97L Invest

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #41 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 7:02 pm

fasterdisaster wrote:Any chance the center will reform in the Central Caribbean?

What's scary is, once shear decreases, both areas may develop...

caribepr · #42 Postby **caribepr** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 7:05 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:
caribepr wrote:I guess there is not an answer to my question...which I will now chalk up in the very long list of mysteries of life, part CXLI

What probably happened is that a low pressure area developed and
wrapped around some convection in order to become an invest-
the wrapping of the convection focused the intense storm activity
about the "Center" of 97L. In order to achieve this focusing of
activity, the convection over your area had to be taken away and
drawn into this "center".

I'll be reading that a few times and parsing it by google...but it sounds reasonable...sort of. The center CAN hold...(sorry Yeats!)
Thanks very much for a possible answer 8-)

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #43 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 7:10 pm

caribepr wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:
caribepr wrote:I guess there is not an answer to my question...which I will now chalk up in the very long list of mysteries of life, part CXLI

What probably happened is that a low pressure area developed and
wrapped around some convection in order to become an invest-
the wrapping of the convection focused the intense storm activity
about the "Center" of 97L. In order to achieve this focusing of
activity, the convection over your area had to be taken away and
drawn into this "center".

I'll be reading that a few times and parsing it by google...but it sounds reasonable...sort of. The center CAN hold...(sorry Yeats!)
Thanks very much for a possible answer

A perfect example is Tammy. I was getting 40-50 mph gusts while
it was an invest, but once it became Tropical Storm tammy, it
sucked in its bands and energy, and then the winds at my location
diminished significantly.

MiamiensisWx · #44 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 7:10 pm

It is definately a possibility that the center could reform further south.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #45 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 7:11 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:It is definately a possibility that the center could reform further south.

If that happens...and it reforms in the Carribean....uh oh...with all
that juicy moisture in place and shear expected to lessen...

MiamiensisWx · #46 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 7:15 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:If that happens...and it reforms in the Carribean....uh oh...with all
that juicy moisture in place and shear expected to lessen...

It is also possible that the center could remain mainly near or around it's current position and develop new convection around it, especially if shear decreases.

#47 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:02 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL972005) ON 20051011 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051011 0000 051011 1200 051012 0000 051012 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.9N 68.7W 20.1N 68.5W 21.9N 68.3W 24.0N 68.2W
BAMM 18.9N 68.7W 20.4N 68.7W 22.1N 68.7W 23.8N 68.8W
A98E 18.9N 68.7W 19.6N 69.1W 20.7N 68.8W 22.6N 67.6W
LBAR 18.9N 68.7W 20.3N 68.9W 22.1N 69.0W 23.9N 68.8W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 50KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051013 0000 051014 0000 051015 0000 051016 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.0N 67.8W 28.6N 66.8W 30.8N 64.6W 34.8N 60.2W
BAMM 25.0N 68.4W 26.6N 67.4W 28.5N 64.5W 32.0N 60.3W
A98E 24.5N 66.6W 27.8N 64.2W 31.1N 61.4W 33.9N 56.0W
LBAR 25.6N 68.4W 28.4N 67.4W 30.4N 65.4W 33.7N 60.3W
SHIP 58KTS 71KTS 78KTS 75KTS
DSHP 58KTS 71KTS 78KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.9N LONCUR = 68.7W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 17.9N LONM12 = 68.5W DIRM12 = 32DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 17.3N LONM24 = 69.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

The 00:00z run for 97L.Ship has it at 78kts.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #48 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:06 pm

cycloneye wrote:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL972005) ON 20051011 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051011 0000 051011 1200 051012 0000 051012 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.9N 68.7W 20.1N 68.5W 21.9N 68.3W 24.0N 68.2W
BAMM 18.9N 68.7W 20.4N 68.7W 22.1N 68.7W 23.8N 68.8W
A98E 18.9N 68.7W 19.6N 69.1W 20.7N 68.8W 22.6N 67.6W
LBAR 18.9N 68.7W 20.3N 68.9W 22.1N 69.0W 23.9N 68.8W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 50KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051013 0000 051014 0000 051015 0000 051016 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.0N 67.8W 28.6N 66.8W 30.8N 64.6W 34.8N 60.2W
BAMM 25.0N 68.4W 26.6N 67.4W 28.5N 64.5W 32.0N 60.3W
A98E 24.5N 66.6W 27.8N 64.2W 31.1N 61.4W 33.9N 56.0W
LBAR 25.6N 68.4W 28.4N 67.4W 30.4N 65.4W 33.7N 60.3W
SHIP 58KTS 71KTS 78KTS 75KTS
DSHP 58KTS 71KTS 78KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.9N LONCUR = 68.7W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 17.9N LONM12 = 68.5W DIRM12 = 32DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 17.3N LONM24 = 69.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

The 00:00z run for 97L.Ship has it at 78kts.

YABBA DABBA DOO!!!!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #49 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:07 pm

Come on Wilma form so we can open the door for Alpha!!! Wahoo!

WindRunner · #50 Postby **WindRunner** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:08 pm

I'd like it to be a major, just let it go north into the jet stream. Won't bother anyone and dry land that way.

hurricanefloyd5 · #51 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:17 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Come on Wilma form so we can open the door for Alpha!!! Wahoo!

hell yeah get wilma outta the way so we can make room for alpha and beta!!! :lol:

:lol

:

ps. if wilma dose show then hope wilma gose :blowup:

and then we can get :chopper:

recon in there and get a better idea of this possible system!!!!!!!!!!

yabaa dabba dooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

hicksta · #52 Postby **hicksta** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:36 pm

LOL floyd

#53 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:36 pm

The ULL is eye popping!

#54 Postby **cjrciadt** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 9:12 pm

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #55 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 9:54 pm

The 1030pm TWO has 530pm at the top on accident (look for ABNT20 KNHC 110250)

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS... SHOWERS... AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... AND THE NORTHERN
LESSER ANTILLES... AND THEN CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING SOME BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... AND CONTINUING WESTWARD ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA... SOME
GRADUAL SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

#56 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 10, 2005 9:58 pm

senorpepr wrote:The 1030pm TWO has 530pm at the top on accident (look for ABNT20 KNHC 110250)

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS... SHOWERS... AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... AND THE NORTHERN
LESSER ANTILLES... AND THEN CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING SOME BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... AND CONTINUING WESTWARD ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA... SOME
GRADUAL SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

Ok Mike good that you clarified about that.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #57 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 7:10 am

boca · #58 Postby **boca** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 8:38 am

Hey we might have a shot at Wilma look at 97L

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

It looks like its starting to wrap around let's hope so we can get to Alpha.

NastyCat4 · #59 Postby **NastyCat4** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 8:40 am

I love the cheerleaders for Alpha and Beta. Wait till they see their homeowner's insurance bills next year. Oh, I forgot, they're probably not old enough to own homes.

#60 Postby **sponger** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 8:48 am

No ones rooting for a land fall. Just some surf and a new record. Either way, they will be talking about 2005 for many years to come.

97L Invest

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