97L Invest

[bvigal]

moved to Hazardous Weather Caribbean,Post conditions in your area
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 07#1094307

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Gfdl shows it developing. Come on Wilma!!!
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[bvigal]

from 2pm TWD:
UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS JUST S OF
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO... PROVIDING A VERY DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT
WITH THE RIDGE AND A LARGE UPPER LOW N OF THE AREA. 1008 MB
SURFACE LOW HAS FORMED NEAR E PUERTO RICO DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
LIFT. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 61W-66W
BETWEEN 12N-18N... MOSTLY OUT OF PUERTO RICO FOR THE TIME
BEING. HEAVIEST TSTMS ARE ORIENTED FROM NNE TO SSW FROM 18N62W
TO 12N64.5W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS COVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N
OF GUADELOUPE. HEAVY RAIN... FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIFE-THREATENING MUDSLIDES EXISTS IN THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN. TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF FLOODING

[cycloneye]

CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 97L

INITIAL TIME 12Z OCT 10

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.1 65.8 70./ 8.0
6 18.9 65.6 18./ 8.0
12 19.7 65.7 354./ 8.2
18 20.9 65.5 9./11.4
24 21.8 65.4 4./ 9.3
30 22.9 65.2 14./11.9
36 24.5 64.9 10./15.3
42 25.6 64.7 8./11.4
48 26.5 64.3 27./10.2
54 27.8 63.6 25./14.3
60 29.0 63.2 21./11.8
66 29.9 63.1 9./ 9.3
72 30.8 63.2 350./ 9.4
78 31.3 64.0 306./ 8.2
84 31.5 64.8 284./ 7.7
90 31.6 65.7 275./ 7.7
96 31.6 66.2 270./ 3.6
102 31.8 66.2 336./ 2.4
108 32.4 66.5 337./ 5.8
114 32.6 67.0 292./ 4.7
120 32.7 66.8 61./ 2.3
126 33.2 66.2 47./ 6.7


12z GFDL.

[bvigal]

Goodness, it's almost 19z, when will some new models come out?

[AJC3]

CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 97L

INITIAL TIME 12Z OCT 10

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.1 65.8 70./ 8.0
6 18.9 65.6 18./ 8.0
12 19.7 65.7 354./ 8.2
18 20.9 65.5 9./11.4
24 21.8 65.4 4./ 9.3
30 22.9 65.2 14./11.9
36 24.5 64.9 10./15.3
42 25.6 64.7 8./11.4
48 26.5 64.3 27./10.2
54 27.8 63.6 25./14.3
60 29.0 63.2 21./11.8
66 29.9 63.1 9./ 9.3
72 30.8 63.2 350./ 9.4
78 31.3 64.0 306./ 8.2
84 31.5 64.8 284./ 7.7
90 31.6 65.7 275./ 7.7
96 31.6 66.2 270./ 3.6
102 31.8 66.2 336./ 2.4
108 32.4 66.5 337./ 5.8
114 32.6 67.0 292./ 4.7
120 32.7 66.8 61./ 2.3
126 33.2 66.2 47./ 6.7


12z GFDL.

Not that the this run of the GFDL will ever verify, however, Hamilton, BM is at 32.4° N 64.7° W, so after H72, the center is passing close enough to the S-W of the island, and at a slow enough speed to give it an extended period of some pretty foul wx.

[Fego]

[caribepr]

CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 97L

INITIAL TIME 12Z OCT 10

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.1 65.8 70./ 8.0
6 18.9 65.6 18./ 8.0
12 19.7 65.7 354./ 8.2
18 20.9 65.5 9./11.4
24 21.8 65.4 4./ 9.3
30 22.9 65.2 14./11.9
36 24.5 64.9 10./15.3
42 25.6 64.7 8./11.4
48 26.5 64.3 27./10.2
54 27.8 63.6 25./14.3
60 29.0 63.2 21./11.8
66 29.9 63.1 9./ 9.3
72 30.8 63.2 350./ 9.4
78 31.3 64.0 306./ 8.2
84 31.5 64.8 284./ 7.7
90 31.6 65.7 275./ 7.7
96 31.6 66.2 270./ 3.6
102 31.8 66.2 336./ 2.4
108 32.4 66.5 337./ 5.8
114 32.6 67.0 292./ 4.7
120 32.7 66.8 61./ 2.3
126 33.2 66.2 47./ 6.7


12z GFDL.

Hearing the faint whisper of chants from all of us here in the Caribbean, counting the hours, watching the lines...go...go...go

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL972005) ON 20051010 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051010 1800 051011 0600 051011 1800 051012 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.8N 65.7W 20.4N 65.3W 22.5N 65.1W 24.9N 64.8W
BAMM 18.8N 65.7W 20.7N 65.4W 23.2N 65.3W 25.6N 65.2W
A98E 18.8N 65.7W 19.9N 64.9W 21.3N 64.3W 22.9N 63.9W
LBAR 18.8N 65.7W 20.1N 65.2W 21.8N 65.1W 23.9N 65.2W
SHIP 20KTS 27KTS 35KTS 43KTS
DSHP 20KTS 27KTS 35KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051012 1800 051013 1800 051014 1800 051015 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.5N 64.4W 31.7N 64.0W 35.1N 64.3W 39.4N 62.1W
BAMM 27.8N 64.7W 30.8N 64.4W 33.2N 64.9W 36.5N 63.3W
A98E 24.9N 63.6W 29.1N 62.8W 33.2N 62.3W 37.4N 58.5W
LBAR 25.6N 65.2W 27.9N 64.5W 30.7N 63.3W 34.0N 58.9W
SHIP 51KTS 59KTS 62KTS 55KTS
DSHP 51KTS 59KTS 62KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.8N LONCUR = 65.7W DIRCUR = 45DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 17.6N LONM12 = 66.5W DIRM12 = 67DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 16.2N LONM24 = 68.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


For those that always are interested in looking at these BAM models here is the 18:00z run for 97L.

[caribepr]

Luis, this is really fascinating to me. As the invest was named while it was between our two islands, and nothing was going on at the time (after a morning long steady but not strong rain), now I'm really confused as to what makes an invest! I mean, I understand numbers and things but there was NOTHING (of radical importance, like the other morning with our microburst) happening here. So what does that mean in relationship to how it became an invest at that moment? I know I'm really ignorant of much weather related so, help, por favor!

Laughing...the rain just started hard for three seconds as I went to hit submit. I better be careful here!

Hey, I'll take an answer from anyone, doesn't have to be cycloneye...I'd really like to know. Or someone direct me to a site for more understanding (which I could google, I'm just cheating tonight because...it's been a long day).

adding...email from a friend here who had the same sort of question where I confessed not having a clue (because laughing is good and so is simplicity):

"Thank you for being confused. I just hope they're not trying to cover their asses with a lot of mumbo jumbo. I think they should just call it the big yellow blob and explain to us why it's growing."

[fasterdisaster]

bump

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Long Term: Development Likely
Short Term: Development Unlikely
Unless the current shear lets up, I don't expect much development

But the shear is forecasted to let up...so development will be
likely once that happens over the next 1-2 days

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If this can become Wilma then the next storm will be Alpha!!! Wahooo!!!

[fasterdisaster]

Are there model plots? Can someone post them?

[caribepr]

I guess there is not an answer to my question...which I will now chalk up in the very long list of mysteries of life, part CXLI

[MiamiensisWx]

Are there model plots? Can someone post them?

Here they are...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I guess there is not an answer to my question...which I will now chalk up in the very long list of mysteries of life, part CXLI

What probably happened is that a low pressure area developed and
wrapped around some convection in order to become an invest-
the wrapping of the convection focused the intense storm activity
about the "Center" of 97L. In order to achieve this focusing of
activity, the convection over your area had to be taken away and
drawn into this "center".

[krysof]

isn't this supposed to merge with the remnants of subtropical depression 22

[nequad]

Luis, this is really fascinating to me. As the invest was named while it was between our two islands, and nothing was going on at the time (after a morning long steady but not strong rain), now I'm really confused as to what makes an invest! I mean, I understand numbers and things but there was NOTHING (of radical importance, like the other morning with our microburst) happening here. So what does that mean in relationship to how it became an invest at that moment? I know I'm really ignorant of much weather related so, help, por favor!

As far as I can tell this sytem was named an invest because the global models have been advertising some sort of subtropical/tropical development near PR
for several days. There is some sort of weak surface low north of PR now...thus the invest.

[fasterdisaster]

Any chance the center will reform in the Central Caribbean?