98L Invest Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[krysof]

I doubt this will form into anything more than a TS. Just another name down.

why, upper level winds are favorable and will improve, SST's are abnormally high still, why wouldn't this be anything more. Just because it's mid October doesn't mean a storm can't explode. If things are in place like in August and September than a monster will definetelly form

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I doubt this will form into anything more than a TS. Just another name down.

Conditions are likely for at least a hurricane, and if it
slows down with the weak steering currents- a major hurricane
1. High Oceanic Heat Content
2. SSTs 85+
3. Lack of Shear
4. Upper level anticyclone and high to north aiding in development

I am going to go get some info on trough forecasts for the next week;
any significant troughs would be bad news...

[Cookiely]

Could this disturbance get as strong as Hazel? Was Hazel a once in a lifetime event? Does anyone know if the SST's were warmer for Hazel then they are now?

[Ivanhater]

i agree, conditions are favorable for this to intensify......where are all the pros at???

[Scorpion]

I like to be cautious. However, if it quickly forms into a TD by the end of the day or perhaps tomorrow then I'll change my mind.

[MortisFL]

I doubt this will form into anything more than a TS. Just another name down.

Didn't you say this would be a weak cane into the Panhandle?

Scorpion:"I think a weak cane in the GOM. Probably a panhandler." Posted in this same thread.

[krysof]

heat potential

SST

and look at this chart, the potential is there for a major hurricane

[CHRISTY]

local mets here in south florida are saying a front maybe coming and may drop our moring temps just a bit early next week... could this play a role in this systems track?

[Thunder44]

From the 5:30pm TWO:

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR JAMAICA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALSO INCREASED AND BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO POSSIBLY FORM LATER TONIGHT
OR ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... AND INTERESTS IN JAMAICA... CUBA... AND THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS TENTATIVELY SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY.

[Ivanhater]

i remember don talking about a panhandle hurricane around october 15th a few weeks ago, im not sure if this is the one hes talking about...sure would like to get his thoughts

[sponger]

Time to gas up the plane and have a look!

[Ivanhater]

Mobile/Pensacola AFD.....talks about the ridge and the trough

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH VERY LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ALL GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING ON THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH A PIECE
OF THE ENERGY BREAKING OFF AND CLOSING OFF...AS IT BECOMES SEPARATED
FROM THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM TO THE NORTH...IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS SERVES TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGING DOWNSTREAMACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. THUS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WHICH IS AN AREA OF DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND SUPPORTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. CUTOFF LOW
MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
MEANING VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT OF FEATURES IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THE JET. THUS THE AREA REMAINS DRY WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS DURING THE
DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS RUNNING 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AND
LOWS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO TO BEGIN THE WEEK...THEN
GRADUALLY WARMING TO JUST ABOVE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. APPROACH
OF NEXT TROUGH TOWARD THE WEST COAST FINALLY BUCKLES THE FLOW ENOUGH
TO KICK THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO BEGIN TO TURN TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AND ALLOW A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA...WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG RETURNING TO THE FORECAST. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE NOTORIOUSLY FAST
WITH EJECTING SW US UPPER LOWS...AND TIMING WILL LIKELY BE SLOWER
THAN WHAT IS ALREADY INDICATED AND THIS IS ALREADY SHOWING UP IN THE
NEW 12Z DATA ROLLING IN. HOWEVER...THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
ADJUSTMENTS AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
DRY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES
UNTIL LATE IN THE EXTENDED AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THAT AS NEXT
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA./13

[vbhoutex]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Looking at this loop I can not find a LLCC at this time. There is a definite mid-level, albeit a very broad circulation. With conditions improving as we type a TD within 36 hours would not be a surprise. I haven't looked at conditions past right now really, but if/when a TC forms from this I would expect intial motion to be per NHC's 5:30(WNW) and then as a trough, if it gets close enough, approaches from the W a turn back to the N and NE and across the FL Peninsula somewhere(yes I know I am chicken for not being more precise! ). As usual the speed and strength of the approaching trough and the speed and strength of the developing TC are all important here as the correlation between the two will directly affect the steering of this system, should it develop. At this point I do not see a W GOM threat unless it totally misses the trough and can survive a trip across the Yuc.

[Ivanhater]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Looking at this loop I can not find a LLCC at this time. There is a definite mid-level, albeit a very broad circulation. With conditions improving as we type a TD within 36 hours would not be a surprise. I haven't looked at conditions past right now really, but if/when a TC forms from this I would expect intial motion to be per NHC's 5:30(WNW) and then as a trough, if it gets close enough, approaches from the W a turn back to the N and NE and across the FL Peninsula somewhere(yes I know I am chicken for not being more precise! ). As usual the speed and strength of the approaching trough and the speed and strength of the developing TC are all important here as the correlation between the two will directly affect the steering of this system, should it develop. At this point I do not see a W GOM threat unless it totally misses the trough and can survive a trip across the Yuc.

not thinking a panhandle storm at this time?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Looking at this loop I can not find a LLCC at this time. There is a definite mid-level, albeit a very broad circulation. With conditions improving as we type a TD within 36 hours would not be a surprise. I haven't looked at conditions past right now really, but if/when a TC forms from this I would expect intial motion to be per NHC's 5:30(WNW) and then as a trough, if it gets close enough, approaches from the W a turn back to the N and NE and across the FL Peninsula somewhere(yes I know I am chicken for not being more precise! ). As usual the speed and strength of the approaching trough and the speed and strength of the developing TC are all important here as the correlation between the two will directly affect the steering of this system, should it develop. At this point I do not see a W GOM threat unless it totally misses the trough and can survive a trip across the Yuc.

[CHRISTY]

i agree! i think this will drift west slowly for a day or to then as coldfront drops down this will maybe turn this sytem NE back to florida... were in florida i say more towards the southern part of the state. opinions.

[stormandan28]

will even see the gulf of mexico probably will go into mexicco.

[vbhoutex]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Looking at this loop I can not find a LLCC at this time. There is a definite mid-level, albeit a very broad circulation. With conditions improving as we type a TD within 36 hours would not be a surprise. I haven't looked at conditions past right now really, but if/when a TC forms from this I would expect intial motion to be per NHC's 5:30(WNW) and then as a trough, if it gets close enough, approaches from the W a turn back to the N and NE and across the FL Peninsula somewhere(yes I know I am chicken for not being more precise! ). As usual the speed and strength of the approaching trough and the speed and strength of the developing TC are all important here as the correlation between the two will directly affect the steering of this system, should it develop. At this point I do not see a W GOM threat unless it totally misses the trough and can survive a trip across the Yuc.

not thinking a panhandle storm at this time?

Not yet at least. As I said the timing of each component is everything this time of year. If that trough comes in SLOWER than currently apparently anticipated then it could become a panhandle threat.

[Ivanhater]

" i agree! i think this will drift west slowly for a day or to then as coldfront drops down this will maybe turn this sytem NE back to florida... were in florida i say more towards the southern part of the state. opinions. "


keep in mind, the mobile/pensacola afd talks about the trough being a little slower than what is forecast right now, as the new data comes in...this could be important

[Ivanhater]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Looking at this loop I can not find a LLCC at this time. There is a definite mid-level, albeit a very broad circulation. With conditions improving as we type a TD within 36 hours would not be a surprise. I haven't looked at conditions past right now really, but if/when a TC forms from this I would expect intial motion to be per NHC's 5:30(WNW) and then as a trough, if it gets close enough, approaches from the W a turn back to the N and NE and across the FL Peninsula somewhere(yes I know I am chicken for not being more precise! ). As usual the speed and strength of the approaching trough and the speed and strength of the developing TC are all important here as the correlation between the two will directly affect the steering of this system, should it develop. At this point I do not see a W GOM threat unless it totally misses the trough and can survive a trip across the Yuc.

not thinking a panhandle storm at this time?

Not yet at least. As I said the timing of each component is everything this time of year. If that trough comes in SLOWER than currently apparently anticipated then it could become a panhandle threat.

great analysis as always vb