97L Invest

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #81 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 3:30 pm

nequad wrote:As if rooting, or rooting against, for something to develop makes a difference?

It's all out of our hands.

I know

. I was clarifying a position I established
earlier regarding what would be a "perfect" storm, i.e. a very
weak storm that gives me some much needed rain.

My discussion was of a light-hearted give-me-some-rain nature... :wink:

tornadochaser86 · #82 Postby **tornadochaser86** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 3:36 pm

weather channel says any development will be slow if it even develops
http://www.weather.com/tropics

NastyCat4 · #83 Postby **NastyCat4** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 3:36 pm

So, what is the point? All I was saying is that there is a clear pattern--it wasn't random, and did not buck climatology. It was an intense manifestation of what is possible in an active hurricane season. The Gulf of Mexico gets severe storms frequently--this year, they had the target on ther back just as Florida did last year, with a Cat 4 into the West Coast, a Cat 3 (very large one) into the East Central Coast, and a huge Cat 2 in the exact same area as the Cat 3. That was a clear pattern, and this year, the Gulf had the target, unfortunately.

caribepr · #84 Postby **caribepr** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 6:17 pm

NastyCat4 wrote:So, what is the point? All I was saying is that there is a clear pattern--it wasn't random, and did not buck climatology. It was an intense manifestation of what is possible in an active hurricane season. The Gulf of Mexico gets severe storms frequently--this year, they had the target on ther back just as Florida did last year, with a Cat 4 into the West Coast, a Cat 3 (very large one) into the East Central Coast, and a huge Cat 2 in the exact same area as the Cat 3. That was a clear pattern, and this year, the Gulf had the target, unfortunately.

I think what others are saying, from the top of the top mets down, is that this has been an extraordinary season that hasn't followed much in the way of recent seasons (recent being back to the beginning of recorded storms).
That would seem to be that point, but not the point of this thread, which is about a current system in development with some other rather interesting weather...which will be another historical notch to be dissected when it resolves itself...eventually.

#85 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 9:24 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 120221
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE OCT 11 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UNUSUALLY LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND ALL OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS...
FROM FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AMERICA. THE MAIN CENTER OF THE LOW IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
JAMAICA... WITH ANOTHER LOW CENTER LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. A LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM SOUTH OF BERMUDA SOUTHWARD ACROSS
HISPANIOLA... PUERTO RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... AND THEN
CONTINUING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA... AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY... IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. HOWEVER... ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO... AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN ADDITION
...WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM-FORCE IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

10:30 PM TWO.

Will sometning sub or tropical develop from all the mess in the Caribbean and Western Atlantic?

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #86 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 9:27 pm

cycloneye wrote:ABNT20 KNHC 120221
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE OCT 11 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UNUSUALLY LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND ALL OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS...
FROM FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AMERICA. THE MAIN CENTER OF THE LOW IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
JAMAICA... WITH ANOTHER LOW CENTER LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. A LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM SOUTH OF BERMUDA SOUTHWARD ACROSS
HISPANIOLA... PUERTO RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... AND THEN
CONTINUING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA... AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY... IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. HOWEVER... ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO... AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN ADDITION
...WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM-FORCE IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

10:30 PM TWO.

Will sometning sub or tropical develop from all the mess in the Caribbean and Western Atlantic?

IMO with shear decreasing and conditions expected to become
more favorable I think development in the Caribbean is
likely late this week.

#87 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 12, 2005 5:26 am

ABNT20 KNHC 120840
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED OCT 12 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UNUSUALLY LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ALL OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA... AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS... FROM FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS
SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA. THE MAIN CENTER OF THE LOW
IS LOCATED NEAR JAMAICA... WITH ANOTHER LOW CENTER LOCATED ABOUT
450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. A LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM NEAR BERMUDA SOUTHWARD ACROSS
HISPANIOLA... PUERTO RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... AND THEN
CONTINUING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA... AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY... IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. HOWEVER... ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO... AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN ADDITION
...WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM-FORCE IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

#88 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 12, 2005 9:03 am

It has been more than 36 hours since the last model run for this invest came out but no other one has been issued.I think that they are waiting for a more well defined low to pop up to then begin to track as there are several weak vortices in all this mess from the Caribbean to the western atlantic.

#89 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 12, 2005 10:15 am

170
ABNT20 KNHC 121513
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED OCT 12 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE BAND OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
AMERICA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE ARE NO SIGNS
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME AND ANY DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED PRIMARILY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
...PUERTO RICO... AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

11:30 AM TWO.

No Wilma on the horizon.

#90 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 12, 2005 10:40 am

97L

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

97L Out of NRL site.

weatherwoman · #91 Postby **weatherwoman** » Wed Oct 12, 2005 10:42 am

gotta wonder if anything else will get a name this year

caribepr · #92 Postby **caribepr** » Wed Oct 12, 2005 10:45 am

weatherwoman wrote:gotta wonder if anything else will get a name this year

I have a name for this weather we are getting, but it is not printable in a public forum

truballer#1 · #93 Postby **truballer#1** » Wed Oct 12, 2005 6:43 pm

gfdl:

#94 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 12, 2005 6:46 pm

That is old graphic from 10 oct.

Dr. Jonah Rainwater · #95 Postby **Dr. Jonah Rainwater** » Wed Oct 12, 2005 6:52 pm

caribepr wrote:
weatherwoman wrote:gotta wonder if anything else will get a name this year

I have a name for this weather we are getting, but it is not printable in a public forum

lmao - this wait for Wilma is tantalizing. It'll be even worse when we're all anticipating Alpha.

Weatherfreak14 · #96 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Wed Oct 12, 2005 9:41 pm

Yeah I can agree I just check any kind of weather site for good news. But be a sure I come here most often. lol :wink:

97L Invest

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