Subtropical Depression 22: Last Advisory Written

[cycloneye]

Well here comes #22 of the season.First advisory at 11 AM.

[HURRICANELONNY]

CAN YOU ELABORATE?

[cycloneye]

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL222005) ON 20051008 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051008 1200 051009 0000 051009 1200 051010 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.7N 58.5W 29.0N 60.8W 29.6N 63.6W 29.8N 66.4W
BAMM 27.7N 58.5W 29.0N 60.6W 30.0N 62.9W 31.0N 65.4W
A98E 27.7N 58.5W 29.7N 59.7W 30.8N 61.6W 30.7N 64.6W
LBAR 27.7N 58.5W 29.5N 59.6W 31.2N 61.1W 32.5N 62.6W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051010 1200 051011 1200 051012 1200 051013 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.0N 69.1W 29.6N 72.4W 27.8N 72.3W 26.3N 70.7W
BAMM 32.2N 68.1W 34.7N 71.3W 37.6N 69.8W 38.9N 67.5W
A98E 30.5N 67.7W 31.6N 73.0W 32.9N 73.9W 34.3N 67.1W
LBAR 33.8N 64.0W 36.7N 65.4W 39.2N 62.0W 38.0N 55.6W
SHIP 52KTS 53KTS 49KTS 39KTS
DSHP 52KTS 53KTS 49KTS 39KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.7N LONCUR = 58.5W DIRCUR = 340DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 24.7N LONM12 = 57.4W DIRM12 = 345DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 23.3N LONM24 = 56.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



NRL and the models have the upgrade and the first advisorie will be at 11 AM EDT.

[EFrancis]

Anyone think we'll see Vince today?

[Derek Ortt]

there is nothing in the official ATCF file to suggest the upgrade. It is still being called an invest there, but as we have seen earlier this year, there are times when nothing is announced, but it is just called

[Buck]

Anyone think we'll see Vince today?

Probably so..

[Brent]

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222005
1500Z SAT OCT 08 2005

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 59.0W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 59.0W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 58.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 29.2N 60.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 30.4N 63.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 31.2N 66.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 32.3N 68.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 34.0N 71.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 36.0N 72.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 37.0N 72.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 59.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

081434
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005

...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.0 WEST OR
ABOUT 450 MILES... 725 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. A
SHIP NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE
OF 1009.5 MB...29.81 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...28.1 N... 59.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

Subtropical Depression 22, the first of the season of its kind!

[Brent]

[cycloneye]

TCDAT2
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSIRE AREA SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CALLED A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION...
SUBTROPICAL INSTEAD OF TROPICAL DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH A
LARGE-MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE CENTER IS
LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF A CENTRAL CONVECTIVE FEATURE...
WITH AN ELONGATED OUTER BAND IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25-30 KT FROM TAFB AND 35-40 KT
FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS A BLEND OF THESE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 320/13...UNCERTAIN
BECAUSE WHILE THE OVERNIGHT MOTION WAS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THE LAST
FEW IMAGES SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD THE LEFT. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A LARGE
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO
THE SOUTH. AFTER 48 HR OR SO...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES LOW
CONFIDENCE AS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD APPEARS IN THE GUIDANCE. IF THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE RIGHT...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL FORM
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION...WHICH
COULD STEER THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE
NEW LOW IS SLOWER TO FORM OR TROUGHING CONTINUES ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AS SUGGESTED BY THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH. THE TRACK
FORECAST AFTER 48 HR WILL CALL FOR A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN AT A
DECREASING FORWARD SPEED ON THE PREMISE THAT THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WITH ABOUT 10 KT OF SHEAR. THE
SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO SOME PULSES OF
SHEAR DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS...AND THEN UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT
SHEAR AFTER THREE DAYS. THE GFDL AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL
LOSE THE SYSTEM IN 36-72 HR. ALL OF THIS...COMBINED WITH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 26C-27C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SUGGEST
THE CYCLONE COULD STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...WITH
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KT IN 48 KT. IF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE
CORRECT ON THE FORMATION OF THE SECOND LOW...OR IF THE SHIPS MODEL
IS CORRECT ABOUT THE SHEAR...THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST AFTER 72 HR. THERE IS A CHANCE THE CYCLONE
COULD FULLY TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 28.1N 59.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 29.2N 60.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 30.4N 63.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 31.2N 66.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 32.3N 68.3W 50 KT
72HR VT 11/1200Z 34.0N 71.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 12/1200Z 36.0N 72.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 13/1200Z 37.0N 72.0W 40 KT

[cycloneye]

If the forecast track is right the mid atlantic east coast does not have to worrie but further north maybe.

[HURAKAN]

Subtropical Depression Twenty-Two Intermediate Advisory Number 1a


Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on October 08, 2005



...Depression moving west-northwestward with little change in
strength...

a tropical storm watch remains in effect for Bermuda.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of subtropical depression
twenty-two was located near latitude 28.6 north...longitude 59.9
west or about 385 miles... 620 km...southeast of Bermuda.

The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph...24
km/hr. This general motion should continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and the depression could become a subtropical or tropical storm
later today or tonight.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.

Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...28.6 N... 59.9 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.

Forecaster Beven

[Terrell]

What's the difference between a Subtropical depression/storm and a Tropical Depression/Storm? Can a subtropical depression become a tropical depression/storm or a hurricane?

[HURAKAN]

What's the difference between a Subtropical depression/storm and a Tropical Depression/Storm? Can a subtropical depression become a tropical depression/storm or a hurricane?

Subtropical or hybrid, means that it has characteristics of tropical and extratropical cyclones.

Yes, they can become tropical like Subtropical Storm Gustav in 2002 became Hurricane Gustav. Usually subtropical systems don't reach hurricane intensity, they must become tropical to reach hurricane status.

[Terrell]

What's the difference between a Subtropical depression/storm and a Tropical Depression/Storm? Can a subtropical depression become a tropical depression/storm or a hurricane?

Subtropical or hybrid, means that it has characteristics of tropical and extratropical cyclones.

Yes, they can become tropical like Subtropical Storm Gustav in 2002 became Hurricane Gustav. Usually subtropical systems don't reach hurricane intensity, they must become tropical to reach hurricane status.

Thank you for the info.

[AJC3]

What's the difference between a Subtropical depression/storm and a Tropical Depression/Storm? Can a subtropical depression become a tropical depression/storm or a hurricane?

Subtropical or hybrid, means that it has characteristics of tropical and extratropical cyclones.

Yes, they can become tropical like Subtropical Storm Gustav in 2002 became Hurricane Gustav. Usually subtropical systems don't reach hurricane intensity, they must become tropical to reach hurricane status.

Keep in mind that a subtropical cyclone is not exactly the same thing as a hybrid cyclone. I see the terms used interchangably here, and while sometimes it is corectly used, many times it is not. Hybrids can have frontal features, or be interacting with fronts, while subtropical cyclones are, by definition, non-frontal.

If you want me to confuse you even more, think of it like this...

All subtropical cyclones are hybrids, however not all hybrid cyclones are subtropical.

The July 6-7, 2002 cyclone which raced NE-ward through the western Atlantic is a good example of a hybrid cyclone that was not subtropical.


From Gary Padgett's monthly summaries...

http://mpittweather.com/txt/jul02sum.txt

Sable Island Storm of 7 July
----------------------------

During the first few days of July a broad surface trough extended
northeastward from the east coast of Florida for several hundred miles.
Widespread cloudiness and showers were present within the trough, and
by 5 July an area of disturbed weather about 200 nm southeast of the
North Carolina coast had begun to show some signs of organization.
By the evening of the 5th the system was moving northeastward and its
organization had continued to improve. The Tropical Weather Outlook
at 06/0230 UTC noted that there was a potential for further development
during the next 12 to 24 hours before it became absorbed by a frontal
system. By the late morning of 6 July, however, the disturbance had
merged with a front several hundred miles east-northeast of Cape
Hatteras.

On the evening of 7 July I received an e-mail (along with several
other persons) from Chris Fogarty of Environment Canada, stationed
at the Newfoundland Weather Centre at Gander. Chris described a small
disturbance which had passed near Sable Island earlier that morning,
bringing gale-force winds to the island as well as to some oil rigs
in the vicinity. Chris indicated that he had noted a mass of deep
convection in infrared imagery the evening before in the southwesterly
flow near Bermuda--clearly in a sheared environment--but it had held
its form and was quasi-symmetric. Chris was of the opinion that it
looked like a tropical cyclone in transition. Earlier on the morning
of the 7th, Tony Cristaldi of the Melbourne NWS office had sent around
an e-mail calling attention to a small, persistent CDO-like feature
near 40N, 63W, and moving rapidly northeastward. Tony was of the
opinion that it was traceable to the small circulation that was trying to
form off Cape Hatteras on 5-6 July.

Sable Island recorded its peak winds of 36 kts from the southeast,
gusting to 43 kts, at 1200 UTC on the 7th. Winds gusted near or above
gale force from around 1128 to 1300 UTC. A sounding taken there at
1200 UTC indicated three wind maxima exceeding 70 kts: 76 kts at
914 m (900-mb level), 72 kts at approximately 5800 m (500-mb level),
and 72 kts at around 12800 m (200-mb level). Winds decreased to
around 55 kts at intermediate altitudes between the maxima. Station
LIPI (43.3N, 59.8W) recorded east winds of 40 kts at 1200 UTC. Tony
Cristaldi sent me some observations from Canadian buoy 44137 taken
as the center of the LOW passed to its west and north. At 1000 UTC the
buoy reported southeast winds of 37 kts with a MSLP of 1007 mb. (The
distance of the buoy from the LOW's center is unknown to the author.)

Chris had sent a goodly amount of data to Jack Beven at TPC/NHC,
and a couple of days later Jack offered his opinion of the system.
Tropical characteristics exhibited by the cyclone included a small, tight
center of circulation; the impressive convective mass with cloud tops
exceeding -70 C; and evidence of spiral banding seen in radar
imagery. On the extratropical side of the fence, satellite imagery on 6
and 7 July indicated that the center of the LOW was entangled with a
cold front. Surface observations indicated that some degree of
temperature gradient was present throughout the life of the cyclone.
Jack also felt that the triple wind maxima noted in the Sable Island
sounding was not very characteristic of a warm-core system, at least
not over a deep layer. Also, the 500-mb temperature of -11.7 C was
rather cold for a tropical cyclone.

In the final analysis Jack's conclusion was that the system was some
sort of frontal hybrid with winds of at least 40 kts and a central
pressure below 1005 mb. The presence of the front would disqualify the
cyclone from classification as a subtropical or tropical cyclone and it
will not be included in the 2002 season totals. Jack notes that "even
if it wasn't a tropical cyclone, it sure had ideas about becoming one."

(Note: No track for this system was available for inclusion in the July
cyclone tracks file.)

(Report written by Gary Padgett)

[hurricanefreak1988]

We haven't used up the entire name list yet, but I'd be willing to bet we've already broken the record for most systems in a season- 22... and counting. Is that correct?

[Brent]

We haven't used up the entire name list yet, but I'd be willing to bet we've already broken the record for most systems in a season- 22... and counting. Is that correct?

The number 22 has never been used, so yes.

[Brent]

000
WTNT22 KNHC 082035
TCMAT2
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222005
2100Z SAT OCT 08 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA TONIGHT.

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 60.8W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 60.8W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 60.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 30.1N 62.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 31.1N 65.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.9N 67.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.0N 69.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 34.5N 72.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 36.0N 72.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 37.5N 72.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 60.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$