EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) October 6, 2005

[CaptinCrunch]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
October 6, 2005


Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected during the next 3-6 months.

By the end of September, equatorial SST anomalies greater than +0.5ºC were found between 160ºE and 170ºE, while negative anomalies less than –0.5ºC were observed at most locations between 130ºW and the South American coast (Fig. 1). The SST departures in the Niño 3,and Niño 1+2 regions were negative, while weak positive departures were observed in the Niño 4 and Niño 3.4 regions (Fig. 2). During the last three months surface and subsurface temperature anomalies decreased, especially in the eastern equatorial Pacific, while. atmospheric conditions (low-level winds, convection and sea level pressure) remained near average over most of the tropical Pacific.

The large spread of the most recent statistical and coupled model forecasts (weak La Niña to weak El Niño) indicates considerable uncertainty (Fig. 3). However, current conditions and recent observed trends support a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions for the next 3-6 months.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
October 6, 2005


Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected during the next 3-6 months.

By the end of September, equatorial SST anomalies greater than +0.5ºC were found between 160ºE and 170ºE, while negative anomalies less than –0.5ºC were observed at most locations between 130ºW and the South American coast (Fig. 1). The SST departures in the Niño 3,and Niño 1+2 regions were negative, while weak positive departures were observed in the Niño 4 and Niño 3.4 regions (Fig. 2). During the last three months surface and subsurface temperature anomalies decreased, especially in the eastern equatorial Pacific, while. atmospheric conditions (low-level winds, convection and sea level pressure) remained near average over most of the tropical Pacific.

The large spread of the most recent statistical and coupled model forecasts (weak La Niña to weak El Niño) indicates considerable uncertainty (Fig. 3). However, current conditions and recent observed trends support a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions for the next 3-6 months.

Looks like our wild tropical ride will continue if enso is neutral...