Vince,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Derek Ortt · #141 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 5:22 pm

if anything, Dvorak is too low for these types of storms when verified by recon

#142 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 5:27 pm

Shame there won't be any recon of this for research purposes.

#143 Postby **HenkL** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 5:37 pm

They did have a kind of recon on Becky in 1962. From the NHC archives:

[img]ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archives/atlantic/prelimat/atl1962/becky/draft4.gif[/img]

WindRunner · #144 Postby **WindRunner** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 5:50 pm

Now that's some high-tech recon. :lol:

weunice · #145 Postby **weunice** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 6:16 pm

The January 1995 Mediterranean 'Hurricane' - any similarities to this moreso than a traditional hurricane?

HurricaneGirl · #146 Postby **HurricaneGirl** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 6:16 pm

Holy Crap! :eek:

#147 Postby **HenkL** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 6:31 pm

K. Emanuel published June 2005 in 'Advances in Geosciences' an article about 'Genesis and maintenance of "Mediterranean hurricanes"'.
You can read it here: http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/adgeo/2/adgeo-2-217.pdf

fasterdisaster · #148 Postby **fasterdisaster** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 6:36 pm

Vince has a nice satellite presentation, of course it's very small so it isn't very intense, but if this simply expanded out further with the same eye and core presentation, it would be looking like a major hurricane.

NOTE: I am not in any way, shape, or form implying that Vince is a major hurricane, because it ISN'T.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #149 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 6:44 pm

How do you know its not stronger? It has a well defined eye + a well defined cdo/outflow. It looks like a 80 knot hurricane to me.

fasterdisaster · #150 Postby **fasterdisaster** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 6:46 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:How do you know its not stronger? It has a well defined eye + a well defined cdo/outflow. It looks like a 80 knot hurricane to me.

Same here, I think it's stronger than 65 knots, but obviously not a major.

Derek Ortt · #151 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 6:48 pm

not sure why you are saying that if it had a larger size, it would have higher winds, when a larger storm has a weaker pressure gradient

#152 Postby **senorpepr** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 6:49 pm

FWIW...

Code: Select all

Current Intensity Analysis

                     UW - CIMSS                     
          ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                AODT - Version 6.4.3                
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  09 OCT 2005    Time :   223000 UTC
      Lat :   34:22:23 N     Lon :   18:22:36 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.0 /1000.0mb/ 45.0kt

     
     Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP :  +0.0mb

      6hr-Avg T#  3hr-Avg T#   Adj T#   Raw T# 
         2.7         2.8        2.4      2.2

 Eye Temp :  +4.4C       Cloud Region Temp : -32.0C

 Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.33 ARC in MD GRAY 

 Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION 

 Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC      
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC  

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
                   Weakening Flag : WEAKEN

fasterdisaster · #153 Postby **fasterdisaster** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 6:51 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:not sure why you are saying that if it had a larger size, it would have higher winds, when a larger storm has a weaker pressure gradient

I meant that smaller storms with weak intensities tend to sometimes have a well defined eye. (Recently: Otis and Kenneth in the Pacific)

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #154 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 6:54 pm

Keneneth was a cat4...Charley and Andrew both where small with small eyes. These storms can be very powerful. The south Atlantic hurricane was alot like this one...

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #155 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 7:34 pm

.1 north/.7 east from 6 hours ago.

09/2300 UTC 34.2N 18.3W T4.0/4.0 VINCE

Almost due east...

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #156 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 7:42 pm

TPNT KGWC 100030 COR
A. HURRICANE VINCE (TWENTY-THREE)
B. 09/2331Z (104)
C. 34.1N/8
D. 18.5W/4
E. ONE/MET7
F. T4.0/4.0/STT: D1.5/09HRS -09/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR

05A/ PBO 20NM RGD EYE/ANMTN. DVOARK CNSTRNTS BKN FOR RPD DVLPMT
OVR PAST 6-9HRS. WMG EYE IS SURROUNDED BY A 35NM WIDE OW RING...
GIVING AN EYE NBR OF 4.0 WITH ZERO EYE ADJ...FOR A CF/DT OF 4.0.
FT IS BASED ON DT...PT AGREES. COR FOR SATL TYPE IN LINE E.
COR SENT...10/0033Z.

AODT: T3.1 (CRVD BND)

LAURENTI

#157 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 7:44 pm

What if it entered the Mediterranean and redeveloped there? Now that would be something! Of course, I am just happy of where it is right now.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #158 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 7:48 pm

Just think if this headed due eastward through that channel. Then into the Mediterranean...Would the nhc issue Advisories if that happen?

Website · #159 Postby **Brent** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 7:50 pm

Why does NRL have it at 25 kt... 34.0 N 19.0 W??? :?:

Scorpion · #160 Postby **Scorpion** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 7:53 pm

Wow, looks beautiful. Imagine if it went into the Mediterranean and went all the way to Israel. That would be something else. Wishful thinking of course.

Vince,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Who is online