Reasons for no Cat 5's on Texas coast?

[Stormtrack]

I ran across this explanation for why Texas has never had a Cat 5 hurricane as an aside to a discussion of the suitability of Brazoria County's pump and levee system to deal with major hurricanes. From thefacts.com:

"It might be of interest to the public that there is a scientific basis for the Texas Gulf Coast not having any Category 5 storm to strike it.
Experts in the field of hurricane modeling identify these scientific reasons. One of the most important is distance between the very warm loop current at the entrances to the Gulf from the Caribbean, Florida Straits and north from the Bay of Compeche, and the second being that the storm would be traveling over cooler water as it entered the western Gulf. This is a significantly different condition than a storm, like Katrina, heading across the warmest part of the Gulf as it enters the Gulf through the Florida Straits or across the Florida peninsula and then going directly to the north to the Gulf Coast between the mouth of the Mississippi River and the Panhandle of Florida."

BTW, does anybody know if Biloxi has a levee system?
http://www.thefacts.com/story.lasso?ewcd=103b4477693d6db6

[weatherwoman]

has north carolina ever been hit by a cat 5? I live here but dont know that we have

[Blown Away]

I think there are only 3 recorded Cat 5 landfalls:
1935 Upper Keys
Camille
Andrew

[Huckster]

The 1886 hurricane came as close as possible to being a cat. 5 when it hit Texas at 135 kts and 925 mb. I wouldn't say it's impossible for a cat. 5 to hit Texas, but the chances are probably not as high as they are for LA or MS. Katrina seems to have sucked in some dry air before landfall, at least that's how it looked to me; maybe that happened because it was so large and so much of the circulation moved over land before the center did. Perhaps a smaller storm of similar intensity would have an a better chance of making landfall as a cat. 5. Same thing for Texas. Allen was approaching as a cat. 5 but due to size and slow movement (I think), weakened due to dry air.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

And anyone who lived through that will tell you there wasn't a whole lot of difference between a 4 and a 5.

[Aslkahuna]

It's very rare for a Cat 5 intensity storm to make landfall as such ANYWHERE in the World as the very act of approaching land will result in the interaction with the landmass causing weakening of the storm. The most likely types of storms to make landfall as 5's would be more compact storms preferably in a relatively fast forward motion and in an intensification cycle as they did so. Even a large island like Luzon or Taiwan can kick the stuffings out of a storm as they approach due to the terrain. Small islands like Guam are more likely to get hit by a 5 storm though the description of STY Karen which hit Guam in 1962 and which is still Guam's worse typhoon hit indicates that it was not a Cat 5 intensity hit. Another thing to note, it's also rare for TX to get a hit much west of the Galveston area after mid September. This relates to the pattern changes involved with the ending of the monsoon over the SW US.

Steve

[m_ru]

no Biloxi doesn't have a levee system...it is all above sea level.

[THead]

I think there are only 3 recorded Cat 5 landfalls:
1935 Upper Keys
Camille
Andrew

I know Camille and Andrew were pretty fast movers too, in forward speed. Not sure about the Keys cane.

[NCHurricane]

has north carolina ever been hit by a cat 5? I live here but dont know that we have

No, NC has never (thank God) been hit by a Cat 5. Hazel was as close as we got. Max winds around 110-115KT at landfall.



Although in the book, "North Carolina's Hurricane History" storm #2 of 1879 was estimated to have wind gusts of over 160MPH. Unisys has it listed as 100KT max sustained winds.



Chuck
http://www.nchurricane.com

[Aslkahuna]

Overland, you can get 160 kt wind gusts with a 100kt storm.

Steve

[Air Force Met]

And the cool thing now is: we are pretty much closed for Business until '06 along the Texas Coast. Not saying it "Can't" happen...but the chances of a hurricane along our coast now is falling rapidly by the day.

Yeah!

[Three Blind Mice]

Big difference on HAZEL was her forward speed. She hit moving N at about 30MPH!!! Did Incredible damage because of that forward speed.

[NCHurricane]

Big difference on HAZEL was her forward speed. She hit moving N at about 30MPH!!! Did Incredible damage because of that forward speed.

Yep, that's why she was so bad - so far inland, even in Canada.

Edit: Sorry for hi-jacking the post.

Chuck
http://www.nchurricane.com

[vbhoutex]

And the cool thing now is: we are pretty much closed for Business until '06 along the Texas Coast. Not saying it "Can't" happen...but the chances of a hurricane along our coast now is falling rapidly by the day.

Yeah!

I just hope it holds!!!!!

[Stormtrack]

Interesting discussion of loop current on wikipedia. I'm learning a lot this season.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loop_Current

[quandary]

With only 3 Cat 5 hurricanes to ever have hit the United States, it seems reasonable that one 2 states would have been affected by them (FL Keys '35 and Andrew both hit Florida. Camille hit Mississippi.) So no other states, Louisiana, Texas, Alabama, Georgia, North and South Carolina and Virginia have been affected by a Cat 5. However, the Texas coast isn't immune since the Indianola Hurricane (or was it another one) hit with a pressure of 924 and winds of 155 mph. Anita hit Mexico as a Cat 5.