Vince,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[P.K.]

I went down the hall and spoke with Schultz a bit ago... 2.5-3.0, but nothing more than that. Chance of this becoming a hurricane are fairly low.

As high as the chance of passing directly over London?

[senorpepr]

I went down the hall and spoke with Schultz a bit ago... 2.5-3.0, but nothing more than that. Chance of this becoming a hurricane are fairly low.

As high as the chance of passing directly over London?

Something like that.

[Thunder44]

499
WHXX01 KWBC 091900
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM VINCE (AL232005) ON 20051009 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051009 1800 051010 0600 051010 1800 051011 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 34.1N 18.9W 35.0N 16.0W 37.0N 11.2W 39.3N 6.0W
BAMM 34.1N 18.9W 35.6N 16.7W 37.9N 13.2W 41.0N 9.3W
A98E 34.1N 18.9W 34.5N 17.7W 35.0N 14.7W 36.4N 10.6W
LBAR 34.1N 18.9W 35.4N 16.9W 36.8N 13.9W 38.3N 10.1W
SHIP 60KTS 63KTS 62KTS 61KTS
DSHP 60KTS 63KTS 62KTS 61KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051011 1800 051012 1800 051013 1800 051014 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 41.3N 1.2W 40.4N 7.8E 37.1N 15.9E 33.7N 22.6E
BAMM 44.7N 6.5W 52.1N 3.0W 58.8N 1.8E 59.8N 11.8E
A98E 36.9N 6.1W 31.9N 1.3E 29.6N 7.6E 32.5N 11.3E
LBAR 38.6N 6.2W 38.4N .4E 38.8N 5.6E 47.3N 3.6W
SHIP 58KTS 52KTS 44KTS 36KTS
DSHP 58KTS 52KTS 30KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 34.1N LONCUR = 18.9W DIRCUR = 40DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 33.4N LONM12 = 19.6W DIRM12 = 44DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 33.1N LONM24 = 20.1W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 991MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 70NM RD34SE = 70NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 60NM

18z models initialized at 60kts, with a pressure of 991mb.

[senorpepr]

Well then... looks like the chances of Vince becoming a hurricane just went up. Better watch out there in London.

[Derek Ortt]

Mike,

I have to strongly disagree with Schultz's estimate. There seems to be enough of a temp gradient between the eye wall and the eye to justify more than 35KT. I wouldn't go as far as a hurricane without an obs justifying it though. Maybe a 3.5

[P.K.]

Wow, possibly a good thing I'm curently 60km west of London in Reading then. (If it does go that way I may have to go home though, lol)

[krysof]

499
WHXX01 KWBC 091900
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM VINCE (AL232005) ON 20051009 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051009 1800 051010 0600 051010 1800 051011 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 34.1N 18.9W 35.0N 16.0W 37.0N 11.2W 39.3N 6.0W
BAMM 34.1N 18.9W 35.6N 16.7W 37.9N 13.2W 41.0N 9.3W
A98E 34.1N 18.9W 34.5N 17.7W 35.0N 14.7W 36.4N 10.6W
LBAR 34.1N 18.9W 35.4N 16.9W 36.8N 13.9W 38.3N 10.1W
SHIP 60KTS 63KTS 62KTS 61KTS
DSHP 60KTS 63KTS 62KTS 61KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051011 1800 051012 1800 051013 1800 051014 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 41.3N 1.2W 40.4N 7.8E 37.1N 15.9E 33.7N 22.6E
BAMM 44.7N 6.5W 52.1N 3.0W 58.8N 1.8E 59.8N 11.8E
A98E 36.9N 6.1W 31.9N 1.3E 29.6N 7.6E 32.5N 11.3E
LBAR 38.6N 6.2W 38.4N .4E 38.8N 5.6E 47.3N 3.6W
SHIP 58KTS 52KTS 44KTS 36KTS
DSHP 58KTS 52KTS 30KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 34.1N LONCUR = 18.9W DIRCUR = 40DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 33.4N LONM12 = 19.6W DIRM12 = 44DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 33.1N LONM24 = 20.1W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 991MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 70NM RD34SE = 70NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 60NM

18z models initialized at 60kts, with a pressure of 991mb.

Maybe this will be a hurricane, it's so close.

[senorpepr]

Mike,

I have to strongly disagree with Schultz's estimate. There seems to be enough of a temp gradient between the eye wall and the eye to justify more than 35KT. I wouldn't go as far as a hurricane without an obs justifying it though. Maybe a 3.5

Right... I'd argee with you there. I've had a zoom on Vince blown up on our projector screen all day. (Amazing looking storm for being so close to the Iberian Peninsula) I saw XOGM's Dvorak estimate and it perked my interest. I had to walk down and see what they had to say.

NHC has initalized with 60KT... that would be ~T3.75, T3.5 would have been a better estimate, in my opinion.

[senorpepr]

Wow, possibly a good thing I'm curently 60km west of London in Reading then. (If it does go that way I may have to go home though, lol)

I'm thinking the chances are still fairly low for this to come up to the UK. Looks like that cold front to your west will kick Vince into either Spain or France.

[P.K.]

I agree Mike, I just like the thought of being able to chase a TC over SE England.

[senorpepr]

I agree Mike, I just like the thought of being able to chase a TC over SE England.

Oh... no doubt! That would be something else. I guess it's something like seeing Rita's outbands and rain edge by us here in Nebraska. (Hey... it's the best I have!)

[ChaserUK]

well BAMMS has this thing going directly over Jersey - this island is no more than 45 square miles and the S/ SW facing coast is oh id say about 5 meters from my house!

[ChaserUK]

Wow, possibly a good thing I'm curently 60km west of London in Reading then. (If it does go that way I may have to go home though, lol)

I'm thinking the chances are still fairly low for this to come up to the UK. Looks like that cold front to your west will kick Vince into either Spain or France.

...or Jersey!

[P.K.]

Matt you may not have been able to get across to the USA this year to chase a storm so maybe this one is chasing you down?

[ChaserUK]

LOL feels like it - now would that not be sooo bizarre! Still cannot get my head around this to be honest.

[cjrciadt]

[ChaserUK]

OK so now two models have this heading our way. Not sure what some of the other models are thinking however!!!!

[DoctorHurricane2003]

I particularly like the LBAR

*sarcasm* heh

[ChaserUK]

gonna have to keep an eye on this - the spanish or french coast is a short hop to St Marlo and then a 3/4 hour drive!

[cycloneye]

He is now a cane of 75 mph.Go to advisorie thread.And I say WOW!!!.