MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2327
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0456 PM CDT FRI OCT 07 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 831...
   
   VALID 072156Z - 072300Z
   
   THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
   REMAINING PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 831 FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  NO
   ADDITIONAL WW IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   AS OF 2140Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A MESOSCALE CIRCULATION
   CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 35 WSW OF SAV MOVING NNEWD AT AROUND 20 KTS.
   PER LIGHTNING DATA AND OBSERVED REFLECTIVITY VALUES...CONVECTION
   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS SHALLOW AND DISORGANIZED.
   
   SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CAE TO CHS AND SAV INDICATE A
   COMPARATIVELY WARMER AND MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE
   AHEAD OF THIS CIRCULATION WHICH IS RESULTING POCKETS OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/.  THUS...SOME POTENTIAL
   EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT AS LOCALIZED FORCING
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION ACTS ON THIS INSTABILITY.  GIVEN THE
   MOIST AND MODERATELY SHEARED BOUNDARY-LAYER...SOME THREAT EXISTS FOR
   SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
   BECOME ESTABLISHED.
   
   AFTER 23Z...EXPECT ANY ONGOING STORMS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
   EVENING AS BOUNDARY-LAYER GRADUALLY COOLS AND STABILIZES.
   
   ..MEAD.. 10/07/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...
   
   33048105 32168035 31618116 32448187

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2328
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0240 PM CDT SUN OCT 09 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 091940Z - 092145Z
   
   ...STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TX THROUGH LATE
   AFTERNOON.  WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WW...
   
   PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO WEST TX
   HAS AIDED RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF TSTM ACTIVITY OVER CULBERSON
   COUNTY.  EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS HAVE FORCED
   A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS E-W SOUTH OF THE MAF
   AREA...ENHANCING SHEAR ON COOL SIDE OF WIND SHIFT.  GREATEST CONCERN
   AT THIS TIME IS FOR GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   WITH DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES EAST AT ROUGHLY 35MPH. INK
   AND POSSIBLY MAF WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY THIS CONVECTION.  OTHER
   STRONG STORMS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS INTO REGION
   OF STEEP LAPSE RATES JUST SOUTH OF WIND SHIFT. INSTABILITY
   DECREASES MARKEDLY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
   RAPID WEAKENING EAST OF 103 DEG LONGITUDE.
   
   ..DARROW.. 10/09/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ...
   
   30750518 31960372 32040222 31350216 30740333 29940458

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2330
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0741 PM CDT SUN OCT 09 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL CO/SERN WY
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 100041Z - 100645Z
   
   ...VIGOROUS WINTER STORM IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES WITH
   THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE...
   
   CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS INDICATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
   REGION ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS...WITH 70-90 KT UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM
   WRN AZ INTO THE GREAT BASIN. DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ONLY
   IMPROVE WITH TIME...AS MAIN UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY ALONG THE AZ/NM
   BORDER. FAVORABLY ORIENTED UPPER JET WILL ENHANCE LARGE SCALE
   DIVERGENCE...WHILE AT LOW LEVELS STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN
   RESPONSE TO DEEPENING CYCLONE.
   
   WARM AIR IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS/PLAINS WILL FAVOR RAIN RATHER THAN
   SNOW INITIALLY WITH THE SYSTEM. LATEST SFC OBS ACROSS SE WY SHOW
   RAIN HAS RECENTLY CHANGED TO SNOW ACROSS LAR AND CYS...AS WET BULB
   ZERO TEMPS FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
   INCREASES. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM AIRMASS IS RELATIVELY WARM WITH
   TEMPS/DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S IN THE FOOTHILLS. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
   FROM 00Z DENVER SOUNDING SUGGESTS THE FREEZING LEVEL IS BETWEEN
   8000-9000 FEET...WITH A SATURATED PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR DENVER FROM THE 18Z ETA ARE ABOUT 6 DEGREES
   TOO WARM AS COMPARED WITH THE OBSERVED SOUNDING...BUT THE RUC
   FORECAST SOUNDING FROM 21Z IS MORE REPRESENTATIVE. WITH PERSISTENT
   LARGE SCALE LIFT AND ADIABATIC COOLING...RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW
   IN THE DENVER/BOULDER AREAS BETWEEN 04-06Z. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
   LIKELY AFTER 06Z IN THE FOOTHILLS.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 10/10/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...GJT...
   
   41770411 41760618 39170653 37370711 37200625 40020404

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2331
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0836 PM CDT SUN OCT 09 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 833...
   
   VALID 100136Z - 100300Z
   
   SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM 25 W ABI TO 30 S SJT TO 50 NW DRT WITH ONE
   BOWING SEGMENT POSSIBLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS RUNNELS
   COUNTY...BUT A STRONGER BOWING SEGMENT MOVING TOWARD SUTTON COUNTY.
   
   PRONOUNCED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
   TONIGHT AND SHOULD SUSTAIN SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS
   WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST STRONGER
   INSTABILITY CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAY FUEL INCREASINGLY
   STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AS LOW LEVEL JET AND ISENTROPIC
   LIFT INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS...VIGOROUS ACTIVITY MAY
   DEVELOP EWD INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY FROM NRN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT HOUR
   OR SO...AND THEN CONTINUE EAST WITH SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL
   THREAT CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW 833.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 10/10/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...
   
   29240235 32150048 32189787 29239964

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2332
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1107 PM CDT SUN OCT 09 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 833...
   
   VALID 100407Z - 100530Z
   
   STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF SCNTRL TX AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVER NEXT FEW HOURS.
    STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE
   WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON
   STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.
   
   STORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING ALONG SQUALL LINE ADVANCING EAST AHEAD OF
   STRONG UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE STRONG FORCING WITH THIS UPPER
   IMPULSE...INSTABILITY ACROSS THE VALID PORTIONS OF WW 833 REMAINS
   LIMITED. A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS HAVE BEEN TRACKING EAST
   ACROSS NRN MEXICO TO THE WEST OF KINNEY AND MAVERICK COUNTIES. SOME
   OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE IN ANOTHER HOUR OR
   SO. STRONG LIFT AND RAPID MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THIS PART OF THE
   RIO GRANDE VALLEY COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLD SEVERE STORM OR TWO INTO
   EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR IMMINENT AT
   THIS TIME.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 10/10/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...
   
   28800089 29140152 32199882 30669843 29269829 27759954
   28470038

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2333
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0755 AM CDT MON OCT 10 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MID/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 101255Z - 101400Z
   
   SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP OVER IMMEDIATE TX COASTAL AREA BETWEEN
   PSX AND CHAMBERS COUNTY THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z.  MARGINAL THREAT
   EXISTS FOR DAMAGING GUSTS OR A TORNADO.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BUT
   WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
   
   12Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT FROM OFFSHORE SABINE PASS WWD
   TO NEAR GLS...THEN WSWWD ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES TO JUST N
   PSX...WHERE IT INTERSECTS BAND OF TSTMS THAT EXTENDS SWD OVER GULF
   COASTAL WATERS.  SMALL SUPERCELLS/BOWS MAY FORM IN TSTM LINE OR TO
   ITS E...ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT.  ACTIVITY INTERACTING WITH FRONT
   HAS RELATIVELY LARGEST PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE...IN NARROW
   BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE NEAR SFC-BASED INSTABILITY COINCIDES WITH
   MAXIMIZED SHEAR/LIFT/VORTICITY.  REPRESENTATIVE 12Z RAOB DATA IS
   NONEXISTENT...HOWEVER 1030Z ACARS SOUNDING LIFTING SSWWD FROM IAH
   SHOWED PRONOUNCED STABLE LAYER AROUND 700 MB.  THIS INVERSION
   OBVIOUSLY IS WEAKER SLIGHTLY FARTHER W WHERE TSTMS ARE MORE COMMON.
   ACARS SOUNDING...AS WELL AS MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AND VWP
   DATA...INDICATE STRONGLY VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT
   AND ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  0-1 KM SRH
   200-350 J/KG ARE EVIDENT ALONG FRONT.  ESTIMATED MUCAPES RANGE FROM
   500-1500 J/KG...HIGHEST OVER GULF AND DECREASING WITH NWD/INLAND
   EXTENT.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 10/10/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...
   
   29319631 29629546 29669476 29549438 29309430 28949509
   28629578 28439617

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2334
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0235 PM CDT MON OCT 10 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX S PLAINS...WRN N TX
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 101935Z - 102130Z
   
   TSTMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX S
   PLAINS...WRN N TX AND PERHAPS EXTREME SWRN OK THROUGH LATE AFTN.  A
   WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   MESOANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM THE ERN TX PNHDL TO BETWEEN
   KPVW-KLBB THEN SWWD TO SERN NM.  A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXISTS FROM
   THE FRONT THROUGH KLBB TO SRN LEA COUNTY NM.  MORNING LOW CLOUDS
   HAVE MIXED OUT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   TO WARM.  SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 50S AS FAR W AS THE
   CAP ROCK...AND NEAR 60F READINGS WERE ADVECTING NWD THROUGH NW TX.
   RUC SOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT
   SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH COOLEST H5 TEMPERATURES AOB MINUS
   14C ACROSS THE TX PNHDL TO AOA MINUS 10C ACROSS NW TX. THIS HAS
   RESULTED IN A NARROW WEDGE OF LOW CINH...WEAK SURFACE BASED CAPE
   JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT/TROUGH ACROSS THE TX S PLAINS AND WRN N
   TX...WITH STRONGER CINH FARTHER S.
   
   A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN SATL IMAGERY...
   EJECTING NEWD FROM SWRN TX.  UVV IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE
   WILL SPREAD ATOP THE DESTABILIZING AIR MASS AND SUPPORT STRONGER
   LOW-TOPPED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE AFTN IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY
   A KLBB-KCDS-KSNK-KLBB LINE.  A FEW OF THE TSTMS COULD PRODUCE
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  AS THE TSTMS ROTATE NNEWD INTO THE ERN TX
   PNHDL AND WRN OK...THE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY BECOME
   REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER INSTABILITY FEED.
   
   ..RACY.. 10/10/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   33110016 32650113 32600189 33160233 33700231 34330149
   35060071 35660037 35530007 34589996 34149986 33479995

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2335
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0616 PM CDT MON OCT 10 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CO
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 102316Z - 110415Z
   
   ...MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES ACROSS THE CO FRONT RANGE AND
   ROCKIES...
   
   SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW LIKELY ACROSS THE FRONT
   RANGE/PALMER DIVIDE AS LARGE WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE
   REGION. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE
   POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT OR ABOVE 6000 FEET. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
   OF THE SNOW COULD RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD
   SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT.
   
   A LARGE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WAS UNDERGOING OCCLUSION ACROSS NERN NM
   THIS EVENING. AT LEAST ONE MORE LOBE OF DPVA WILL PINWHEEL AROUND
   THE LOW AND COMBINE WITH STRONG OROGRAPHIC FORCING TO MAINTAIN HEAVY
   WET SNOW WITHIN THE COLD SATURATED AIR MASS ACROSS ERN CO.
   RELATIVELY STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO MID LEVEL LAYER OF STRONG
   ASCENT...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL COOLING...WILL AID SNOW
   PRODUCTION BY AGGREGATION. LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING RUC...NAM...AND
   EARLIER SREF RUNS ARE ALL IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT NEARLY
   STEADY STATE CONDITIONS IDEAL FOR HEAVY FRONT RANGE AND PALMER
   DIVIDE SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. WIDESPREAD
   HEAVY SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS CYCLONE
   GRADUALLY FILLS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMICS WANE. HOWEVER...
   OROGRAPHIC FORCING MAY BE SLOWER TO WEAKEN AND KEEP LOCALLY HEAVY
   SNOW CONTINUING IN SOME AREAS BEYOND MIDNIGHT.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 10/10/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...
   
   40690568 40310590 39710615 38920611 38510596 37580539
   37570501 38600471 38920365 39320354 39840411 40030441
   40690482

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2336
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0930 AM CDT TUE OCT 11 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S TX
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...ISOLD SEVERE
   
   VALID 111430Z - 111630Z
   
   TSTMS DEVELOPING/MOVING ACROSS S TX WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
   AND ISOLD WET MICROBURSTS THROUGH THE AFTN.  NO WW IS ANTICIPATED.
   
   SMALL LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SEWD INTO S TX THIS MORNING.
    TSTMS SEEM TO HAVE DEVELOPED EARLIER ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF WEAK
   LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER CNTRL PLAINS
   CYCLONE.  THE TSTMS APPEAR TO BE SURVIVING ON MODEST SELY LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG AND HIGH PWATS. 
   
   THE LINE OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MOVING SEWD INTO DEEP S
   TX...WITH STRONGER STORMS FAVORING THE RIO GRANDE VLY WHERE STRONGER
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST.  OTHER TSTMS ARE APT TO BACKBUILD SWWD
   FROM THE FALFURRIAS AREA ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY TIED TO COLLAPSING TSTMS OFF THE TAMAULIPAS COAST. THESE
   MAY MERGE WITH THE LINEAR MCS LATER THIS AFTN... BOOSTING HEAVY RNFL
   POTENTIAL. 
   
   GIVEN A DEEP WARM LAYER /AOA 20KFT/ AND MAGNITUDE OF THE MOIST
   PROFILE /PWATS AOA 1.75 INCHES/...MAIN THREAT WILL BE VERY HEAVY
   RNFL THAT COULD EXCEED 2 INCHES PER HOUR.  OTHERWISE...ISOLD WET
   MICROBURSTS MAY OCCUR. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
   ISOLD/LOW TO PRECLUDE A CONVECTIVE WW.
   
   ..RACY.. 10/11/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...
   
   27399993 27969933 28569908 27849728 27129805 26619840
   26119844 26259937

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2337
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0225 AM CDT THU OCT 13 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW TX...SMALL PART OF EXTREME
   S-CENTRAL/SERN NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 130725Z - 131030Z
   
   TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z
   ACROSS AREA FROM NEAR ELP SEWD INTO BIG BEND AND EWD INVOF TX/NM
   BORDER TO MAF REGION.  SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE PRIMARILY IN FORM
   OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...FROM NEAR ELP SEWD TOWARD BIG BEND AREA
   WHERE INSTABILITY IS LARGEST.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.  HEAVY RAIN
   MAY BE MAIN THREAT WITH RATES 1-2 INCHES/HOUR LIKELY IN SOME
   LOCALES.
   
   CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION OF REGION OVERNIGHT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
   MOIST/WARM ADVECTION ABOVE SFC AND INTO THIS REGION...AS WELL AS
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT E OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
   CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SERN AZ/NERN SONORA.  ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS
   EVIDENT SOMEWHERE OVER E-CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA SW OF PRESIDIO.  PARCELS
   SHOULD RISE TO LFC BENEATH ELEVATED MUCAPES OF ABOUT 1000 J/KG NEAR
   RIO GRANDE...BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS.  LIFT ALSO WILL BE
   AIDED LOCALLY BY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NERN CHIHUAHUA AND FAR SW
   TX...AND CONVERGENCE WITHIN AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS LOCATED NE OF SFC
   LOW.  ALTHOUGH ELEVATED BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME
   ACROSS NRN PARTS OF DISCUSSION AREA...IT ALSO WILL DECREASE WITH NWD
   EXTENT...RESULTING IN REDUCTION OF SEVERE THREAT WITH LATITUDE.  PW
   IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1 INCH WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS...AS MOIST
   ADVECTION CONTINUES FROM DRT AREA WHERE ROUGHLY 1.25-1.5 INCH VALUES
   HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN GPS DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS.  SLOW STORM
   MOTIONS AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY ALSO AUGMENT RAINFALL
   HAZARD.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 10/13/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
   
   31770708 32010671 32500550 32590373 32570275 32360164
   31760140 30790159 29850222 29860232 29780234 29740267
   29330284 29200282 29170297 28990308 29010331 29140354
   29350411 29400426 29550443 29720458 29790458 29880466
   30240468 30360480 30600490 30600497 30690501 30710508
   30820525 30860536 31020557 31130565 31260588 31410598
   31430618 31730637 31770653

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2338
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0504 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 162204Z - 170100Z
   
   HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SVR HAIL AND/OR WIND IS EXPECTED
   THROUGH EVENING.
   
   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING INTO THE LOWER CO RIVER
   VALLEY AND SRN CA.  NEARBY GPS WATER VAPOR MEASUREMENTS INDICATE
   ANYWHERE FROM 1.00-1.25 INCHES BUT MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD
   ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH AROUND 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE.
   
   LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING
   HOURS...WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR REGENERATION OF STORMS MAINLY E
   OF THE COASTAL RANGE. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WIND PROFILES
   SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS SUGGEST HAIL IS POSSIBLE...AND TO A LESSER
   EXTENT STRONG WINDS. INCREASING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT UPSLOPE
   SUGGEST LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING MAINLY E SLOPES.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 10/16/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...
   
   32641633 33371646 33781675 34041681 34131659 33971620
   33601553 33271501 32691459 32591605

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2339
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0136 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO NWRN AZ AND SRN NV
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 180636Z - 180800Z
   
   IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL...LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH HOURLY RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
   WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE SRN
   CA/BAJA COAST HAS STARTED TO MOVE ENEWD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH
   APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SYSTEM NEAR 135W/32N.  DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW
   PATTERN DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE HAS MAINTAINED A FAIRLY
   WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM SRN NV SEWD INTO CNTRL AZ.
   
   AS OF 0615Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE MOST INTENSE
   CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS /SOME OF WHICH HAVE EXHIBITED BRIEF SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES/ WERE LOCATED AT THE SRN EDGE OF THIS LARGER
   PRECIPITATION AREA...NAMELY OVER MARICOPA...YAVAPAI AND LA PAZ
   COUNTIES IN W-CNTRL AZ.  RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
   LARGELY SATURATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IS LIMITING INSTABILITY
   WITH MUCAPES OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG.  HOWEVER...RELATIVELY STRONG
   VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR AND RESULTANT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 40-50
   KTS ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO DEVELOPMENT OF THESE MORE ORGANIZED
   STORMS...SUGGESTING SOME THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
   
   LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN FROM NWRN AZ
   INTO FAR SRN NV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  HERE... DEEP-LAYER
   FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM...SLOW SYSTEM MOVEMENT...OROGRAPHIC
   ASCENT ALONG MOGOLLON RIM...AND INFLUX OF MOIST AIR MASS /PW VALUES
   AOA 1.50 INCHES/ WILL ALL AID IN MAINTENENCE OF PRECIPITATION
   SHIELD...WITH LOCAL RAINFALL RATES APPROACHING 1 TO 2 INCHES/HOUR.
   
   ..MEAD.. 10/18/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...
   
   33531299 34011426 35531513 36371561 36991497 37061368
   36891244 35621152 34051192 33591237

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2340
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0208 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...AZ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 181908Z - 182115Z
   
   CONVECTIVE INTENSITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALONG
   WITH A LIMITED THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL/LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WITH A
   FEW STRONGER STORMS.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   DAYTIME HEATING HAS COMBINED WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
   AZ TO YIELD MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION /AROUND 500 J/KG
   MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ THIS AFTERNOON.  UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA HAS BEGUN
   MOVING ENEWD...WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-20C AT
   H5/ FORECAST TO CONTINUE SPREADING INTO AZ.  AS LOW CONTINUES MOVING
   EWD AND ADDITIONAL/MODEST DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...EXPECT
   COMBINATION OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /IN
   EXCESS OF 50 KT/ TO SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING/LOW-TOPPED STORMS.  WITH
   COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT BUT ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...MAIN
   THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY
   GUSTY WINDS.  WITH OVERALL INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THREAT FORECAST
   TO REMAIN LIMITED...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   ..GOSS.. 10/18/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
   
   33871342 35411184 35441023 34470921 32880893 32271013
   324912841237

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2342
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS / OK PANHANDLE / FAR NRN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 191800Z - 191930Z



ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ALTHOUGH ERN PORTIONS OF THE MD AREA ARE INCLUDED IN A WW...NEED FOR
AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM QUICKLY UNDER SUNNY SKIES...WHILE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO COOL WITH STRONG UPPER VORT
APPROACHING. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SEWD
MOVING COLD FRONT AND ITS INTERSECTION WITH E-W ORIENTED SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM WHILE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. GIVEN STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT...THREAT EXISTS PRIMARILY FOR DAMAGING
WINDS WRN AREAS WITH LINEAR STORM MODE BUT SOME HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ERN AREAS WHERE INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE POSSIBLE.

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2343
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0252 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF WRN N TX/WRN OK/SRN
   KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 834...
   
   VALID 191952Z - 192115Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREA.
   
   MAIN SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK
   AND ADJACENT SRN KS/NWRN TX...JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH NOW
   INDICATED OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE.  MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
   REMAINS JUST AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH INITIAL/BROKEN LINE OF
   STORMS WEAKENING AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS APPROACH MORE STABLE/CAPPED
   AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL OK. 
   
   ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT NEW LINE OF CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING FROM
   BEAVER CO OK SWD TOWARD HALL CO TX WILL CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE...LIKELY BECOMING A NEW/BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE/SUPERCELL
   STORMS.  THESE STORMS -- AS WELL AS A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS
   REMAINING WITHIN INITIAL LINE -- WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
   HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 10/19/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
   
   37060049 37619992 37519796 33739910 33510079 35150097
   36500088

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2344
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0327 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS/NRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 192027Z - 192200Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT INCREASING ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK ALONG SURFACE FRONT.
   NEW WW POSSIBLE.
   
   SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM SURFACE LOW OVER THE OK PANHANDLE
   HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN OK SRN KS.
   AIRMASS  CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WITH
   AXIS OF 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE NOW INDICATED ACROSS NRN OK.
   
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE/ROTATING STORMS ACROSS
   THIS REGION...WITH STORM OVER SRN ALFALFA COUNTY NOW APPROACHING THE
   ERN FRINGE OF WW 834.  THOUGH BOUNDARY LIKELY REMAINS CAPPED FURTHER
   E ALONG THIS FRONT...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL LIFT NEAR/N OF BOUNDARY
   SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THREAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   THOUGH MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
   HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY
   ALONG FRONTAL ZONE.
   
   ..GOSS.. 10/19/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
   
   37939837 38829505 37569428 36689649 36539805

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2345
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0458 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN / SCNTRL KS AND NWRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 192158Z - 200000Z
   
   ISOLATED SUPERCELL TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS.
   
   WIND PROFILES HAVE BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE
   REGION. FURTHER...LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND
   NEAR THE E-W ORIENTED STATIONARY BOUNDARY HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES WHERE 0-1 SRH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY EXCEEDING 200 M2/S2 AS
   SEEN ON VCI PROFILER AND AREA VWPS.
   
   GIVEN STRONG FORCING NOW ENTERING FROM THE WEST...FAVORABLE SHEAR
   PROFILES...PRESENCE OF LOW LCLS AND MODERATE
   INSTABILITY...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES
   POSSIBLE. NWD EXTENT OF TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEVERELY
   LIMITED BY VERY COOL AIR ON N SIDE OF STATIONARY BOUNDARY...WITH
   MAIN THREAT GENERALLY BOUNDED BY A DDC-P28-END-GAG POLYGON.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 10/19/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
   
   37329794 36509785 36029837 36070008 36680016 37700025
   37379844

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2346
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL AND SRN MO THROUGH NRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 201634Z - 201830Z



THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FROM SCNTRL AND SRN MO INTO NRN
AR. SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY ALONG WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. WW MAY BE NEEDED BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LATE THIS MORNING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER ERN KS
WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW WAS OVER W CNTRL MO WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
THROUGH SWRN MO INTO WRN AR. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED EWD FROM
THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL MO...SRN IL AND WRN KY. SURFACE HEATING...LOW
LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 60...AND MID LEVEL COOLING/ASCENT ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WARM SECTOR MLCAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 1000 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. ELEVATED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS NRN AR
AND SERN MO. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SRN MO AND NRN AR
AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED THE MID LEVEL JET ADVANCES EWD OVER
THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...STORMS
SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME SURFACE BASED. UNIDIRECTIONAL 40-50 KT DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS. A SMALL WINDOW MAY EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
NEAR THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE STRONGER LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR EXISTS. HOWEVER...THE SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY SUGGESTS STORMS SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED AS THEY CROSS THE
BOUNDARY.

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2347
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0342 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH SRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 202042Z - 202245Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN
   INTENSITY OVER SRN MO AND SPREAD EWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
   EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN CNTRL MO SWWD THROUGH SRN
   MO AND NWRN AR. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH
   E CNTRL MO AND SRN IL. ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   MOVING EWD THROUGH MO PROMOTED THE EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS
   WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...AND THIS HAS LIMITED THE DEGREE OF
   INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS
   MIXING OUT WITH DEEPENING CUMULUS IN S CNTRL MO ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
   OF THE COLD FRONT. THE INCREASING SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
   A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AROUND
   1000 J/KG OVER SRN MO. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE WITHIN ZONE OF FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND JUST
   AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SRN MO. UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50 KT WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR
   SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST
   SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BUOYANCY.
   
   ..DIAL.. 10/20/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...
   
   38239110 37839066 37219072 36599135 36339225 36509292
   37439237 38229202

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2347
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH SRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 202042Z - 202245Z



THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN
INTENSITY OVER SRN MO AND SPREAD EWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN CNTRL MO SWWD THROUGH SRN
MO AND NWRN AR. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH
E CNTRL MO AND SRN IL. ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EWD THROUGH MO PROMOTED THE EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...AND THIS HAS LIMITED THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRATUS
MIXING OUT WITH DEEPENING CUMULUS IN S CNTRL MO ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. THE INCREASING SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AROUND
1000 J/KG OVER SRN MO. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE WITHIN ZONE OF FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SRN MO. UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50 KT WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BUOYANCY.