98L Invest Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Now things are really starting to get concerning.

Ships makes this a cane in 3days.
Will have to wait for plots to see where it is going.

[MortisFL]

Plots are out..mostly taking it west, with exception to LBAR...but its really early.

Now things are really starting to get concerning.

Ships makes this a cane in 3days.
Will have to wait for plots to see where it is going.

[Brent]

Slow-mover. Ugh...

[DESTRUCTION5]

Slow-mover. Ugh...

I smell A Michelle Brent...

[cycloneye]

Graphic of this 18:00z run for 98L.

Destruction5 said the word for this model input Spaggetti

[weatherwindow]

Windtalker1 I have a feeling that this thread will be the most viewed and replied one in comming days so if you dont mind I am editing many times part of the title to put the latest.If an invest goes up this thread will continue open saying invest #...,Comments,Sat Pics,Models thread if it has less than 5 pages.But if it has more than 5 then a new thread will be created for the new invest when they issued it at NRL.

.....good afternoon luis,.. any thoughts on this developing system particularly for cayo hueso...nws/eyw thinks recurvature over central cuba, south and east of the keys..time will tell...looks pretty troughy upstream ......rich

[Scorpion]

I think a weak cane in the GOM. Probably a panhandler.

[LarryWx]

The FRI 10/21 12Z map from the just released 12Z 10/14 ECMWF has a strong TC (probably a hurricane) moving WNW into the SE GOM through the Yucatan Channel. Keep in mind, however, that the ECMWF has been too far west for a number of storms recently, which I believe may be caused by the ECMWF's ridging/ moderate warm bias of late. So, if I were going to adjust the ECMWF track, I'd lean toward a further east and north track perhaps threatening the FL peninsula directly. This would be more climo favored for middle OCT than the ECMWF track. Here is the 10/21 12Z map:

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Can someone tell me what atmospheric dynamics
are supposed to take place? Right now there is high
pressure over the SE steering it westward. What is supposed
to take place in the coming week? Troughs? High Pressure?

[bigmike]

I think a weak cane in the GOM. Probably a panhandler.

Doubtful as high pressure is supposed to be in the Gulf all week next week. A cold front is coming through Wednesday so it would pick anything up and take it north and east. Next time try to back up your quotes with reasoning. Too many people get panicked when statements like that are made.

[Weatherboy1]

OF BIGGER CHALLENGE IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE FORECAST IS
WHETHER OR NOT ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR WITH THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA PRESENTLY LOCATED NEAR JAMAICA. A SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD
IN POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS IS PRESENTED BY THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL
RUNS...CURRENTLY RANGING FROM A FEW OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BRINGING THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CMC MODELS MAINTAIN A TRACK FURTHER TOWARD THE EAST. THE MOST IMMEDIATE
IMPACT OF ANY DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS ON SUNDAY
AS SOUTH FLORIDA IS WEDGED BETWEEN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTH FLORIDA AND LOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN. AS FOR ANYTHING
MORE...WE`LL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

As someone else pointed out, the models are in "spaghetti" mode with this potential system. Climatologically speaking, though, an east Gulf/FL/E of FL path is typically what you see this time of year, though you can always end up with a system getting pushed W or S of W into Central America too. Too early to tell, frankly.

[LarryWx]

Here is the corresponding 500 mb map as of 12Z FRI 10/21. Too much ridging to its north due to its bias?:

[cycloneye]

Windtalker1 I have a feeling that this thread will be the most viewed and replied one in comming days so if you dont mind I am editing many times part of the title to put the latest.If an invest goes up this thread will continue open saying invest #...,Comments,Sat Pics,Models thread if it has less than 5 pages.But if it has more than 5 then a new thread will be created for the new invest when they issued it at NRL.

.....good afternoon luis,.. any thoughts on this developing system particularly for cayo hueso...nws/eyw thinks recurvature over central cuba, south and east of the keys..time will tell...looks pretty troughy upstream ......rich

To early to tell because it is not even a TD yet and we have to have a well defined low pressure to then start to track but the best I can tell you at this point is that it will be a slow mover as the currents will not be strong and it can go in any direction.About what will happen with the troughs,ridges etc I know that our resident pro mets will share light about the pattern that may shape up in the comming days for this system.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Windtalker1 I have a feeling that this thread will be the most viewed and replied one in comming days so if you dont mind I am editing many times part of the title to put the latest.If an invest goes up this thread will continue open saying invest #...,Comments,Sat Pics,Models thread if it has less than 5 pages.But if it has more than 5 then a new thread will be created for the new invest when they issued it at NRL.

.....good afternoon luis,.. any thoughts on this developing system particularly for cayo hueso...nws/eyw thinks recurvature over central cuba, south and east of the keys..time will tell...looks pretty troughy upstream ......rich

To early to tell because it is not even a TD yet and we have to have a well defined low pressure to then start to track but the best I can tell you at this point os that it will be a slow mover as the currents will not be strong.About what will happen with the troughs,ridges etc I know that our resident pro mets will share light about the pattern that may shape up in the comming days for this system.

Thank you I will be watching for the troughs/pattern
analysis in coming days by pro-mets.

[LarryWx]

As I said, the ECMWF has had a tendency to be too far west recently, which imo is likely due to too much ridging/moderate warm bias at 500 mb. Here is a map that shows the moderate warm bias of the ECMWF along with other models like the constant cold bias of the GFS meaning it may tend to recurve storms too sharply/quickly due to too weak ridging/too much troughing:

[cycloneye]

Hey noone has said this in this thread yet. This system will be the best chance to tie the 1933 season record of 21 named systems and finish the list of names with Wilma and after Wilma there come the greek ones.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Hey noone has said this in this thread yet. This system will be the best chance to tie the 1933 season record of 21 named systems and finish the list of names with Wilma.

Were so used to Shear lately were all holding our breath

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Hey noone has said this in this thread yet. This system will be the best chance to tie the 1933 season record of 21 named systems and finish the list of names with Wilma.

Were so used to Shear lately were all holding our breath

A local met said that conditions will become "extremely favorable
in the western Caribbean" over the next few days. So it looks
like we may be singing Flinstones songs by the end of this weekend...

[cjrciadt]

heat potential

SST

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The SSTs and Oceanic Heat Contents are very favorable for
building a powerful system. It's going to be a wild ride folks.