98L Invest Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[MortisFL]

Jamaica getting hammered with rain

[ronjon]

12Z Euro brings the system to the Yuc Straits in 168 hrs as a hurricane or stong tropical storm. Other globals such as NOGAPS and UKMET drift it slowly west toward the Yuc Pen. So far, the global models show the Bermuda Ridge re-establishing a summer-like position in 4-5 days with no troughs intruding into the SE US. I dont expect a northerly turn anytime soon so it should intensify into a hurricane with time. The most critical timing will be in the 5-7 day out period with this storm likely to be in the western Caribbean, Yuc Straits, or southern GOM. Any trough digging toward the Gulf Coast would then turn it N and then NE. Odds are this time of year we would see a trough by 7 days, although this has been a strange year with the Bermuda High being exceptionally strong over the SE.




http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[southerngale]

At this point I do not see a W GOM threat unless it totally misses the trough and can survive a trip across the Yuc.

Good! Although that's to be expected this late in the season. Some people are still trying to get basic services and it's a mess around here...just an invest way out there turns my stomach a little.

Bring on a cold front - it's too hot here!

[vaffie]

I never thought I'd be posting to Storm2K in mid-October--I pretty much figured that there was nothing much to worry about in the western Gulf after the "big cold front" came through a couple weeks ago. But the weather pattern is not a normal one this year. The High over the south and Bermuda is still very strong, and it's forcing all the cold fronts to the northeast, where they just rain themselves out. The forecast for the next week also doesn't have any big fronts reaching the south--see for instance the Florida forecast discussions, which describe a high building over Florida and a front that tries but won't make it. This would keep this Low/TD moving W, WNW or NW. I think the globals may be right on this one reaching the Yucatan/Y. channel. I still can't envision it ever reaching the western Gulf at this time of year though, but stranger things have happened. And if this does take place, the Central Gulf is by no means out of the woods either. Climatologically speaking, Florida is likely, but this year, areas west of Florida are at much higher risk than in an average year. I will check back in a couple days to see what has happened with 98 and what you all think about it at that point. I am not ruling it out for Texas yet either, but I would be really surprised.

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/fl/discussion.html

[Brent]

Bring on a cold front - it's too hot here!

I hear you... there will be a dry one coming through here this weekend and we cool off to near 50/80(which is still a little above normal) and then warms back up. I'm sick of this. Bring on the frost.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Its even been too warm here in Pennsylvania. Our normal peak for fall colors is October 12th. Well because of our abnormally warm and wet September which has continued through the beginning of October (although it is beginning to calm down a bit)....it has delayed the colors by quite a bit.

[x-y-no]

Man ... don't like the look of the 12Z European at all. It's way more bullish on development than the earlier runs. Not to mention if it's right, Jamaica is going to have a huge rain even for three or four days running.


7 day ECMWF:

[cycloneye]

[Scorpion]

If the Euro track was right though Florida wouldn't be threatened.

[x-y-no]

If the Euro track was right though Florida wouldn't be threatened.

Well, I don't know ... where will it have it headed after 7 days? I don't think the panhandle, or even the central peninsula are totally clear in that scenario. Slow moving system ... weak steering throughout the period.

[cycloneye]

[img]http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/04Camaguey/Maximos(Animacion).gif[/img]

Radar from Eastern Cuba.But it not shows too much as Jamaica does not have a radar as I haved looked but not found any from there.

HURAKAN este Radar es de Camaguey.Tu puedes conseguir otros radares de Cuba para cuando el systema se mueva mas hacia el oeste?

HURAKAN this radar is from Camaguey.If you have more radars from Cuba post them as the system moves more west and be on the range of them.

[CHRISTY]

what direction is it moving in that image??

[x-y-no]

what direction is it moving in that image??

It's pretty much not moving anywhere right now, and slowly at best over the next few days.

[cycloneye]

A 1005 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE ISLAND OF JAMAICA NEAR
18N77W...ATTACHED TO A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM
NICARAGUA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE LOW AND TROUGH HAVE BEGUN
TO SEPARATE THEMSELVES FROM THE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE W ATLC
WATERS AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING NEAR THE LOW
CENTER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER JAMAICA EXTENDING EWD ALONG THE S COAST OF
HISPANIOLA...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 73W-79W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IS OVER
HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 68W-73W. AN AMSU-B PASS AT 1931
UTC INDICATED THAT RAIN RATES JUST OFFSHORE FROM KINGSTON
JAMAICA WERE NEAR 0.8"/HOUR SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF JAMAICA WITH A
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE LOW HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS
ESPECIALLY IF THE CENTER MOVES AND REMAINS OVER WATER...AND THE
DEEP CONVECTION IS ABLE TO PERSIST.

8 PM Special Feature Discussion.

[CHRISTY]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That is a strong area of low pressure 1005 millibars...Also the upper high is fairly strong over it. Watch it bomb when it moves back over water! COME ON WILMA!!!

[Thunder44]

Jamaica does have radar, but they don't have any images avaiable on their weather site:

http://www.metservice.gov.jm/radarpage.asp

Also there are two radars sites along the SE coast of Cuba that we can't get any images from either now.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Fred knocks on the locked front door! Wilma!!!!!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

All I went is it to get named. After that I could care less. Then bring on Alpha.

[floridahurricaneguy]

Could Florida potentially be under the gun? Specifically west coast?

Matt