If this is not a signal to the end of the season

[markymark8]

TROPICS ARE OVER!!! It will be hard for a storm or hurricane to form out in the Atlantic for the remaining season we have left. We could see maybe 1 or 2 weak storms try to organize before Nov 30th. It looks like Dr. Gray's forecast for October is going to be bogus for a change. Its just common sense. Look at the facts. There is alot more dry air and shear in place than expected. That is really normal this time of year though. We are also getting close to the end of October. This is when the strongest troughs come through and bring colder and drier air than we have now in place not to mention the most hostile shear in the Atlantic possible. Goodbye 2005 and thank God. Remember guys this is my personal opinion. The way this Hurricane season has been anything could happen. I really wouldn't be suprised if a major Hurricane popped up. I just dont see it happening guys. The facts we have all seen show nothing has been able to organize into anything worth watching for a while now and its not looking any better out there.

[cycloneye]

TROPICS ARE OVER!!! It will be hard for a storm or hurricane to form out in the Atlantic for the remaining season we have left. We could see maybe 1 or 2 weak storms try to organize before Nov 30th. It looks like Dr. Gray's forecast for October is going to be bogus for a change. Its just common sense. Look at the facts. There is alot more dry air and shear in place than expected. That is really normal this time of year though. We are also getting close to the end of October. This is when the strongest troughs come through and bring colder and drier air than we have now in place not to mention the most hostile shear in the Atlantic possible. Goodbye 2005 and thank God. Remember guys this is my personal opinion. The way this Hurricane season has been anything could happen. I really wouldn't be suprised if a major Hurricane popped up. I just dont see it happening guys. The facts we have all seen show nothing has been able to organize into anything worth watching for a while now and its not looking any better out there.

Dr Gray in his october update said 3/2/1.He has already his 3 with Stan,Tammy and Vince.Two Hurricanes with Stan and Vince.The only categorie that is left for him to get it is one more major.

[markymark8]

TROPICS ARE OVER!!! It will be hard for a storm or hurricane to form out in the Atlantic for the remaining season we have left. We could see maybe 1 or 2 weak storms try to organize before Nov 30th. It looks like Dr. Gray's forecast for October is going to be bogus for a change. Its just common sense. Look at the facts. There is alot more dry air and shear in place than expected. That is really normal this time of year though. We are also getting close to the end of October. This is when the strongest troughs come through and bring colder and drier air than we have now in place not to mention the most hostile shear in the Atlantic possible. Goodbye 2005 and thank God. Remember guys this is my personal opinion. The way this Hurricane season has been anything could happen. I really wouldn't be suprised if a major Hurricane popped up. I just dont see it happening guys. The facts we have all seen show nothing has been able to organize into anything worth watching for a while now and its not looking any better out there.

Dr Gray in his october update said 3/2/1.He has already his 3 with Stan,Tammy and Vince.Two Hurricanes with Stan and Vince.The only categorie that is left for him to get it is one more major.

That's where I think he will be wrong.

[wxcrazytwo]

Even if he does not get it, you gotta admit this has been one hell of a season. I think it blow 2004 out of the water. Who care if we get one major or not, the fact remains he has been pretty darn friggin close.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Even if he does not get it, you gotta admit this has been one hell of a season. I think it blow 2004 out of the water. Who care if we get one major or not, the fact remains he has been pretty darn friggin close.

I personally Think the Threat to the USA is over but not the Season..I think will See our Major Either in the Carribean heades NE ala Michelle like or one harmessly floating around the Central Atlantic Then out...Maybe 2 to Alpha but the time is ticking...

[MiamiensisWx]

TROPICS ARE OVER!!! It will be hard for a storm or hurricane to form out in the Atlantic for the remaining season we have left. We could see maybe 1 or 2 weak storms try to organize before Nov 30th. It looks like Dr. Gray's forecast for October is going to be bogus for a change. Its just common sense. Look at the facts. There is alot more dry air and shear in place than expected. That is really normal this time of year though. We are also getting close to the end of October. This is when the strongest troughs come through and bring colder and drier air than we have now in place not to mention the most hostile shear in the Atlantic possible. Goodbye 2005 and thank God. Remember guys this is my personal opinion. The way this Hurricane season has been anything could happen. I really wouldn't be suprised if a major Hurricane popped up. I just dont see it happening guys. The facts we have all seen show nothing has been able to organize into anything worth watching for a while now and its not looking any better out there.

Actually, I don't think there really is that much more shear and dry air than originally expected. Also, there is a lot of moisture in many areas, and there is not an overly or too strong SAL in place. Most of the dry air is the result of fronts passing through and climatology combined, creating drier conditions in areas of the Atlantic Basin. Anyway, these conditions are definately VERY TYPICAL for this time of year, just like you mentioned.

[weatherwindow]

Really don't think there's much more left--the alphabet soup kids will be disappointed, but maybe one more storm---probably will get Wilma. After that, conditions are getting hostile for tropical development, and the season has been full steam for 5 months. Heat energy is getting dissipated, and there will be a wind down.

Have we forgotten the "untouched" Carribean? We are definitely in the part of the season when things begin to wind down for most areas, but I would not be surprised if we get a couple more out of this area.

......in that vein, the MWD from the TAFB is suggesting that broad low pressure will persist in the sw caribbean as the gale center north of the islands exits the tropics....as the upper low recedes, high pressure will build over the western carib....slow development possible. apparently the models may be on to something given the general consensus among the ukmet, cmc, gfs et al....oh yes, more hurricanes landfall florida in october than any other month...time will tell............rich

[Weatherfreak000]

Someone explain the mindset to me that the season will go on at the same pace forever--that just isn't good science. SSTS are cooling down gradually, shear is prevalent, and upper level winds are far from favorable. Yes, we many have one, or possibly two more storms, but it simply isn't going on forever--the amount of heat energy is not infinite, and that fuels storms as much as does anything else.

oh yeah what about Vince huh? EXPLAIN THAT.



then stop talking because your wrong.

[NastyCat4]

Whatever. You wish to ignore Dr. Gray, and Science, go right ahead.

[wxcrazytwo]

As you can see things are starting to cool down. Anything going into the Gulf won't be nothing more than a TS or Cat 1, the Carib is also cooling down, but farther south is seeming to hold its heat, but the winds are going west, the Atlantic will that hasn't really produced anything substantial. I think the season is winding down and becoming closed.

[Weatherfreak000]

Whatever. You wish to ignore Dr. Gray, and Science, go right ahead.

No reasonable scientist is gonna outright say "The season is definitely over" or "We'll probably only get one more and that's it". Our average past October 10 is two to three storms and we allready have one. Nothing significant is occuring that changes the outflow of activity.




How many seasons have you monitored Nasty? I've been watching hurricanes actively for a long while and I can assure you this same discussion goes on EVERY year and it's almost always wrong.

[thunderchief]

the carribean is still good for a storm or 2, and there could be those subtropical fringe storms.

I still say we get to 22 or 23.

[Anonymous]

Well...here come the people with no credibility....the seasons over after Gert....the seasons dead after Irene....the season is dead after Katrina....

I still think a major hurricane will occur before November 30, and tracks I see likely are:::

[yoda]

Well...here come the people with no credibility....the seasons over after Gert....the seasons dead after Irene....the season is dead after Katrina....

I still think a major hurricane will occur before November 30, and tracks I see likely are:::

Mike, I am not so sure. Wouldn't a storm forming down there have a hard time reaching major status due to shear, land interaction, and gping over Cuba?

[NastyCat4]

Well, if those tracks are gonna verify, they better hurry up. Water here is down to 79 degrees, and most of the water off the Florida Coast is cooling down. Southeast Carribbean is the only real "hot spot" left.

[Anonymous]

Mike, I am not so sure. Wouldn't a storm forming down there have a hard time reaching major status due to shear, land interaction, and gping over Cuba?

YES...But shear changes. Just because there is shear in the NW Caribbean of 40 kts two days before Hurricane Joe arrives...does not mean the shear will still exist two days later.

It seems like your in the mindset that once shears there...its there. On October 9, 2001...Hurricane Iris made landfall in Belize as a Cat 4. Then...there was shear. However, shear died down at the same time Michelle formed in late October...and Michelle became a Cat 4 on Nov 2.

Just because waves are not coming off Africa one day, does not mean the Cape Verde seasons over. Just because there may be shear..does not mean shear will stay that exact strength in that exact area until the start of the next hurricane season.

As for land...once the storm hits land...its gonna weaken. I dont quite understand what you mean.

[Anonymous]

Well, if those tracks are gonna verify, they better hurry up. Water here is down to 79 degrees, and most of the water off the Florida Coast is cooling down. Southeast Carribbean is the only real "hot spot" left.

Tell that to the bouys reading 85 degrees south of Jamaica

[yoda]

Mike, I am not so sure. Wouldn't a storm forming down there have a hard time reaching major status due to shear, land interaction, and gping over Cuba?

YES...But shear changes. Just because there is shear in the NW Caribbean of 40 kts two days before Hurricane Joe arrives...does not mean the shear will still exist two days later.

It seems like your in the mindset that once shears there...its there. On October 9, 2001...Hurricane Iris made landfall in Belize as a Cat 4. Then...there was shear. However, shear died down at the same time Michelle formed in late October...and Michelle became a Cat 4 on Nov 2.

Just because waves are not coming off Africa one day, does not mean the Cape Verde seasons over. Just because there may be shear..does not mean shear will stay that exact strength in that exact area until the start of the next hurricane season.

As for land...once the storm hits land...its gonna weaken. I dont quite understand what you mean.

Hurricane Joe?

Anyway, interesting points there Mike. I didn't mean that there would always be shear, I was pointing to the fact that shear is almost always present in some form, be it 5 kts or 50 kts.

By the land question, I was trying to point out that I don't know if there is enough room for a full-fledged development of a major hurricane there. It would have to take some big-time intensification with Central America around, and Cuba, etc, it would halt some of the outflow and constrict it. (I may be wrong here, so I apologize if I am)

But, as you said, shear comes and goes. We will see if your prediction pans out.

[Anonymous]

Anyway, interesting points there Mike. I didn't mean that there would always be shear, I was pointing to the fact that shear is almost always present in some form, be it 5 kts or 50 kts.

By the land question, I was trying to point out that I don't know if there is enough room for a full-fledged development of a major hurricane there. It would have to take some big-time intensification with Central America around, and Cuba, etc, it would halt some of the outflow and constrict it. (I may be wrong here, so I apologize if I am)

But, as you said, shear comes and goes. We will see if your prediction pans out.

Well, 5 kts is EXTREMELY favorable for a tropical cyclone...infact, it 15-20 kts that can finally really begin to hinder/prevent development.

As for land, as long as the center stays over the water, storms can go quick:::

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

All I went is Wilma then Alpha!!!