94L Invest E of Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[gatorcane]

[jasons2k]

Regarding the chances of this system ever hitting the U.S.:

If it is first designated a T.D.+ east of 55W, I give it an extremely low chance of ever hitting any part of the U.S.
This is based on the fact that storm records going all the way back to 1851 show NO storms first designated as TD+'s east of 55W on or after 9/26 ever hit the U.S.

So, for it to ever have much of a chance to threaten the U.S., it would need to wait until after reaching 55W to first become a T.D. per climo.

How many times has climatology been defied this year? Wasn't Rita just the latest example by making landfall west of 90...many commented when it was still near the Bahamas if it made it anywhere near Texas it would be (and was) a first....almost every storm track for that time period went up the coast east of Florida. I think the futhest west was the Florida Big Bend area.

Not that I think this will make landfall in the US, just pointing out that in 2005 nothing would surprise me...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yet another central or eastern Atlantic system getting sheared to death.

[gatorcane]

it may be getting sheared some but there is a definite circulation to it. I think this has a very good chance of developing into a depression soon.

[skysummit]

It's not looking too good right now, but at least there's still a circulation. Maybe tonight, it'll blossom once more.

[krysof]

It's not looking too good right now, but at least there's still a circulation. Maybe tonight, it'll blossom once more.

It's going to enter a very unfavorable environment of 40 even 50 knot shear. Unless is quickly blossoms now, it won't have a chance later on.

[skysummit]

It's not looking too good right now, but at least there's still a circulation. Maybe tonight, it'll blossom once more.

It's going to enter a very unfavorable environment of 40 even 50 knot shear. Unless is quickly blossoms now, it won't have a chance later on.

It can blossom under shear...it just won't last very long

[cycloneye]

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN 900 MILES EAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS LIMITED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORBALE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.


10:30 PM TWO

bye 94.As some say Storm Cancel.The big trough has done it's work.

[skysummit]

...and we're all quiet again.

[Scorpion]

. Stupid shear.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

:grr: . Stupid shear.

I agree this season it has been very unfaverable out there.

[deltadog03]

BYE BYE 94L.....shear ya later

[rainstorm]

the ull will absorb 94L. i feel development is likely as the low moves west

[gatorcane]

I think that is it for that part of the Atlantic until next year. I'll focus now on the GOM and Caribbean, but more the Caribbean.

[Swimdude]

At least this one didn't disappoint us like TD 10/19.

[OURAGAN]

94 l will develop, convection is begining to refiring this morning.
The shear is not too strong now and will decrease soon.

[Steve H.]

Rainstorm, you said that 94L will be absorbed by the ULL, then you state that you think development is likely. I guess you meant the ULL will develop, not 94L??? I think we will get Vince and Wilma, but not from the ULL, but development in the Bahamas for Vince. Don't see anything affecting the CONUS though. Long range GFS shows nothing either. Maybe the season will fade away quietly.

[no advance]

Looks like it is busting the trough. It is hanging in there.

[skysummit]

Also looks to be more WNW now, unless the convection has my eyes deceived.

[BonesXL]

It looking better this morning....bears some watching, still.