Invest 96L Near Az Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#21 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Oct 08, 2005 2:05 pm

It still holds a 3.0St

Still looks good appears to have a eye!
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15
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#22 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Oct 08, 2005 2:56 pm

296
WHXX01 KWBC 081903
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM INVEST (AL962005) ON 20051008 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051008 1800 051009 0600 051009 1800 051010 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 33.1N 20.1W 33.4N 20.0W 34.2N 19.3W 35.5N 16.9W
BAMM 33.1N 20.1W 33.6N 19.7W 34.7N 18.8W 36.1N 16.7W
A98E 33.1N 20.1W 33.2N 19.1W 34.1N 17.4W 36.2N 15.6W
LBAR 33.1N 20.1W 33.8N 19.0W 35.4N 17.4W 37.5N 15.0W
SHIP 45KTS 48KTS 50KTS 51KTS
DSHP 45KTS 48KTS 50KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051010 1800 051011 1800 051012 1800 051013 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 37.9N 12.4W 44.3N 4.1W 51.6N .0W 58.8N 1.3E
BAMM 38.4N 13.4W 44.8N 5.6W 52.1N .3E 58.7N 4.2E
A98E 38.5N 11.4W 39.7N 4.0W 42.0N 2.6E 44.7N 11.0E
LBAR 39.2N 11.3W 40.5N 3.6W 39.7N .8E 40.4N 4.9E
SHIP 53KTS 55KTS 55KTS 52KTS
DSHP 53KTS 43KTS 32KTS 32KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 33.1N LONCUR = 20.1W DIRCUR = 80DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 32.9N LONM12 = 20.6W DIRM12 = 84DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 33.4N LONM24 = 22.8W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 60NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

It says "Tropical Storm Invest" on the header. An upgrade at 5pm?
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#23 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Oct 08, 2005 3:04 pm

It is initialized at 45 knots?
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#24 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2005 3:20 pm

We will know very soon if we have a subtropical cyclone.
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#25 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 08, 2005 3:40 pm

Image

Subtropical Storm Warming for Portugal coast?!?
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#26 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 08, 2005 3:42 pm

WOW...

I'm checking and don't see anything official on it(as far as being a TD or TS goes). I'll keep refreshing. :lol:
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#27 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2005 3:47 pm

Dont expect an advisorie at 5 PM because now I saw the header of the models that says AL96 and not AL23 :)
Last edited by cycloneye on Sat Oct 08, 2005 3:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#28 Postby TheEuropean » Sat Oct 08, 2005 3:48 pm

Here is another pic from University of Dundee (2pm EDT:

<IMG SRC="http://www.saevert.de/bilder/051008azoren8.jpg">

It's late in the evening here in europe, I will see tomorrow, what's up with 96L...
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#29 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 08, 2005 3:50 pm

cycloneye wrote:Dont expect an advisorie at 5 PM because now I saw the header of the models that says AL96 and not AL23 :)


Yep... it's 4:50pm and nothing.
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#30 Postby mtm4319 » Sat Oct 08, 2005 3:50 pm

I doubt this will get named.
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#31 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Oct 08, 2005 3:58 pm

cycloneye wrote:Dont expect an advisorie at 5 PM because now I saw the header of the models that says AL96 and not AL23 :)


It wouldn't say "AL23" because it would probably go straight to sub-tropical storm status, since it already has winds estimated 45kts.
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#32 Postby P.K. » Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:00 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Subtropical Storm Warming for Portugal coast?!?


lol, the BAMM goes right over my house!

This was showing up on the Dvorak estimates earlier in the week as subtropical.
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#33 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:02 pm

Thunder44 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Dont expect an advisorie at 5 PM because now I saw the header of the models that says AL96 and not AL23 :)


It wouldn't say "AL23" because it would probably go straight to sub-tropical storm status, since it already has winds estimated 45kts.


Then what would the header say apart from the words (Tropical Storm Invest)?
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#34 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:08 pm

Image
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#35 Postby JTD » Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:27 pm

Unbelievable!!!!

A subtropical cyclone forming and about to threaten Europe. Has this ever happened before? I would assume that usually they just get the remnants of CV storms?
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#36 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:31 pm

A NEARLY STATIONARY AND NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE CANARY ISLANDS HAS CHANGED
LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS OVER RELATIVELY COLD
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES... SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SOMEWHAT
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
MONITORED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SIGNS OF SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EVEN COLDER WATERS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

5:30 PM TWO
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#37 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 pm

Door closing really fast .....
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#38 Postby P.K. » Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:35 pm

Certainly looks interesting on the sat images, see http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=24287&posts=29
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#39 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Oct 08, 2005 5:08 pm

The only reason they are not upgrading is because there is no offical thinking on what is making this subtropical. Research needs to be done...In then hopefully this will be added to this years total. Theres no quastion in my mind that this is a subtropical storm.
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#40 Postby Coredesat » Sat Oct 08, 2005 5:20 pm

I think the trough associated with this feature is what's keeping them from upgrading.
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