22,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
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- cycloneye
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A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N58W...ABOUT
560 NM NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...MOVING NORTHWEST
5 TO 10 KT. ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 24N63W.
ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER MAY BE NEAR 26N57W.
THESE TWO LOWS ARE PART OF A BROADER AREA OF DEEP LAYER LOW
PRESSURE FROM 10N TO 35N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 26N
TO 30N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE CELLS NOW ARE SEEN A BIT TO THE WEST FROM 16N TO 17N
BETWEEN 63W AND 64W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 20N
BETWEEN 54W AND 56W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING UNDER THE RIDGE WHICH IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THIS
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 46W AND 49W.
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW...ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
WITH THE RIDGE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THIS TROUGH. AD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS
SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
8 AM Discussion.
560 NM NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...MOVING NORTHWEST
5 TO 10 KT. ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 24N63W.
ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER MAY BE NEAR 26N57W.
THESE TWO LOWS ARE PART OF A BROADER AREA OF DEEP LAYER LOW
PRESSURE FROM 10N TO 35N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 26N
TO 30N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE CELLS NOW ARE SEEN A BIT TO THE WEST FROM 16N TO 17N
BETWEEN 63W AND 64W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 20N
BETWEEN 54W AND 56W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING UNDER THE RIDGE WHICH IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THIS
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 46W AND 49W.
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW...ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
WITH THE RIDGE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THIS TROUGH. AD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS
SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
8 AM Discussion.
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- Hyperstorm
- Category 5
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- Location: Ocala, FL
There are no major signs of this system being subtropical at this time. Convection is still not very deep, but moderate and persistent. Believe it or not, conditions aloft are quite favorable for this one (as you can see by the expanding outflow in all quadrants), so it should intensify. This could very well become a hurricane over the next two days with such a favorable upper-level environment and warm SSTs.
I think a track toward the west and west-northwest initially appears likely. Later next week, it should start moving NW and northward. An easy way to predict short-term movements is by looking at the low-level clouds north of a tropical cyclone (This does not always work.) You can easily see the cloud movements just north of it toward the west initially, and then NW just west of Bermuda.
Bermuda should monitor this disturbance due to its proximity to them, as it is quite likely this system will become a tropical cyclone later today...
I think a track toward the west and west-northwest initially appears likely. Later next week, it should start moving NW and northward. An easy way to predict short-term movements is by looking at the low-level clouds north of a tropical cyclone (This does not always work.) You can easily see the cloud movements just north of it toward the west initially, and then NW just west of Bermuda.
Bermuda should monitor this disturbance due to its proximity to them, as it is quite likely this system will become a tropical cyclone later today...
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000
WONT41 KNHC 081241
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
845 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2005
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 490 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND THAT THE
SYSTEM MAY BE ACQUIRING SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE...A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
WONT41 KNHC 081241
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
845 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2005
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 490 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND THAT THE
SYSTEM MAY BE ACQUIRING SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE...A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
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- cycloneye
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL952005) ON 20051008 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051008 1200 051009 0000 051009 1200 051010 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.7N 58.5W 29.0N 60.8W 29.6N 63.6W 29.8N 66.4W
BAMM 27.7N 58.5W 29.0N 60.6W 30.0N 62.9W 31.0N 65.4W
A98E 27.7N 58.5W 29.7N 59.7W 30.8N 61.6W 30.7N 64.6W
LBAR 27.7N 58.5W 29.5N 59.6W 31.2N 61.1W 32.5N 62.6W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS 49KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051010 1200 051011 1200 051012 1200 051013 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.0N 69.1W 29.6N 72.4W 27.8N 72.3W 26.3N 70.7W
BAMM 32.2N 68.1W 34.7N 71.3W 37.6N 69.8W 38.9N 67.5W
A98E 30.5N 67.7W 31.6N 73.0W 32.9N 73.9W 34.3N 67.1W
LBAR 33.8N 64.0W 36.7N 65.4W 39.2N 62.0W 38.0N 55.6W
SHIP 52KTS 53KTS 49KTS 39KTS
DSHP 52KTS 53KTS 49KTS 39KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.7N LONCUR = 58.5W DIRCUR = 340DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 24.7N LONM12 = 57.4W DIRM12 = 345DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 23.3N LONM24 = 56.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
12:00z Models.
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- cycloneye
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL222005) ON 20051008 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051008 1200 051009 0000 051009 1200 051010 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.7N 58.5W 29.0N 60.8W 29.6N 63.6W 29.8N 66.4W
BAMM 27.7N 58.5W 29.0N 60.6W 30.0N 62.9W 31.0N 65.4W
A98E 27.7N 58.5W 29.7N 59.7W 30.8N 61.6W 30.7N 64.6W
LBAR 27.7N 58.5W 29.5N 59.6W 31.2N 61.1W 32.5N 62.6W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS 49KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051010 1200 051011 1200 051012 1200 051013 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.0N 69.1W 29.6N 72.4W 27.8N 72.3W 26.3N 70.7W
BAMM 32.2N 68.1W 34.7N 71.3W 37.6N 69.8W 38.9N 67.5W
A98E 30.5N 67.7W 31.6N 73.0W 32.9N 73.9W 34.3N 67.1W
LBAR 33.8N 64.0W 36.7N 65.4W 39.2N 62.0W 38.0N 55.6W
SHIP 52KTS 53KTS 49KTS 39KTS
DSHP 52KTS 53KTS 49KTS 39KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.7N LONCUR = 58.5W DIRCUR = 340DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 24.7N LONM12 = 57.4W DIRM12 = 345DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 23.3N LONM24 = 56.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
The difference between what I posted at above post is (AL95L) vs now (AL22L) meaning this is a TD now.
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- cycloneye
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Thunder44 wrote:I just noticed that Luis. Then why does it still say TD Invest in the header?
Thunder no more speculation as NRL has it now as 22.

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- wxwatcher91
- Category 5
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- cycloneye
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I decided to let this thread continue open as it does not have over 10 pages so go ahead and comment about the new cyclone in the atlantic basin.
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cycloneye wrote:Thunder44 wrote:I just noticed that Luis. Then why does it still say TD Invest in the header?
Thunder no more speculation as NRL has it now as 22.
I didn't actually think they weren't going to upgrade it. I was just wondering why it still says invest in the header. I wonder if they are going to classify it tropical or subtropical.
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- cycloneye
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Yeah that's the only question tropical or subtropical but looking at it I say tropical.
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- cycloneye
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Thunder also I think that they made the decision to upgrade this morning because of the proximity to Bermuda apart that the system looks very good on sat pics.


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- cycloneye
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- wxwatcher91
- Category 5
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