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#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:29 am

The weak low near Vieques at the moment I am talking about at the thread about Caribbean.

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:37 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL972005) ON 20051010 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051010 1200 051011 0000 051011 1200 051012 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.0N 65.5W 19.5N 64.3W 21.7N 63.7W 24.4N 63.1W
BAMM 18.0N 65.5W 19.9N 65.0W 22.0N 64.9W 24.5N 64.7W
A98E 18.0N 65.5W 18.7N 64.2W 20.0N 63.3W 21.2N 62.7W
LBAR 18.0N 65.5W 19.1N 64.8W 20.9N 64.7W 22.8N 64.8W
SHIP 20KTS 27KTS 35KTS 44KTS
DSHP 20KTS 27KTS 35KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051012 1200 051013 1200 051014 1200 051015 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.5N 62.4W 32.8N 60.7W 35.7N 57.3W 35.4N 48.2W
BAMM 27.0N 64.5W 30.6N 64.3W 32.4N 65.1W 33.9N 64.4W
A98E 22.8N 62.3W 26.6N 61.7W 31.4N 59.7W 33.9N 53.4W
LBAR 24.7N 65.2W 27.6N 65.7W 30.1N 65.6W 32.6N 62.5W
SHIP 52KTS 63KTS 65KTS 56KTS
DSHP 52KTS 63KTS 65KTS 56KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.0N LONCUR = 65.5W DIRCUR = 70DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 17.4N LONM12 = 67.2W DIRM12 = 72DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 16.8N LONM24 = 68.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

caribepr · #3 Postby **caribepr** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:50 am

Good lord

Wondered where (not when) it would happen. What's next? (Luis, think I'll be able to get out of here on Thursday, Air Flamenco :?:

)

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 9:00 am

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... tjua.shtml

Radar loop where all can see the low as it moves thru the islands.Now as I type it is between Vieques and Culebra.

cinlfla · #5 Postby **cinlfla** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 9:05 am

Luis do you have a visual for those plots?

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 9:07 am

Graphic of the first model plots.

skufful · #7 Postby **skufful** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 9:10 am

cycloneye wrote:

Graphic of the first model plots.

Am I missing something, the graphic is no way close to the numerical plots you posted.

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 9:12 am

18.0n-65.5w is where the lines start so they are correct.

skufful · #9 Postby **skufful** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 9:15 am

On my screen, the lines start at about 10N, 35W.

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 9:16 am

skufful wrote:On my screen, the lines start at about 10N, 35W.

Refresh the graphic.

skufful · #11 Postby **skufful** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 9:19 am

cycloneye wrote:
skufful wrote:On my screen, the lines start at about 10N, 35W.

Refresh the graphic.

Thx, little curious why I had to do that, thought it would do it itself when I went back to talkin tropics

#12 Postby **fci** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 9:36 am

Let's get Wilma when it is well north of the islands.

That way the next in line will be the historic "A L P H A"!!!
8-)

knotimpaired · #13 Postby **knotimpaired** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 9:50 am

Cyclone,

We are at 18.1 and 65.4.

Here is our weather station.

http://www.playacofi.com/weather

K

#14 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 10:30 am

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES... AND
NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES... AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW
NEAR PUERTO RICO WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD TO THE
BAHAMAS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING SOME BANDS
OF HEAVY RAIN CONCENTRATED MAINLY OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA... SOME GRADUAL
NON-TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS

11:30 AM TWO.

Steve H. · #15 Postby **Steve H.** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 11:09 am

Was just looking at that Luis. Seems to be getting shoved east for the time being, but I don't buy those tropical models yet, as the flow to the north of the islands seems to be east/SE to WNW north of the islands. Lots of small vortices spinning around in the SW Atlantic/Caribbean. Not sure what is going to dominate. Waiting for 12Z models. NAM shows a low getting swung around from north of the islands in a cyclonic loop toward the mid Atlantic coast, then SW toward the Carolinas. Lots of weird stuff out there. We need a clean sweep of the east coast o break this pattern. :roll:

nequad · #16 Postby **nequad** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 11:15 am

I've been following this the past few days in the models.

The current NAM is close to previous days runs from NOGAPS and UK of turning a developing low south of Bermuda WNW towards the Carolina coast.
The GFS has at times shown this scenario as well.

12Z GFS is in through 96 hours and is much slower, thus further offshore, than the NAM at 84 HRS.

However, model guidance is in agreement of a developing blocking high to the North by days 3-5. So, it seems possible that anything moving north toward Bermuda could be turned westward after 72 hours. Something to watch for sure.

#17 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 11:39 am

I haven't even had time to get on here this morning. We are having floods in the BVI! Several guts have burst their walls and flooding surrounding areas. One major gut in the capital, Road Town, has burst and the resulting flood caused fuel leaks from a gas station to mix with the water. Consequently, a huge area was put under mandatory evacuation, all residences and businesses, because they have no way to clean up the water, it is still pouring down the hills. A lot of people are without phone service (water in the lines). One of the businesses in the area flooded with gasoline is our country's food distributor, wholesaler and the biggest supermarket. All of their employees were told over the radio not to come to work this morning. We know one of their buildings has water in it, the others are a bit higher. Sure hope it doesn't get in the warehouses, or the country will have a food shortage. All the banks are closed, doctor's office, etc. It is bad, and as I type, it is pouring gusty, bandy-type rain.

#18 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 11:42 am

bvigal wrote:I haven't even had time to get on here this morning. We are having floods in the BVI! Several guts have burst their walls and flooding surrounding areas. One major gut in the capital, Road Town, has burst and the resulting flood caused fuel leaks from a gas station to mix with the water. Consequently, a huge area was put under mandatory evacuation, all residences and businesses, because they have no way to clean up the water, it is still pouring down the hills. A lot of people are without phone service (water in the lines). One of the businesses in the area flooded with gasoline is our country's food distributor, wholesaler and the biggest supermarket. All of their employees were told over the radio not to come to work this morning. We know one of their buildings has water in it, the others are a bit higher. Sure hope it doesn't get in the warehouses, or the country will have a food shortage. All the banks are closed, doctor's office, etc. It is bad, and as I type, it is pouring gusty, bandy-type rain.

Oh man be safe there please.It looks like a very serious situation unfolding there.Keep us informed my friend.

caribepr · #19 Postby **caribepr** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 12:01 pm

cycloneye wrote:
bvigal wrote:I haven't even had time to get on here this morning. We are having floods in the BVI! Several guts have burst their walls and flooding surrounding areas. One major gut in the capital, Road Town, has burst and the resulting flood caused fuel leaks from a gas station to mix with the water. Consequently, a huge area was put under mandatory evacuation, all residences and businesses, because they have no way to clean up the water, it is still pouring down the hills. A lot of people are without phone service (water in the lines). One of the businesses in the area flooded with gasoline is our country's food distributor, wholesaler and the biggest supermarket. All of their employees were told over the radio not to come to work this morning. We know one of their buildings has water in it, the others are a bit higher. Sure hope it doesn't get in the warehouses, or the country will have a food shortage. All the banks are closed, doctor's office, etc. It is bad, and as I type, it is pouring gusty, bandy-type rain.

Oh man be safe there please.It looks like a very serious situation unfolding there.Keep us informed my friend.

Ditto what Luis said!!! I'm so sorry to read this. Hoping this gets cleared up quickly but the gas leak is very bad

#20 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 12:36 pm

Luis, I think yall will get some VERY heavy rain and maybe some light wind. I just don't see this amounting to a very big system....looks just like a sheared mess right now

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