Vince,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #61 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 11:48 am

krysof wrote:wow , Vince looks good considering its location. SST's are only 23, maybe 24 degrees, but it still developed

Vince is one crazy critter...such an amazing eye...

HurricaneGirl · #62 Postby **HurricaneGirl** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 11:50 am

http://intellicast.com/Local/USNationalWide.asp?loc=usa&seg=StormCenter&prodgrp=SatelliteImagery&product=AtlanticLoop&prodnav=none
Stange.

MzShell · #63 Postby **MzShell** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 11:51 am

Hurricanehink wrote:
Actually, this is a brand new system in the east Atlantic near Portugal!

Okayyyy....A new storm? I've been unable to view S2K for 2 days.Boy am I lost. All I had was the NHC. S2K is my favorite weather site so I didnt bother w/ Weather underground. So was Vince 96L and then suddenly upgraded to a tropical storm? I've miss so much. Cant keep up w/this crazy season.

Duffy · #64 Postby **Duffy** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 11:52 am

yes, 96L became Vince

chadtm80 · #65 Postby **chadtm80** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 11:54 am

MzShell wrote:
Hurricanehink wrote:
Actually, this is a brand new system in the east Atlantic near Portugal!

Okayyyy....A new storm? I've been unable to view S2K for 2 days.Boy am I lost. All I had was the NHC. S2K is my favorite weather site so I didnt bother w/ Weather underground. So was Vince 96L and then suddenly upgraded to a tropical storm? I've miss so much. Cant keep up w/this crazy season.

Yeppers.. And thanks for the kind words on our site :-)

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #66 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 11:55 am

chadtm80 wrote:
MzShell wrote:
Hurricanehink wrote:
Actually, this is a brand new system in the east Atlantic near Portugal!

Okayyyy....A new storm? I've been unable to view S2K for 2 days.Boy am I lost. All I had was the NHC. S2K is my favorite weather site so I didnt bother w/ Weather underground. So was Vince 96L and then suddenly upgraded to a tropical storm? I've miss so much. Cant keep up w/this crazy season.

Yeppers.. And thanks for the kind words on our site

STORM2K ROCKS-- WOOOHOOO!!!! :wink:

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #67 Postby **senorpepr** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 12:15 pm

Taking a look at the UKMO (the better model for European storms)... looks like a slow drift and filling trend toward the northeast. The Azores shouldn't see anything out of Vince. The Canaries should see some thunderstorms and gusty winds from him.

By 10-Oct/12Z, Vince should begin to fill as a cold front that extends from near Iceland through the North-Central Atlantic nears the cyclone.

By 11-Oct/00Z, Vince should appear as a "pre-frontal trough" as it approaches the Portugese Coast.

By 12-Oct/00Z, the bulk of the "Vince" energy should be passed to a parent low along the frontal train. This parent low will enter the Bay of Biscay with the northern extent of the frontal train giving the UK some precip. The remnants of Vince should then cross either southern France or northern Spain and see a bit of weakening from interaction with the Pyrenees Mountains.

By 14-Oct/00Z, the northern end of the front will exit the UK, bringing coastal Norway some wind and rain. The remnants of Vince will begin to regenerate in the Gulf of Genoa and could become a significant rain producer (not as a tropical cyclone, of course) for Italy and the Balkans. Meanwhile, another powerful occluded front will be marching in from the Atlantic to give Western Europe another round of rain and wind.

#68 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 12:21 pm

Is it my imagination or does Vince seem quite small? (Like he can fit inside of Katrina or Rita's eyewall) Are there any projections for him to strengthen any, since he is over cooler water?

Edit: He already looks like a cane...is he one?

f5 · #69 Postby f5 » Sun Oct 09, 2005 12:24 pm

vince looks like a hurricane send EU recon aircraft

NCHurricane · #70 Postby **NCHurricane** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 12:31 pm

Let's here it for Vince. Despite where he is, he still got it together. 8-)

Chuck
http://www.nchurricane.com

#71 Postby **senorpepr** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 12:45 pm

Vince is not a hurricane, nor will it. It's structure is somewhat like a subtropical cyclone. STCs tend to develop eyes easier than pure-TCs.

Now... before ya'll start letting your freak-flags fly... I know it is listed as a TS, not a STS. However, look at the discussion:

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOT APPARENT ON SATELLITE ANIMATIONS...
BUT A 07Z AMSU OVERPASS REVEALS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WARM CORE. CYCLONE
PHASE SPACE ANALYSES FROM FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY INDICATE THIS SYSTEM
IS SYMMETRIC AND NOT VERY FAR ON THE COLD CORE SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM.

It's about midway between TC and STC status.

HurricaneGirl · #72 Postby **HurricaneGirl** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 12:58 pm

Vince is the epitome of a "stormlette".

superfly · #73 Postby **superfly** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 1:11 pm

Awesome system forming in such cold waters.

#74 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 1:18 pm

A PRELIMINARY EXAMINATION
SUGGESTS THIS IS THE FARTHEST EAST AND NORTH A TROPICAL CYCLONE
HAS EVER FORMED IN THE BASIN.

The above from the 2 PM Discussion.

Wow another record for the 2005 season as this is the farthest east and more north cyclone that has ever formed in the atlantic basin.

#75 Postby **Buck** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 1:24 pm

Incredible!

#76 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 1:25 pm

THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON SEEMS TO HAVE LITTLE INTEREST IN CLIMATOLOGY. -- NHC

#77 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 1:26 pm

f5 wrote:vince looks like a hurricane send EU recon aircraft

lol, I highly doubt there are any even with the amount of money the EU takes from us. :lol:

Does look like we are going to get some rain out of this though as has been said.

Thunder44 · #78 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 1:42 pm

Dvorak says it's a tropical cyclone and a hurricane now:

09/1800 UTC 34.1N 18.9W T4.0/4.0 VINCE

Airforce numbers are lower though:

TPNT KGWC 091805 COR
A. TROPICAL STORM VINCE (TWENTY-THREE)
B. 09/1731Z (104)
C. 34.0N/7
D. 19.0W/0
E. THREE/MET5
F. T2.5/2.5/STT: S0.0/3HRS -09/1731Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

15A/PBO TCB/ANMTN. CNVTCN WRAPS .50 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. FINAL T BASED ON DT. PT YIELDS
3.0.

COR SENT AT 09/1807Z. COR SENT FOR LINE E.

AODT: T3.3/SHEAR

SCHULTZ

#79 Postby **HenkL** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 1:55 pm

Portuguese meteo has issued a storm warning (Vento forte) for the Madeira islands, east of Vince. Funchal had sustained wind 6 Bft, Porto Santo had wind gust 54 kmh (62 mph).

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #80 Postby **senorpepr** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 1:56 pm

Thunder44 wrote:Dvorak says it's a tropical cyclone and a hurricane now:

09/1800 UTC 34.1N 18.9W T4.0/4.0 VINCE

Airforce numbers are lower though:

TPNT KGWC 091805 COR
A. TROPICAL STORM VINCE (TWENTY-THREE)
B. 09/1731Z (104)
C. 34.0N/7
D. 19.0W/0
E. THREE/MET5
F. T2.5/2.5/STT: S0.0/3HRS -09/1731Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

15A/PBO TCB/ANMTN. CNVTCN WRAPS .50 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. FINAL T BASED ON DT. PT YIELDS
3.0.

COR SENT AT 09/1807Z. COR SENT FOR LINE E.

AODT: T3.3/SHEAR

SCHULTZ

I went down the hall and spoke with Schultz a bit ago... 2.5-3.0, but nothing more than that. Chance of this becoming a hurricane are fairly low.

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