Invest 96L Near Az Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Also a new burst of convection has formed over the northwestern quad.
http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Also check out as I say the 85h data.

[TheEuropean]

Here is another pic by University of Dundee:

<IMG SRC="http://www.saevert.de/bilder/storm2k/051009madeira8.jpg">

It is still looking crazy with a persisting eye. The island of Madeira will shortly feel the effects of that rain band on the eastern side of this "whatever-storm".

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I hope the people on that island is ready for a cyclone. They might be saved by the fact it is moving northeastward.

[TheEuropean]

I hope the people on that island is ready for a cyclone. They might be saved by the fact it is moving northeastward.

Hi Matt,

there are no severe weather warnings active für that island:

http://www.meteo.pt/SAM/index.html (green means no warning)

But most severe weather will stay of the island, you're right. But this is very unusual. They now have 10 ft sea near the island with huge waves.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

09/0600 UTC 33.2N 19.6W ST3.0/3.0 96

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Hopefully the upgrade will come this morning.

[TheEuropean]

First visible pic:

<IMG SRC="http://www.saevert.de/bilder/storm2k/051009madeira12.jpg">

Banding, eyewall, eye - what must hapen to be upgraded...?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I personally do not know. Everything I'v looked at supports this as a upgradeble cyclone. For the love of god why is this not upgraded. I don't have a clue on why...

[THead]

Good question, core of the storm looks strong enough to be named for sure.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The only thing I can think of is, they are outside of there control. In which they have to ask the Met office of Europe if they can upgrade. Other wise I don't know.

[James]

I would have thought that because it was still in the North Atlantic basin that it would be under the NHC's jurisdiction, though I might be wrong.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'v just learned one thing, if its where this system is. Don't ever expect a upgrade. WOW!

[THead]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutintro.shtml

Through international agreement, the TPC has responsibility within the World Meteorological Organization to generate and coordinate tropical cyclone analysis and forecast products for twenty-four countries in the Americas, Caribbean, and for the waters of the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and the eastern North Pacific Ocean. TPC products are distributed through a close working relationship with the media and emergency management communities.

To meet its mission the TPC is composed of three branches. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) maintains a continuous watch on tropical cyclones from 15 May in the eastern Pacific and 1 June in the Atlantic through November 30. The Center prepares and issues forecasts, watches and warnings within text advisories and graphical products. Although many countries issue their own warnings, they generally base them on direct discussions with, and guidance from, the NHC. During the "off-season", the NHC conducts an extensive outreach and education program, training U.S. emergency managers and representatives from many other countries affected by tropical cyclones.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Also it would need minus 80 cloud tops. In a clear eye with a red ring of convection. With a sab t number of 5.0!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't think you can make it much more tropical. You can't get a major hurricane over these cool waters.

[Cookiely]

Pro Mets,
When you get a chance could you give us your thoughts on 96L and why it has not been declared a tropical cyclone or subtropical or anything? If it looks like a duck, and walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck?? I don't understand?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think theres to many different options on whats makes a tropical cyclone. In a system like this is some what different then your normal system. Even so it works alot like a normal cyclone=warm core+tight wind field. I think it has something to do with a colder Atmosphere to the cool ocean. Meaning the levels of the Atmosphere is colder above the surface while sst are still allowed to fuel a half way warm core system. But with all these options the nhc is not going to upgrade. At least what I heard.

Also the latest satellite shows a new wraping of deep convection around the eye.

[P.K.]

The only thing I can think of is, they are outside of there control. In which they have to ask the Met office of Europe if they can upgrade. Other wise I don't know.

It would be down to the NHC as there is no Met Office of Europe.

The KNMI (Dutch) have this area down as

COMMA: [3216W] Clear comma structures, frequent Sflocs.
Connected with ULL and cyclonic vorticity

The NHC are currently saying

A NEARLY STATIONARY AND NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE CANARY ISLANDS.
THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND IS OVER
RELATIVELY COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF ACQUIRING MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
BEFORE IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EVEN COLDER WATERS DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I really don't understand how you can get it more tropical then this.

[P.K.]

Well I do think it looks more comma like this morning, bit odd to get a comma over this high SSTs isn't it though? First visible image of the morning should be in fairly soon.