Will south florida's luck run out and when?

[wzrgirl1]

Obviously we had a direct hit with Katrina but when do you feel our luck will run out for a major? I mean it is purely a guess but I am curious as to opinions please.

[boca]

I think were ok for this season,but if we get a true cape verde storm next year traversing like a Frances type path 70 miles farther south were in trouble. Katrina formed just East of the Bahamas and it didn't have the time to turn into a major as far as were concerned.If Katrina formed north of Puerto Rico it might of been more disastrous.

[HURAKAN]

Maybe as early as this year, maybe next year, or maybe in the next decade. Sooner or later we will be in the hands of a major hurricane.

[Downdraft]

This has been said many times before but it still applies. Your "luck" this year is no worse than it was last year, will be next year or the year after that. You simply cannot predict a hurricanes potential to strike an area based upon past events. The truth of the matter is the entire coast from Brownsville to Boston shares the exact same general potential to be hit by a major hurricane. Some places are "luckier" than others because of geography and latitude. Will it occur? Of course it will if you look at a large enough period of time. If you throw enough darts at a dartboard eventually you'll hit the bullseye even if you weren't aiming for it.

[no advance]

Frances would of been really bad for south fl. Remember it weakened quite a bit when it moved north to central fl. I believe it could of been a cat 4 if it moved toward S. Fl.

[NastyCat4]

The truth of the matter is the entire coast from Brownsville to Boston shares the exact same general potential to be hit by a major hurricane.

Not true. Some areas are far more likely to get hit with a hurricane than others, based on history and climatology--Southeast Florida, the tip of Southwest Florida, Louisiana, the central Texas Coast, and Cape Hatteras are areas where more hurricane hits have occured.

So, the chances of seeing a hurricane in any given spot varies--for example, everybody knew that New Orleans was a vulnerable spot, as the Louisiana Coast has had multiple hits over the years.

[Downdraft]

The truth of the matter is the entire coast from Brownsville to Boston shares the exact same general potential to be hit by a major hurricane.

Not true. Some areas are far more likely to get hit with a hurricane than others, based on history and climatology--Southeast Florida, the tip of Southwest Florida, Louisiana, the central Texas Coast, and Cape Hatteras are areas where more hurricane hits have occured.

So, the chances of seeing a hurricane in any given spot varies--for example, everybody knew that New Orleans was a vulnerable spot, as the Louisiana Coast has had multiple hits over the years.

The potential is the same. The liklehood is a different matter.

[NastyCat4]

The potential is the same. The liklehood is a different matter.

No it isn't---look at Dr. Gray's interactive landfall tables. All areas are not created equal with respect to hurricanes. Some have, and will always get more storms than others.

[Blown Away]

Don't forget Palm Beach County which I think is still considered SFL got the southern eyewall of Frances and Jeanne. It wasn't Katrina but alot of people lost homes, not lucky in my book.

[wzrgirl1]

does it seem to you that people get offended whenever anybody brings up south florida? hmmm...maybe I am just reading into it....

[weatherwoman]

might not be a bad idea to keep an eye out for two more weeks

[docjoe]

try this link

http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/welcome.html

docjoe

[Downdraft]

The potential is the same. The liklehood is a different matter.

No it isn't---look at Dr. Gray's interactive landfall tables. All areas are not created equal with respect to hurricanes. Some have, and will always get more storms than others.

We agree to disagree.

[TS Zack]

Better hope it never runs out.

I went and saw Lakeview today. It is horrible. Everything is brown and nothing is standing. Signs, Lightpoles, Red Lights.... GONE... Houses look like a video from back in the 60's. Black and White.

The most weird thing is seeing on the homes the writing to see if there was dead people inside. We did see one house who had some. Just horrific in the city.

I think Katrina/Rita is what South Florida needs to teach all the die hards they can't stay for a major.

[THead]

I think were ok for this season,but if we get a true cape verde storm next year traversing like a Frances type path 70 miles farther south were in trouble. Katrina formed just East of the Bahamas and it didn't have the time to turn into a major as far as were concerned.If Katrina formed north of Puerto Rico it might of been more disastrous.

No kiddin, if we were to get a major on the path/landfall location Katrina had in Florida, it would be very ugly. Kind of stating the obvious I guess, but there hasn't been a big major storm to hit this area of the coast since the population explosion. Boca, Delray, Boynton, WPB and points further north too. The whole coast has really become heavily populated. Only a matter of time.

[MiamiensisWx]

Here would be an example of a catastrophic strike, potentially... not good if it verifies...


1ST LANDFALL - NEAR WEST PALM BEACH WITH 175MPH SUSTAINED WINDS (CAT. 5)
2ND LANDFALL - NEAR FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER WITH 145MPH SUSTAINED WINDS (CAT. 4)

[THead]

Could you imagine the freaking out in S. Fla. if that track and intensity ever verified? 185, 165, and 175mph coming through the bahamas......I don't know how those little islands would survive a storm like that. Would make the 2nd 145mph landfall look easy......which of course it wouldn't be, and the surge would probably be really bad again on the northern gulf coast.

Things would never be the same after a storm like that. Damages would be in the 100's of billions....would we ever be able to afford insurance after that? Or all move to Nebraska?

[KatDaddy]

TS Zack you said it. I truley know that I am lucky. I cannot stress enough how lucky we are in the Houston-Galveston area. Rita was as close as it can get before experiencing extreme conditions. I remember Alicia 83 and winds gusting to 100MPH. You really start to feel how insignificant we are against the power of nature with 100MPH winds much less the power of the storm surge. Godspeed to everyone effected the storms this year.

[MiamiensisWx]

Here is another potential very bad scenario... if it verified as well...

[Deb321]

Better hope it never runs out.

I went and saw Lakeview today. It is horrible. Everything is brown and nothing is standing. Signs, Lightpoles, Red Lights.... GONE... Houses look like a video from back in the 60's. Black and White.

The most weird thing is seeing on the homes the writing to see if there was dead people inside. We did see one house who had some. Just horrific in the city.

I think Katrina/Rita is what South Florida needs to teach all the die hards they can't stay for a major.

I was hit last year by Frances and Jeanne 3 weeks apart and stayed for both. I know they were not near as bad as Katrina or Rita but they were bad enough. I had alot of damage and Frances hammering on us for 24 hours was nerve racking to say the least. I personally won't even stay for a cat 3 again. No need in taking chances material things can be replaced.