When will 98L be classified as a TD?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Oct 14, 2005 6:16 pm

At saturday at 5 AM is my vote.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #2 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Oct 14, 2005 6:19 pm

The LLC is right on the coast of southwest Jamica. I think its very very close to being a tropical depression now. COME WILMA Blow 1933 away!

x-y-no · #3 Postby **x-y-no** » Fri Oct 14, 2005 6:40 pm

I went for 11AM tomorrow, but 5AM wouldn't surprise me at all.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #4 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Oct 14, 2005 6:50 pm

A LLC is quickly becoming organizing just off shore. I think its right on the line.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #5 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Oct 14, 2005 7:00 pm

Darn it it is just inland Jamica. Tomarrow it will likely be back over. 1005 millibars. Thats a low pressure...I expect quick development from this one.

Website · #6 Postby **Brent** » Fri Oct 14, 2005 7:02 pm

11am(although there may be a Special Statement before that)... and it sucks since I'll be gone tomorrow. :roll:

I doubt they'll upgrade at 5am since it'll be dark, unless they get a ship report or something.

WindRunner · #7 Postby **WindRunner** » Fri Oct 14, 2005 7:07 pm

Brent wrote:11am(although there may be a Special Statement before that)... and it sucks since I'll be gone tomorrow.

Exactly. Though I think there is a slim chance that they will wait for the recon to come back tomorrow before upgrading.

wzrgirl1 · #8 Postby **wzrgirl1** » Fri Oct 14, 2005 7:08 pm

5 p.m. on Saturday

Website · #9 Postby **Brent** » Fri Oct 14, 2005 7:26 pm

WindRunner wrote:
Brent wrote:11am(although there may be a Special Statement before that)... and it sucks since I'll be gone tomorrow.

Exactly. Though I think there is a slim chance that they will wait for the recon to come back tomorrow before upgrading.

Yeah that's possible, but not likely unless it becomes less organized tonight.

#10 Postby **EDR1222** » Fri Oct 14, 2005 7:47 pm

By 11 am tomorrow is my guess. It looks pretty good on Satellite this evening.

Nimbus · #11 Postby **Nimbus** » Fri Oct 14, 2005 8:15 pm

Looks like some pretty good inflow at the surface judging from the buoys to the east.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

and west.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

The low pressure area does look a little broad for rapid development.
Maybe they will wait for recon to get a more precise fix tomorrow?

texasweatherwatcher · #12 Postby **texasweatherwatcher** » Fri Oct 14, 2005 9:12 pm

I think that it'll strenghten 11 AM Saturday. By all means future Wilma, help to break the record, but please remain non-deadly.

#13 Postby **Windtalker1** » Fri Oct 14, 2005 10:19 pm

With those COLD cloud tops, I expect a Depression by 5am and a Tropical Storm by 5pm...This suckers going to Bomb and Bomb Big! :blowup:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#14 Postby **Lowpressure** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 6:26 am

I say 5pm Saturday gives recon time to get there and vortex gets out.

#15 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:31 am

5 pm, like always when I have to work :roll:

#16 Postby **Buck** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 8:38 am

5PM today.

#17 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 4:21 pm

Ok the majority won the poll.

Congrats to those who voted 5 Pm Saturday but no prize.

chadtm80 · #18 Postby **chadtm80** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 4:22 pm

Im going to say 5pm Today :lol:

#19 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 4:23 pm

chadtm80 wrote:Im going to say 5pm Today

tornadochaser86 · #20 Postby **tornadochaser86** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 4:24 pm

were so close wilma finish the job tie the 1933 record