22,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

fasterdisaster · #141 Postby **fasterdisaster** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 6:20 pm

Looks really crappy, but it is sliiiiiightly better organized than 4-6 hours ago.

Weatherfreak14 · #142 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 6:52 pm

Yeah I agree. :idea:

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #143 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 6:58 pm

I think theres a new LLC forming right under the convection. I think it has become slightly better organized.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

#144 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 7:46 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO (AL222005) ON 20051009 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051009 0000 051009 1200 051010 0000 051010 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.2N 62.1W 29.5N 64.9W 29.3N 67.6W 28.8N 69.9W
BAMM 29.2N 62.1W 29.7N 64.4W 29.8N 66.9W 30.1N 69.5W
A98E 29.2N 62.1W 29.0N 66.3W 28.5N 68.9W 27.0N 70.3W
LBAR 29.2N 62.1W 30.1N 64.9W 30.7N 67.1W 31.0N 69.0W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 35KTS 39KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 35KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051011 0000 051012 0000 051013 0000 051014 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.0N 71.3W 25.3N 71.9W 26.5N 65.9W 31.6N 61.3W
BAMM 29.9N 71.5W 28.2N 72.6W 26.0N 69.1W 26.7N 63.9W
A98E 25.7N 70.6W 24.6N 69.2W 25.9N 65.4W 28.0N 62.6W
LBAR 31.2N 71.0W 31.5N 72.6W 32.9N 72.8W 33.8N 72.2W
SHIP 41KTS 43KTS 44KTS 37KTS
DSHP 41KTS 43KTS 44KTS 37KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.2N LONCUR = 62.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
LATM12 = 27.8N LONM12 = 58.5W DIRM12 = 322DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 24.7N LONM24 = 57.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

For those who like to see the tropical model runs here is the 00:00z run for 22.

fasterdisaster · #145 Postby **fasterdisaster** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 7:54 pm

Does it mean anything that they said "Tropical Depression Twenty-Two", or would it say that anyway?

fasterdisaster · #146 Postby **fasterdisaster** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 7:57 pm

Getting slightly better organized. Doesn't look ASTOUNDING, but I don't think this is dying.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #147 Postby **senorpepr** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 7:58 pm

fasterdisaster wrote:Does it mean anything that they said "Tropical Depression Twenty-Two", or would it say that anyway?

It'll say that anyway...

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #148 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 8:04 pm

We may see Vince late tommorrow given its gradual
reorganization...

#149 Postby **storms in NC** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 9:06 pm

it is really pulling up all that moister up from the south.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/WV/20.jpg

#150 Postby **Noah** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 9:07 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:We may see Vince late tommorrow given its gradual
reorganization...

Nothings coming are way tamp bay..we have been missed underus over us north of us and east of us.

Hyperstorm · #151 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 9:48 pm

I should have looked at more data before commenting earlier today that the system would be having favorable conditions over the next couple of days. That is NOT the case. The Upper-level low north of Puerto Rico has strengthened quite a bit today and in fact, looking at shear maps, it appears that the shear will not decrease anytime soon. Only a burst of convection could give this a name.

Regarding the classification of this being subtropical or tropical... As I mentioned this morning, this system doesn't have major signs of being subtropical. In fact, it looks like a sheared tropical depression or storm. As the forecaster on duty mentioned, it was classified subtropical due to it being somewhat associated with the upper-level low north of Puerto Rico. As this cyclone moves away from it and becomes separated, it will be classified tropical only IF it re-fires convection near the center.

The track I suggested earlier still seems to be in fairly good standing. Watch for any signs of convection developing...

#152 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 9:53 pm

Hyperstorm wrote:I should have looked at more data before commenting earlier today that the system would be having favorable conditions over the next couple of days. That is NOT the case. The Upper-level low north of Puerto Rico has strengthened quite a bit today and in fact, looking at shear maps, it appears that the shear will not decrease anytime soon. Only a burst of convection could give this a name.

Regarding the classification of this being subtropical or tropical... As I mentioned this morning, this system doesn't have major signs of being subtropical. In fact, it looks like a sheared tropical depression or storm. As the forecaster on duty mentioned, it was classified subtropical due to it being somewhat associated with the upper-level low north of Puerto Rico. As this cyclone moves away from it and becomes separated, it will be classified tropical only IF it re-fires convection near the center.

The track I suggested earlier still seems to be in fairly good standing. Watch for any signs of convection developing...

Hyperstorm I dont know if you saw the latest advisorie at 11 PM but it is the last one written for this system.

Hyperstorm · #153 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 9:56 pm

Cycloneye, I have just looked at the final advisory on this system. It really has not come to a surprise due to this system being completely devoid of convection near the center and VERY unfavorable easterly winds due to the strong upper-low north of Puerto Rico. This does not look to relax anytime soon. However, my earlier comments still stand. If this could get a deeper burst of convection over the well-defined low-level circulation, this could get re-classified and even named.

As long as it remains a low-level circulation over warm SSTs anything is possible...

#154 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 08, 2005 10:25 pm

This thread will remain open as I locked the advisorie thread with the last advisorie for this system written.Any more comments about this short lived system are welcomed.Now the question arises,Will it regenerate down the road or the remanant low will not get organized again?

Thunder44 · #155 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 9:44 am

It's been generating spurts of convection this morning that's been trying to move over the center but the shear prevents from doing so. I do expect this to reform again once it can move far enough from that upper-level low.

#156 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 12:33 pm

Thunder44 if that burst of convection manages to wrap around the low then regeneration may occur but of course there is the big upper low to it's SE imparting shear.

Thunder44 · #157 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 12:55 pm

Luis, it looks like Franklin did earlier in the season out there.

#158 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 2:11 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO (AL222005) ON 20051009 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051009 1800 051010 0600 051010 1800 051011 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.8N 65.0W 30.0N 67.6W 30.0N 69.5W 29.8N 70.8W
BAMM 29.8N 65.0W 30.5N 67.7W 31.0N 70.1W 31.3N 72.0W
A98E 29.8N 65.0W 30.1N 66.9W 29.4N 68.8W 28.6N 70.1W
LBAR 29.8N 65.0W 30.4N 66.9W 30.8N 68.7W 31.3N 70.4W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051011 1800 051012 1800 051013 1800 051014 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.6N 71.1W 30.0N 68.2W 32.0N 65.5W 35.2N 63.2W
BAMM 31.5N 73.0W 30.0N 72.9W 26.7N 71.8W 24.2N 69.7W
A98E 28.0N 70.0W 26.0N 69.1W 25.0N 66.6W 26.4N 64.4W
LBAR 31.5N 71.6W 33.1N 72.0W 35.2N 71.4W 36.7N 69.6W
SHIP 38KTS 42KTS 45KTS 44KTS
DSHP 38KTS 42KTS 45KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.8N LONCUR = 65.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 29.3N LONM12 = 63.1W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 28.8N LONM24 = 60.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Umm they did a run on this system.

Thunder44 · #159 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 2:18 pm

Luis, Remember this line form the last TPC discussion on this storm:

THIS SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO
ABATE ANY TIME SOON... SO REGENERATION APPEARS UNLIKELY... BUT THE
REMANT LOW WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE SEEMINGLY REMOTE POSSIBILITY
OF DEVELOPING NEW CONVECTION.

SamSagnella · #160 Postby **SamSagnella** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 2:34 pm

I wouldn't be surprised to see some redevelopment from the remnants of STD 22.

As of around 19z on sunday, the system has some deep convection located to the SW of an exposed LLC -- well south of Bermuda. I am impressed that the system has been able to maintain this level of organization with such strong NNWly shear over the area, but, even in this harsh upper-level environment, the UW-CIMMS satellite-based intensity estimates as of 1845z today are T2.1 or 31kt.

This system should continue to be steered generally to the NW over marginally sufficient SSTs of 27-28C and with already impressive organization at this point, I would imagine that with any relaxation of the upper-level winds (a lot to ask for at this point), a further increase in strength would be observed. Like I said above, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see advisories reinitiated on this system sometime later today or tonight. Will we see Wilma from this system?

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