22,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#101 Postby **Lowpressure** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 9:19 am

I am thinking a Carolina issue this time around. Cold front not making it through as far or as strong as first thought.

Website · #102 Postby **Brent** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 9:21 am

wxwatcher91 wrote:
Brent wrote::eek:

Looks like an East Coast problem.

could be but I doubt it. we have a strong front coming through and the majority of the models are showing 22 pushed out to sea by the front...

...still... be watchful along the coast just in case.

Yeah... looks too close to call right now. Although, if this pathetic front is any indication of the next one, I wouldn't bank on it.

#103 Postby **Noah** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 9:23 am

Whats the chances of this coming across central florida?

Website · #104 Postby **Brent** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 9:24 am

Noah wrote:Whats the chances of this coming across central florida?

Virtually zero. This would be a Carolina or Mid-Atlantic problem if it's a problem for the U.S.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #105 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 9:26 am

Lowpressure wrote:I am thinking a Carolina issue this time around. Cold front not making it through as far or as strong as first thought.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Although its early to tell, I also think this may be a Carolina/East
Coast Issue. The cold fronts have fizzled out as they leave
the coast- and models often tend to over-estimate the strength
of cold fronts.

#106 Postby **Noah** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 9:31 am

Brent wrote:
Noah wrote:Whats the chances of this coming across central florida?

ANything else behind it???

Virtually zero. This would be a Carolina or Mid-Atlantic problem if it's a problem for the U.S.

Thunder44 · #107 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 9:36 am

TPC is calling this sub-tropical right now.

#108 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 9:41 am

For those newbie members if this subtropical depression is upgraded to a storm it will be named as it were a pure tropical system so Vince name is on the horizon leaving Wilma as the last in the list to then pass to the greek alphabet.

Thunder44 · #109 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 9:48 am

One Flight has been scheduled for tomorrow in this storm:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 081430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
1030 AM EDT SAT 08 OCT 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z OCT 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-133

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 22
A. 09/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0122A CYCLONE
C. 09/1330Z
D. 31.2N AND 66.4W
E. 09/1700Z TO 10/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

WindRunner · #110 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 9:55 am

So . . . this is the one and only 22L, first ever.

#111 Postby **bvigal** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 10:10 am

Is anyone else getting absolutely NOTHING at NRL?
(yes I know about FNMOC)

#112 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 10:11 am

bvigal wrote:Is anyone else getting absolutely NOTHING at NRL?
(yes I know about FNMOC)

NRL is having problems again.For me it does not do anything.

#113 Postby **Noah** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 10:19 am

Any chances of this going more west?

NastyCat4 · #114 Postby **NastyCat4** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 10:31 am

Any chances of this going more west?

NO

#115 Postby **cjrciadt** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 10:46 am

The models say Recurve but........

#116 Postby **Noah** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 10:47 am

NastyCat4 wrote:
Any chances of this going more west?

NO

wow. was that a big fat now? seemed loud

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #117 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 10:48 am

WindRunner wrote:So . . . this is the one and only 22L, first ever.

Record Smashing 2005 continues...this year has been crazy :eek:

#118 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 10:50 am

cjrciadt wrote:The models say Recurve but........

Can we say, models are in disagreement!

#119 Postby **lester** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 10:51 am

Brent wrote:
Noah wrote:Whats the chances of this coming across central florida?

Virtually zero. This would be a Carolina or Mid-Atlantic problem if it's a problem for the U.S.

if it doesn't turn north, it will :eek:

#120 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 11:43 am

STD 22 doesn't seem to be organizing right now, but the opposite. The center is becoming exposed. Vince will have to wait for a pulse of convection.

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