98L Invest Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Scorpion]

Weather has been pretty hot and boring. Last year at the time we got our first cool shot that took us down into the 50's. Nothing at all this year, staying hot and dry. A TS in this area would be nice .

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This could get pretty significant..all that warm water and
decreasing shear...My level of concern for this area
of the Caribbean has risen since this morning.

Local Meteorologists said that conditions in the west caribbean
out ahead of this system could be "extremely favorable"
for development. The Met also made a comparison to
Charley (Track-Wise, not Intensity-Wise), and said we need
to watch.

[Patrick99]

I agree - the weather has been hot and boring. Some years we get that cool shot, others we don't. I just remember those few years we didn't get a real frontal passage until New Years' Day. I've spent too many Thanksgivings sweating in the humidity, to be able to expect cool weather then.

I honestly would not mind a big, slow, lumbering Cat. 1 coming up over Cuba. Give me a day off. Maybe 2 or 3. Of course, there's not much to do on those days....but maybe I'd drive over to the west coast, where everything would be open.

[TampaFl]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Local Meteorologists said that conditions in the west caribbean
out ahead of this system could be "extremely favorable"
for development. The Met also made a comparison to
Charley (Track-Wise, not Intensity-Wise), and said we need
to watch.

[hicksta]

Nobody can forcast the weather that far out.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Local Meteorologists said that conditions in the west caribbean
out ahead of this system could be "extremely favorable"
for development. The Met also made a comparison to
Charley (Track-Wise, not Intensity-Wise), and said we need
to watch.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Nobody can forcast the weather that far out.

There's nothing wrong with a meteorologist telling us to be cautious
for a possible system.

He didn't say anything was EXACT- but a panhandle/peninsula/south
florida threat
is what typically occurs in late october with strengthening cold
fronts that protect the Western and Central GOM.

[chrisnnavarre]

Very weak steering currents...if it developes it could probably go anywhere. Of course my wife just made me take down my window boards...

Go figure.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Eastern GOM and FL will have to watch for troughs into
next week.

If there are no troughs then the possibilities are limitless...

[hicksta]

Iv seen some models take it over the YUC. Have yet to see once take her to FL.

Eastern GOM and FL will have to watch for troughs into
next week.

If there are no troughs then the possibilities are limitless...

[Canelaw99]

Hicksta - check out the current CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005101400&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Iv seen some models take it over the YUC. Have yet to see once take her to FL.

Eastern GOM and FL will have to watch for troughs into
next week.

If there are no troughs then the possibilities are limitless...

The "possibilites are limitless" if we get no troughs.
If we do get troughs, it's a different game.
We'll have to wait and see

[hicksta]

Its the CMC model, It isnt the best one of them. But if we see more models picking up this than id be worried. But right now its so far out who knows. Iv gotta go to my next class period il talk to yall later.

Hicksta - check out the current CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005101400&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Its the CMC model, It isnt the best one of them. But if we see more models picking up this than id be worried. But right now its so far out who knows. Iv gotta go to my next class period il talk to yall later.

Hicksta - check out the current CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005101400&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

LOL I get a day off of school today for district planning purposes
So I get to track the tropics all day

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

[x-y-no]

Its the CMC model, It isnt the best one of them. But if we see more models picking up this than id be worried. But right now its so far out who knows. Iv gotta go to my next class period il talk to yall later.

Hicksta - check out the current CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005101400&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

I agree the CMC is out to luch on this one.

More significantly, IMHO, the UKMET and the Euro both suggest development in the 5 to 7 day timeframe in the western Caribbean. I'm giving that some credence because they seem to have the best grasp of the situation right now.

[Nimbus]

Sea surface temperatures are in the mid 80's in the Caribbean and the forecast shear is low.

I have a bad feeling the 21st named storm of this season could become a major hurricane.

There is a large ridge over the gulf that would provide WNW steering initially. If the ridge moves east we could see a Florida landfall. The only good news is that the SST's are a little cooler in the gulf and there is a little more dry air.

[cycloneye]

NOUS42 KNHC 141400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 14 OCT 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z OCT 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-139

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 17N AND 80W FOR 16/2000Z.




It looks like the interest of NHC for this system is increasing.

[Cookiely]

Uh oh...Convection really starting to flare up...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I'm doing a rain dance. The vegetables need some rain and the grass is getting crispy.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Uh oh...Convection really starting to flare up...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I'm doing a rain dance. The vegetables need some rain and the grass is getting crispy.

We could get a bad drought in tampa bay; our rainy
season is effectively shut down by cold dry fronts and we
may not see much until next June....

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 18.5N 76.5W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 14.10.2005 18.5N 76.5W WEAK

00UTC 15.10.2005 17.5N 79.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 15.10.2005 17.0N 80.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 16.10.2005 15.8N 80.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 16.10.2005 17.0N 80.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 17.10.2005 16.0N 80.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 17.10.2005 16.6N 81.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 18.10.2005 16.5N 81.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 18.10.2005 16.5N 82.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 19.10.2005 16.5N 83.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.10.2005 16.5N 84.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 20.10.2005 17.0N 86.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY




12z UKMET.