98L Invest Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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cycloneye
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#81 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 14, 2005 2:44 pm

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#82 Postby Brent » Fri Oct 14, 2005 2:44 pm

I'm concerned about a slow-mover down in the Caribbean for a few days... and then getting picked up by the front and racing NE towards Florida.
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conestogo_flood
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#83 Postby conestogo_flood » Fri Oct 14, 2005 2:47 pm

Wow, I forgot all about the tropics. I don't understand F temps, is the water warm enough to support at least a category three if this thing explodes? Or are we talking tropical storm or minimal category one potential?
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#84 Postby whereverwx » Fri Oct 14, 2005 2:53 pm

I wonder if the dry air will kill it.
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#85 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 14, 2005 2:53 pm

14/1745 UTC 18.4N 77.1W OVERLAND 98 -- Atlantic Ocean

The low is over Jamaica according to SSD dvorak technnique sat estimates.
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#86 Postby krysof » Fri Oct 14, 2005 2:55 pm

Calamity wrote:I wonder if the dry air will kill it.
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doesn't look like it right now
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#87 Postby Brent » Fri Oct 14, 2005 3:01 pm

conestogo_flood wrote:Wow, I forgot all about the tropics. I don't understand F temps, is the water warm enough to support at least a category three if this thing explodes? Or are we talking tropical storm or minimal category one potential?


Water temperatures(at least at the surface) are sufficent... still well into the 80's.
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#88 Postby CHRISTY » Fri Oct 14, 2005 3:05 pm

what are the chances of a hurricane irene type track??
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#89 Postby Bgator » Fri Oct 14, 2005 3:16 pm

CHRISTY wrote:what are the chances of a hurricane irene type track??
Yes i would liek to know this too... As far as i know there is a chance but seems less likley than othjer options!
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#90 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Fri Oct 14, 2005 3:28 pm

Convection really expanding, even though the low is over land...
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#91 Postby Windtalker1 » Fri Oct 14, 2005 3:31 pm

cycloneye wrote:Windtalker1 as I said at first page the title of the thread would change if it was with less than 5 pages and that happened.Now I can tell you that I will edit many times the title to put the latest and if it develops into a TD this thread will close and a new thread for TD24 will be created.
Glad I was the 1st to pick up on this new development....3 cheers for me :wink:
Last edited by Windtalker1 on Fri Oct 14, 2005 3:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#92 Postby truballer#1 » Fri Oct 14, 2005 3:37 pm

dr jeff masters say 70% of being a td monday and possibly major hurricane in the later weeks
Last edited by truballer#1 on Fri Oct 14, 2005 3:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#93 Postby mike815 » Fri Oct 14, 2005 3:37 pm

and i posted 1st on this thread this morning when the system really started firing yeah
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#94 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Oct 14, 2005 3:40 pm

CHRISTY wrote:what are the chances of a hurricane irene type track??


LMAO...I knew this was commin...unfortuneatly Christy I think there is a relatively good chance this time...
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#95 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Oct 14, 2005 3:44 pm

Come on Wilma come on!!! Wahoo!!!

Shear maps shows faverable upper levels...With a strong upper level high over it. The LLC seems to be about 80 miles south of Jamica or around 17.8/77.5. I think development is likely!!!

Come on Wilma wahoo!!! :)
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#96 Postby CHRISTY » Fri Oct 14, 2005 3:44 pm

what you think is going to affect this storms path a few days from now?
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#97 Postby flhurricaneguy » Fri Oct 14, 2005 3:49 pm

must you always pick on christy?
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#98 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Oct 14, 2005 3:52 pm

definitely becoming more concentrated
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#99 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Fri Oct 14, 2005 3:57 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Come on Wilma come on!!! Wahoo!!!

Shear maps shows faverable upper levels...With a strong upper level high over it. The LLC seems to be about 80 miles south of Jamica or around 17.8/77.5. I think development is likely!!!

Come on Wilma wahoo!!! :)


I "wahoo"ed jokingly earlier...but I really hope this isn't Wilma
especially since West FL and Panhandle could be two of the areas that could be threatened by this in the coming days.

And the fact that this has conditions and SSTs and Oceanic Heat
Content + absence of shear = Possible major hurricane
Any troughs that dig into the GOM will have me really concerned.
I see little that could stop this from becoming
a significant hurricane.
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Fri Oct 14, 2005 4:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Scorpion

#100 Postby Scorpion » Fri Oct 14, 2005 3:59 pm

I doubt this will form into anything more than a TS. Just another name down.
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