98L Invest Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Ixolib]

Uh oh...Convection really starting to flare up...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

True - And what conditions exist to inhibit development? Shear? SSTs? In my amateur way of looking at things, conditions west of the convection don't look all that unfavorable...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Uh oh...Convection really starting to flare up...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

True - And what conditions exist to inhibit development? Shear? SSTs? In my amateur way of looking at things, conditions west of the convection don't look all that unfavorable...

Yup.
Conditions are to be favorable over this area.
Development likely.

[MortisFL]

Bears watching...conditions appear a lot more favorable then the last few days.

[Stratosphere747]

UKMET shows whatever it will be moving towards C America....Last thing they need is more rain.

[cycloneye]

A SURFACE TROUGH...ORIGINATING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSES
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF JAMAICA. MORE RECENT 14/1500 UTC
OBSERVATIONS SEEM TO MARK THIS LOW CENTER NOW IN NORTH CENTRAL
JAMAICA. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO EASTERN HONDURAS AND THEN
CURVES INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON TOP OF NORTH CENTRAL JAMAICA AND TO THE
SOUTH OF JAMAICA EXTENDING ABOUT 85 NM OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST
BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN COASTS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THE PREDOMINANT WIND FLOW PATTERN IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WEST OF THE CYCLONIC
FLOW IS FROM THE NORTHEAST. LINES OF ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N69W 14N71W 12N73W...AND
10N82W 13N78W 17N73W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...WEAKENING
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...FROM LAND TO 17N BETWEEN 85W AND
THE GULF OF HONDURAS.


2 PM Discussion about this area.

[Noah]

if this thinf developes, can someone tell me where they think it might go, my question got overlooked, any models yet?

[MortisFL]

1006 mb low..

interesting they didnt mention more about possible development in the 2pm discussion.

[Thunder44]

Looking at visible images, it looks like a surface circulation is trying to close off right over Jamaica. Is it unlikely for this to become a TD over Jamaica?

[cycloneye]

Here is 98 folks.

[MiamiensisWx]

When will the new model runs arrive?

[cycloneye]

When will the new model runs arrive?

Very soon they will be out.

[artist]

from http://www.stormcarib.com -

Nasty Weather
From: "Sue Morris" <sue.island at cwjamaica.com>
Date: Fri, 14 Oct 2005 11:00:05 -0400

HMMMM, we have to be careful what we wish for during the hot dry season.

Ocho Rios is experiencing the worst weather we have seen in a long time. It is not often that we get lightning hits in this area, usually they stay out at sea for all to watch and admire. Not today. Lightning and thunder all around. The rains are intense and I'm sure if I could get out of my yard, the flooding would be significant.

The helicopter that my husband operates has landed at Duncans trying to make it back to Ochi from Montego Bay, weather is just too bad.

Of course we have Heroes Weekend this weekend, with all kinds of activities for the 3 days, to include the launch of the new MTV Caribbean Channel, hopefully they are going to issue gum boots and brollys at the gate. Need to find a good book for the weekend as I'm sure the cable will be out.

Life in the tropics, we all love it

Hope everyone stays dry

Sue M

[cycloneye]

Windtalker1 as I said at first page the title of the thread would change if it was with less than 5 pages and that happened.Now I can tell you that I will edit many times the title to put the latest and if it develops into a TD this thread will close and a new thread for TD24 will be created.

[HURAKAN]

Windtalker1 as I said at first page the title of the thread would change if it was with less than 5 pages and that happened.Now I can tell you that I will edit many times the title to put the latest and if it develops into a TD this thread will close and a new thread for TD23 will be created.

TD 24, VINCE TECHNICALLY WAS 23.

[cycloneye]

Windtalker1 as I said at first page the title of the thread would change if it was with less than 5 pages and that happened.Now I can tell you that I will edit many times the title to put the latest and if it develops into a TD this thread will close and a new thread for TD23 will be created.

TD 24, VINCE TECHNICALLY WAS 23.

Oops yes you are right.

[Scorpion]

Looks very good. TD by 5 maybe.

[cycloneye]

Looks very good. TD by 5 maybe.

NO very early for it as it's in the early phase or as someone said infant stages of development.

[P.K.]

WHXX01 KWBC 141847
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION (AL982005) ON 20051014 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051014 1800 051015 0600 051015 1800 051016 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.5N 77.0W 18.8N 77.9W 19.2N 78.6W 19.9N 79.0W
BAMM 18.5N 77.0W 18.9N 77.9W 19.3N 78.9W 19.8N 79.6W
A98E 18.5N 77.0W 18.9N 78.3W 19.1N 79.4W 19.5N 80.2W
LBAR 18.5N 77.0W 18.9N 78.1W 19.9N 79.1W 21.1N 79.5W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 42KTS 52KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 42KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051016 1800 051017 1800 051018 1800 051019 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.5N 78.9W 20.1N 78.5W 19.8N 79.1W 20.7N 78.4W
BAMM 20.3N 80.0W 20.0N 81.1W 19.4N 83.2W 19.2N 85.1W
A98E 20.0N 80.7W 20.2N 82.3W 20.1N 83.8W 20.0N 84.8W
LBAR 22.5N 78.6W 24.9N 74.2W 28.8N 68.3W 35.6N 56.3W
SHIP 60KTS 71KTS 71KTS 65KTS
DSHP 60KTS 71KTS 71KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.5N LONCUR = 77.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 17.6N LONM12 = 75.7W DIRM12 = 322DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 16.2N LONM24 = 74.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[DESTRUCTION5]

WHXX01 KWBC 141847
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION (AL982005) ON 20051014 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051014 1800 051015 0600 051015 1800 051016 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.5N 77.0W 18.8N 77.9W 19.2N 78.6W 19.9N 79.0W
BAMM 18.5N 77.0W 18.9N 77.9W 19.3N 78.9W 19.8N 79.6W
A98E 18.5N 77.0W 18.9N 78.3W 19.1N 79.4W 19.5N 80.2W
LBAR 18.5N 77.0W 18.9N 78.1W 19.9N 79.1W 21.1N 79.5W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 42KTS 52KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 42KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051016 1800 051017 1800 051018 1800 051019 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.5N 78.9W 20.1N 78.5W 19.8N 79.1W 20.7N 78.4W
BAMM 20.3N 80.0W 20.0N 81.1W 19.4N 83.2W 19.2N 85.1W
A98E 20.0N 80.7W 20.2N 82.3W 20.1N 83.8W 20.0N 84.8W
LBAR 22.5N 78.6W 24.9N 74.2W 28.8N 68.3W 35.6N 56.3W
SHIP 60KTS 71KTS 71KTS 65KTS
DSHP 60KTS 71KTS 71KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.5N LONCUR = 77.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 17.6N LONM12 = 75.7W DIRM12 = 322DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 16.2N LONM24 = 74.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Looks like a Spagetti map Coming

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[O Town]

Wow, new invest eh? Looks pretty good. Can't wait to see the model runs.