Big Rain Event is over for Puerto Rico,USVI,BVI

[caribepr]

Well...we didn't even get half a day. The rain started as soon as I got to Dinghy Dock for a coffee before opening the cart. It is now one hour later, I'm back home. The roads are flooded out, my yard is covered (as in flooded) in water, and it is slowing down, but not stopping. I'd say we got maybe 4 or more inches of rain in one hour? Mr. Kunke, who keeps track of our rain here, will tell the amount on Stormcarib I'm sure.
And...this isn't even the event...on the radar, it just looked like a cell directly over Culebra. WAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH. Ok, I feel better now. I think we are...well...the cart is CLOSED.

Wow it started very early there and you said it right the big stuff is not yet on sight yet.

Which is kind of scary, Luis. The sun is out now, it's just drizzling but I'm looking out my front door and water is rushing by the step. I hope we have a few hours to let it run out before the official bad rain comes

[knotimpaired]

I can see we are going to have to hold onto our hats here in Vieques.

We have already had 9.88" for the month. This could be a record October rainfall if this keeps up.

[gerrit]

Thanks for the heads-up! I guess I better go out and mow the front yard before it starts

Stay dry everybody!

[cycloneye]

Thanks for the heads-up! I guess I better go out and mow the front yard before it starts

Stay dry everybody!

Welcome to the forum.Where you are in Puerto Rico? I live in Santurce.

[gerrit]

I've been reading for some time now - really appreciate this forum!

I'm up in the mountains in Valenciano Arriba - Juncos - close to Las Piedras.

[cycloneye]

I've been reading for some time now - really appreciate this forum!

I'm up in the mountains in Valenciano Arriba - Juncos - close to Las Piedras.

Ok good,Watch out there for possible mudslides and flash floodings as that area always has problems when it pours bigtime.

[gerrit]

We will.. I hope power and telephone won't be affected.. No internet is bad in this house

[artist]

everyone there stay safe!

[cycloneye]

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR PUERTO RICO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 8 2005

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MOST OF THE CLOUDS HOWEVER WERE IN
THE MID TO HIGH LEVELS AND CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER THE LOCAL REGION
FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR DURING THE MORNING HOURS SHOWED MOST OF THE SHOWERS WERE
OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...WHILE A FEW
SHOWERS BRIEFLY REACHED THE MONA PASSAGE AND NORTHWEST SHORES OF
PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS PARTS OF CULEBRA AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE.
THE WIND REMAINED LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN SLOPES...AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERAL OF THESE MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH
COULD LEAD TO URBAN AND STREAM FLOODING IN ISOLATED AREAS. THE
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS
WILL BEGIN ANOTHER PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WET WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...THAT IS EXPECTED TO LAST A LEAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A STRONG AND LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PERSISTS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC...AND EXTENDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
REGION...WHILE SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD. THIS IS A VERY ENERGETIC
UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND HAS ALL THE RIGHT INGREDIENTS IN PLACE TO
CREATE VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP UNDERNEATH OF THIS UPPER LOW...AND WILL
ACCOMPANY IT AS IT MOVES WEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A VERY
COMPLEX PATTERN OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND WILL BRING ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL AGAIN COMBINE WITH THIS STRONG
UPPER LOW TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND NUMEROUS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF
EXTREME TROPICAL RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...DAY OR
NIGHT...ACROSS ANY OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS OR WATERS. LOCAL RESIDENTS
AND VISITORS ARE THEREFORE URGED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR COPIOUS RAINFALL...AND RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING.

MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO BE DOMINATED ACROSS THE OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC BY MODERATE NORTHEAST SWELLS...KEEPING SEAS AROUND 6 FEET.
AS THIS WEATHER SCENARIO EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTH SOUTHWEST BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY...AND COULD BECOME STRONG...IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE. MARINERS REMAIN ALERT FOR INTENSE AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.



The above is the latest update from the NWS in San Juan.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looks very wet down the road for parts of the Carribean

[schmita]

Hi everyone,

Well, it was a bright blue hot sunny morning. Got the shopping in.
It is now very grey, swirling winds, not sure what direction it is coming from and raining.
Not at all like the usual afternoon shower I might add.
Time to check for leaks.
Later
irina

[cycloneye]

-025-047-051-061-063-127-135-137-139-143-145-082100-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
230 PM AST SAT OCT 8 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
DORADO
CAGUAS
COROZAL
AGUAS BUENAS
GURABO
SAN JUAN
TOA ALTA
TRUJILLO ALTO
VEGA ALTA
BAYAMON
GUAYNABO
VEGA BAJA
TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 500 PM AST

* AT 223 PM AST...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR AND THE PUBLIC REPORTED
VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE WARNED
AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES CAN BEEN EXPECT
TO MOVE ACROSS AND AFFECT THESE AREAS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SO FAR
HAS BEEN IN AND AROUND THE VEGA BAJA...VEGA ALTA...TOA BAJA...AND
FURTHER EAST ACROSS PARTS OF BAYAMON...GUAYNABO...GURABO AND PARTS
OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO VEGA
BAJA...VEGA ALTA...TOA BAJA...SAN ANTONIO...SABANA SECA...RIO
LAJAS...SAN JOSE...TOA ALTA...PAJAROS...MONSERRATE...LEVITTOWN...
INGENIO...GUAYNABO...GALATEO...CANDELARIA ARENAS...CANDELARIA...
CAMPANILLA AND BAYAMON.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
ROADS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS
ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG RIVERS...STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE
IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. RAPID RISES IN
RIVER LEVELS ARE LIKELY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING
WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 1844 6620 1838 6608 1827 6596 1826 6608
1836 6637 1846 6644

$$

RAM/GR



This is one of the warnings issued this afternoon.I lost power for more than 2 hours due to a strong thunderstorm that moved thru my area.

[cycloneye]

VIC010-082230-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
347 PM AST SAT OCT 8 2005

AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN EFFECTIVE UNTIL 630 PM AST
SATURDAY EVENING FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES AND
ISLANDS

IN PUERTO RICO
VIEQUES

IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT CROIX

AT 342 PM AST...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR...AS WELL AS A LOCAL
WEATHER SPOTTER IN SAINT CROIX INDICATED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF THESE ISLANDS. AT
LEAST THROUGH 630 PM ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS
THESE AREAS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THESE SHOWERS WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS...GUTS...ROADS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...ROADS AND LAND
ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO
FLOODING. ALSO...MINOR MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN.

IF YOU LIVE IN OR ARE PASSING THROUGH THE ADVISORY AREA...YOU SHOULD
AVOID CROSSING FLOODED ROADS AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR
DESTINATION. YOU SHOULD NEVER ATTEMPT TO DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY...AS CARS CAN EASILY STALL
IN THE WATER AND BE CARRIED AWAY IN ANY CURRENT. REMEMBER...
VISIBILITIES ARE GREATLY REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN. YOU SHOULD STAY AWAY
FROM RISING GUTS...CREEKS AND STREAMS.

$$

MITCHELL



More warnings are poping up.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 PM AST SAT OCT 8 2005

...POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...

.DISCUSSION...THE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ACROSS THE
SUB TROPICAL ATLANTIC...ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA WAS
CLASSIFIED AS SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY TWO THIS MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH A LARGE AND VERY ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO OVER
THE WEEKEND. ACCORDING TO MODEL DATA...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA
SHOULD FORM NORTHEAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND VERY CLOSE TO
THE EASTERN TIP TONIGHT. THIS SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
VERY CLOSE OR JUST OVER PUERTO RICO ON SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL. THIS VERY WET AND UNSTABLE WEATHER SCENARIO IS FORECAST TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. ALL THE
DYNAMIC WILL BE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE
COLUMBUS WEEKEND.

LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THIS
DEVELOPING AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING WEATHER EVENT.


The latest discussion looks not promising at all.

[cycloneye]

For all who are in the US and around the world look what is going on in the NE Caribbean in the radar.

[cycloneye]

The weather began to go downhill where I am In San Juan around 1:30 PM when dark clouds began to build to my south and they were moving north.Thunder at the distance was the first salvo that began the bad weather.It all spread fast and a very heavy thunderstorm moved thru the San Juan Metroflex area with plenty of lighting and very noisy thunder. A few minutes after all that action began the power went off in my area that did not comed back around two hours later.The Street in front of the condo was semiflooded but other areas were much more affected by the flooding.Right now as I post this light to moderate rain is falling.

But folks this is only the start of the big stuff that is supposed to affect the NE Caribbean thru tuesday so let's see what will occur in the next 24-36 hours.Folks dont worrie for me as I am dry all the time in the 5th floor of condo.

Send a prayer from around the world to us in the NE Caribbean and hopefully nothing tragic occurs with all of this event.

[cycloneye]

Look what happens in 24 hours according to GFS.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
711 PM AST SAT OCT 8 2005

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-091400-
/X.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0004.051008T2311Z-051010T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN AND ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...BAYAMON...
CAROLINA...CATANO...GUAYNABO...SAN JUAN...TOA ALTA...TOA BAJA...
TRUJILLO ALTO...CEIBA...CANOVANAS...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...LOIZA...
LUQUILLO...NAGUABO...RIO GRANDE...ARROYO...GUAYAMA...MAUNABO...
PATILLAS...SALINAS...YABUCOA...AGUAS BUENAS...CAGUAS...CAYEY...
CIDRA...COMERIO...GURABO...JUNCOS...LAS PIEDRAS...SAN LORENZO...
ARECIBO...BARCELONETA...DORADO...FLORIDA...MANATI...VEGA ALTA...
VEGA BAJA...AIBONITO...BARRANQUITAS...CIALES...COAMO...COROZAL...
JAYUYA...MOROVIS...NARANJITO...OROCOVIS...VILLALBA...GUAYANILLA...
JUANA DIAZ...YAUCO...PENUELAS...PONCE...SANTA ISABEL...AGUADILLA...
CAMUY...HATILLO...ISABELA...QUEBRADILLAS...ADJUNTAS...LARES...
LAS MARIAS...MARICAO...SABANA GRANDE...SAN SEBASTIAN...UTUADO...
AGUADA...ANASCO...HORMIGUEROS...MAYAGUEZ...MOCA...RINCON...
SAN GERMAN...CABO ROJO...GUANICA...LAJAS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...
ST THOMAS ST JOHN AND ADJACENT ISLANDS...ST CROIX
711 PM AST SAT OCT 8 2005

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR

* ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

* UNTIL LATE SUNDAY EVENING

* AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOUT 400 MILES NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST. SPIRALING INTO ITS CORE IS A WIDE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE TRAVELING OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
LEAVING ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER MANY AREAS OF THE WATCH
AREA. BUT THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL KEEP THE WATCH AREA
SATURATED AND VULNERABLE TO MUDSLIDES. TOMORROW THUNDERSTORMS WITH
MUCH HEAVIER RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE AREA CREATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONSIDERABLE FLOODING AND MORE MUDSLIDES.


* HEAVIER RAINS WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO SWELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...
AND WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS INUNDATIONS OF HIGHWAYS...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ANYWHERE PERSISTENT RAIN HAS BEEN
FALLING...WHETHER HEAVY OR NOT...WILL BE VULNERABLE TO MUDSLIDES
THAT MAY COVER HIGHWAYS...COLLAPSE FROM UNDER HOMES OR
BUSINESSES. IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL MAY
CAUSE GUTS TO RUN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO BRING WATER INTO
STRUCTURES NEARBY.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS
OBSERVED...IF SOILS BEGIN CRACKING AROUND YOUR HOME OR IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY
DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. TRAVELING AT NIGHT IS PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS AND SHOULD BE AVOIDED IF AT ALL POSSIBLE. DANGERS IN THE
THE ROADWAYS MAY NOT BECOME APPARENT UNTIL IT IS TOO LATE. NEVER
TRY TO SWIM IN SWOLLEN RIVERS...THE POWERFUL CURRENTS CAN PULL YOU
OVER ROCKS AND INTO OBSTACLES RENDERING YOU UNCONSCIOUS AND UNABLE
TO SWIM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.


Flash Floood watch until sunday evening.

[gerrit]

We hardly had rain until now.. It's cloudy, just a little shower in the afternoon..

Not that I'm complaining

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 090320
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1118 PM AST SAT OCT 8 2005

.UPDATE...THE STRONG UPPER LOW IS NOW ABOUT 400 MILES NORTH OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY...APPARENTLY TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SPIRALING AROUND THE CORE...BRINGING
UP WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST...BUT ALSO BRINGING IN
AN ARM OF DRY AIR THAT CAN BE SEEN WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW OVER THE
TOP OR NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK. THE PRECISE
POSITION OF THE LOW IS ALLOWING FOR CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE AT UPPER
LEVELS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS UPPER DIVERGENCE IS FAVORING STRONG
CONVECTION WHICH HAS BEEN FORMING OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CROSSING SAINT
CROIX WHERE A LOCAL SPOTTER HAS RECORDED OVER 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN...ALMOST HALF OF WHICH HAS FALLEN SINCE 8 PM. ALSO SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTAINED GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH THAT
HAVE AFFECTED SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT CROIX. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO
OBSERVED ON RADAR OVER SAINT JOHN. LIGHT RAIN HAS CONTINUED OVER
MANY AREAS OF PUERTO RICO...AND THIS HAS NOT ALLOWED SOILS TO DRAIN.

AS WOULD BE EXPECTED THE SOUNDING AT 00Z WAS QUITE MOIST...AND AS
SOMETIMES OCCURS IN OCTOBER...WINDS ALL HAD A WESTERLY COMPONENT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS 2.2 INCHES...AND ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LIFTED
INDEX WAS ONLY MINUS 1.6 THE BEST LIFTED INDEX WAS FROM A LAYER NEAR
950 MB AND HAD A LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 5.7.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INSTABILITY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OVER
THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EARLY EVENINGS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA FROM THE BAND OF CONVECTION THAT
CONTINUES TO SPIRAL INTO THE UPPER LOW. SO...ALTHOUGH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NUMBER 22 HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...AND ALTHOUGH UP TO NOW THE LOW PRESSURE THAT THE GFS WANTS
TO SPIN UP OVER THE AREA HAS NOT BEEN OBSERVED...THE AREA CONTINUES
TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. WHILE
THIS COULD KEEP MOIST AIR MOVING IN OVER THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONSIDERABLE FLOODING...THE STRONG SHEAR OVER THE AREA WILL
LIMIT ANY SYSTEM FROM DEVELOPING INTO A FULL-FLEDGED TROPICAL
STORM...FOR NOW.


Above is the latest from the NWS San Juan about the complex situation that is leading into a big rain event for the next 24-48 hours.