#220 Postby Hyperstorm » Fri Oct 07, 2005 10:50 pm
I really haven't posted anything regarding this system over the past couple of days because there hasn't been much change in regards to my earlier thoughts on page 2 of this thread. However, tonight I have seen some interesting things going on.
First, the tropical wave has developed some very intense convection. Believe it or not, I see some signs of a very tiny low level circulation developing underneath it near 13N, 49W (that's a little further north than where the models were initialized at).
Second, the trough in the central Atlantic is finally drifting westward, just as forecast by the models 2 days ago. This trough is forecast to continue moving westward and park just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola for a few more days before lifting northward.
Third, the large upper-level high that was forecast to move westward by the GFS a couple of days ago, did do so. However, the tropical wave moved MUCH faster than anticipated early on. This has prevented the tropical wave from developing. If this system were located a few hundred miles to the east, we would already be talking about a tropical cyclone.
Currently, the tropical wave is under some southerly flow ahead of the central Atlantic trough (although it is NOT prohibitively strong). As I mentioned earlier, this trough is moving westward, so it's taking its southerly flow with it. If you take a loop at your favorite water vapor loop, you'll quickly notice that there is a HALT of the southerly and southwesterly flow ahead of the wave. You will also see that the movement of the wave has been much slower toward the west (not NW or WNW at this time). Conditions are now only marginally favorable, but if this system remains in its current slow pace, they will become more favorable as suggested by the GFS.
Also, take a look at the latest BAM models. They are showing a more westward turn late in the period. This was definitely foreseen by the models a few days ago with the synoptic environment that was forecast to be just right for that to happen (trough lifting out as high pressure moves west). All this means that this tropical wave must be watched closely, especially since we're seing some intense convection developing with it along with "signs" of a weak LLC developing (although it may not be closed).
As always, the timing of the movement of the central Atlantic trough and the movement of the tropical wave will be critical in regards to this wave's future development potential and track...Please don't dismiss it just yet.
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I think we will get Vince and Wilma, but not from the ULL, but development in the Bahamas for Vince. Don't see anything affecting the CONUS though. Long range GFS shows nothing either. Maybe the season will fade away quietly.
