Vince,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Website · #181 Postby **Brent** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 9:58 pm

Team Ragnarok wrote:Looks like shear may beginning to take its toll:

That would be cold water. :wink:

#182 Postby **abajan** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 10:15 pm

ncdowneast wrote:40'N and 8'W is a new plot for the NHC thats awfully strange to see a TS forecast to hit portugal!I guess nobody is safe this year!What a wild crazy year this has been and it just doesn't want to end!!!!

Perhaps it's a portuguese thing. Think for a moment: What does Portugal and Brazil have in common? What hitherto unheard of weather occurence took place in Brazil last year? :eek:

aerojad · #183 Postby **aerojad** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 10:18 pm

I just made a couple maps with Google Earth for this advisory.

Here is the map of the storm heading toward southern Portugal.

This caught my eye more though. One of the models is taking this baby straight across the Med. Sea generally toward Israel. And check out those water temps :eek:

One-in-four shot, yeah... but still.

Weatherfreak14 · #184 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 10:35 pm

Yeah, I think it will head toward that area. I have google earth too, Man its a life saver if the NHC maps are somewhat not filled in.

Coredesat · #185 Postby **Coredesat** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 10:39 pm

Brent wrote:
Team Ragnarok wrote:Looks like shear may beginning to take its toll:

That would be cold water.

The discussion mentioned increasing westerly shear, so we're both right. :lol:

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #186 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 10:40 pm

The latest satellite out of NRL shows the eye becoming better defined. In the eyewall is now closed.

Doc Seminole · #187 Postby **Doc Seminole** » Sun Oct 09, 2005 10:46 pm

Scorpion wrote:Wow, looks beautiful. Imagine if it went into the Mediterranean and went all the way to Israel. That would be something else. Wishful thinking of course.

FOUL....FOUL....FOUL!!!

#188 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 1:38 am

10/0600 UTC 34.0N 17.2W T4.0/4.0 VINCE -- Atlantic Ocean

#189 Postby **TheEuropean** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 1:54 am

the lastest image by university of dundee:

<IMG SRC="http://www.saevert.de/bilder/storm2k/051010vince8.jpg">

I think it's getting a little weeker without an eye now.What will be left when or if it will make landfall in Portugal?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #190 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 2:20 am

10/0600 UTC 34.0N 17.2W T4.5/4.5 VINCE

75 knots

#191 Postby **TheEuropean** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 2:24 am

wow, but sat image is looking a little weeker at 06:00 UTC

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #192 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 2:25 am

Maybe the deeper convection developing is hinding the eye?

TPNT KGWC 100630
A. HURRICANE VINCE (TWENTY-THREE)
B. 10/0531Z (104)
C. 34.1N/8
D. 17.2W/0
E. ONE/MET7
F. T4.0/4.0/STT: D1.5/15HRS -10/0531Z-
G. IR/EIR

05A/ PBO 10NM RGD EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE IS SURROUNDED BY
A 20NM WIDE DG RING. GIVING AN EYE NBR OF 4.5. DT IS
BASED ON PT. PT GIVES IT A 4.0

AODT: T3.4 (CRVD BND)

HEATH/ALEXANDER

#193 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 3:20 am

I've got a strange question here: Given they release the advisories in the apropriate time zone should these ones not be released in BST (Portugal appears to be in the British Summer Time zone at the moment, although I'm not sure what they call it, going by this http://www.worldtimezone.com/time-europe.htm

#194 Postby **HenkL** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 3:52 am

Vince is downgraded to Tropical Storm.

#195 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:29 am

45kts in the 12pm GMT guidance, looks to have become rather exposed over the morning and early afternoon.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #196 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 11:08 am

A new blow up of convection right over LLC.
http://www.eumetsat.int/idcplg?IdcServi ... d=444&l=en

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #197 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 1:33 pm

A blow up of convection holds. The system is holding its own...In also moving almost due eastward. I think it will make the channel then the Med.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #198 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 2:10 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:A blow up of convection holds. The system is holding its own...In also moving almost due eastward. I think it will make the channel then the Med.

Doesn't look like that will be the case, Matt. The chances of it passing through the Straits of Gibraltar and then into the Mediterranean is extremely low. With the cold front just to Vince's north, and a low already forming along that front, that will absorb Vince and pull it northward. Furthermore, high pressure in the Mediterranean will keep Vince and the cold front from passing through Europe. Looks like the remnants of Vince will actually help fire up that cold front, turning it into a mature occluded front, as it passes through the UK and to the north of Norway.

#199 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 2:52 pm

Did you not say the same about the chances of it becoming a hurricane though? :lol:

I can't see it doing that either though.

10/1800 UTC 35.2N 13.0W T2.5/3.0 VINCE -- Atlantic Ocean

ChaserUK · #200 Postby **ChaserUK** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 3:06 pm

have to admit that I think this is probably the last we will see of Vince. Would have enjoyed watching for longer but hey, it was nearly 24 hours!

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