 47.7W 12.3N 49.3W
A98E 9.0N 43.1W 9.1N 45.5W 9.5N 48.0W 10.1N 50.4W
LBAR 9.0N 43.1W 10.0N 45.5W 11.4N 47.7W 12.4N 49.8W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051008 1800 051009 1800 051010 1800 051011 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.2N 51.3W 16.5N 53.8W 18.4N 56.0W 19.2N 57.5W
BAMM 13.0N 50.7W 13.8N 53.7W 14.8N 56.9W 15.9N 59.9W
A98E 10.5N 52.6W 12.3N 56.6W 13.7N 60.1W 14.7N 63.2W
LBAR 13.5N 52.0W 15.7N 55.2W 18.4N 57.8W 19.7N 58.5W
SHIP 50KTS 57KTS 62KTS 64KTS
DSHP 50KTS 57KTS 62KTS 64KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.0N LONCUR = 43.1W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 8.8N LONM12 = 41.0W DIRM12 = 266DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 8.5N LONM24 = 37.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



18:00z Models for 94L.

[Anonymous]

Well...a few things I notice..

1. Ships almost make it Hurricane Vince
2. Track models are all now west-northwest into the Caribbean

[krysof]

Well...a few things I notice..

1. Ships almost make it Hurricane Vince
2. Track models are all now west-northwest into the Caribbean

once it escapes the shear, it will develop

[SouthFloridawx]

[gilbert88]

If the bottom model (the yellow one) turns out to be accurate, this could be very bad news for Hispaniola... SHIPS is forecasting a Hurricane.

[Brent]

This is just... lovely.

[Coredesat]

If the bottom model (the yellow one) turns out to be accurate, this could be very bad news for Hispaniola... SHIPS is forecasting a Hurricane.

The bottom one (the NHCA98E) is essentially a climo model. Ignore it.

[gatorcane]

Luis what do you think. This could be the one that impacts the Greater Antilles...

[krysof]

I'm now doubting if it will be a fish. It's moving westward at fast speeds, maybe aiming for the east coast.