98L Invest Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[krysof]

If it moves slowly, then any front can pick it up

[MiamiensisWx]

The SHIP model is currently initializing the system at 25KT; also, since it is getting very well organized, does this mean that we might have a depression at the 11PM update tonight? We will see...

[jkt21787]

I said I would like a TS across FL, never said it would happen. I was being cautious 12 hours ago, before the GFDL run. Now I am expecting a major. And the models are clustered around a C America hit.

This was your quote...
"I doubt this will form into anything more than a TS. Just another name down."
Not saying you'd wish or you'd want or you'd like, pretty much a solid opinion of yours at the time.

Not sure how one run of the GFDL, which should never be taken seriously especially this early, could change that opinion greatly.

[Brent]

The SHIP model is currently initializing the system at 25KT; also, since it is getting very well organized, does this mean that we might have a depression at the 11PM update tonight? We will see...

Nope... TWO is already out.

They left the "later tonight" wording in though... so it's reasonable it could be upgraded BEFORE 5am.

[MiamiensisWx]

This was your quote...
"I doubt this will form into anything more than a TS. Just another name down."
Not saying you'd wish or you'd want or you'd like, pretty much a solid opinion of yours at the time.

Not sure how one run of the GFDL, which should never be taken seriously especially this early, could change that opinion greatly.

True... it is early. However, the GFDL was one of the few models that initialized Katrina as strong as it did (at 908 millibars) and Katrina actually had a lower pressure than that. We will see how this now plays out...

[krysof]

The SHIP model is currently initializing the system at 25KT; also, since it is getting very well organized, does this mean that we might have a depression at the 11PM update tonight? We will see...

Nope... TWO is already out.

They left the "later tonight" wording in though... so it's reasonable it could be upgraded BEFORE 5am.

it will most likely be a TD at 5 am tomorrow now, did you see the current cold cloud tops that are just exploding right now, its quickly organizing and it could already be a TD, recon has to check it out to determine its exact strength

[Brent]

it will most likely be a TD at 5 am tomorrow now, did you see the current cold cloud tops that are just exploding right now, its quickly organizing and it could already be a TD, recon has to check it out to determine its exact strength

...and EAST of Jamaica. Could have major implications on the track.

[MiamiensisWx]

It might be a tropical depression right now; however, even if it isn't, it is likely very, very close.

[CHRISTY]

hey brent can you please explain whats your thinking on this center being more to the east!

[whereverwx]

I wonder if the dry air will kill it.

doesn't look like it right now

It’s just amazing how fast things change within a short while. It appears that she is now winning the dry air.

She’s a fighter.
She's a lady. Whoa, whoa, whoa. She's a lady.

[MiamiensisWx]

Just my thoughts: I wonder that because the system will likely not be upgraded to tropical depression status by 11PM tonight, this might have big implications if it is already a depression now and, by the time they upgrade it, it may have (not saying it will be) become less organized.

Any thoughts on that?

[jkt21787]

True... it is early. However, the GFDL was one of the few models that initialized Katrina as strong as it did (at 908 millibars) and Katrina actually had a lower pressure than that. We will see how this now plays out...

Yes, Yes, this is very true. It also had Katrina as a cat 4 into the Keys, so there is a equally horrible run for every fabolous run out there, which is why I give the GFDL much skepticism this early on.

HOWEVER, do not get me wrong, one of the things I've harped on all season was the lack of activity in the Caribbean, and the fact that it would be a breeding ground for any system that would have the time and reason to develop there to become a formidable monster. And this one seems to be that system.

We have extremely favorable shear conditions, plenty warm SSTs and very high heat content to boot, so things are looking concerning in regards to this storm. One important thing to keep in mind (which has already been referenced and surely will be again) is that this is same general area and timeframe of another monster, Mitch.

I just want to see this actually develop a little more first before I even divulge deeply into intensity scenarios. The track forecast will be hard enough it appears...

[MiamiensisWx]

Yes, Yes, this is very true. It also had Katrina as a cat 4 into the Keys, so there is a equally horrible run for every fabolous run out there, which is why I give the GFDL much skepticism this early on.

HOWEVER, do not get me wrong, one of the things I've harped on all season was the lack of activity in the Caribbean, and the fact that it would be a breeding ground for any system that would have the time and reason to develop there to become a formidable monster. And this one seems to be that system.

We have extremely favorable shear conditions, plenty warm SSTs and very high heat content to boot, so things are looking concerning in regards to this storm. One important thing to keep in mind (which has already been referenced and surely will be again) is that this is same general area and timeframe of another monster, Mitch.

I just want to see this actually develop a little more first before I even divulge deeply into intensity scenarios. The track forecast will be hard enough it appears...

True... very good points you have. The system reminds me of Mitch, and a little of Michelle and other similar systems, as well...

[MiamiensisWx]

For those who are interested, check out the system on this site... looking good on imagery here as well...
http://152.80.49.216/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

[krysof]

Just my thoughts: I wonder that because the system will likely not be upgraded to tropical depression status by 11PM tonight, this might have big implications if it is already a depression now and, by the time they upgrade it, it may have (not saying it will be) become less organized.

Any thoughts on that?

not happening right now, and I highly doubt it will become less organized

[jkt21787]

For those who are interested, check out the system on this site... looking good on imagery here as well...
http://152.80.49.216/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Looking quite organized; unless something drastic happens in its organization (highly unlikely but you never know) we will probably have a depression within 12 to 18 hours...

[Anonymous]

I still think a major hurricane will occur before November 30

[Brent]

hey brent can you please explain whats your thinking on this center being more to the east!

I don't know yet... but if it forms farther east, I would tend to discount the "West into Central America" route... that would also increase the chance of a miss to the EAST for Florida(like Michelle 2001).

[MiamiensisWx]

not happening right now, and I highly doubt it will become less organized

True... still, I remember that was what lots of people were saying with at first-organized systems (e.g., TD 19) before they became very disorganized. Not saying that will happen, it's just that it reminded me...

I think a special upgrade to tropical depression status may be needed now or at least very soon.

[tracyswfla]

Interesting to note the main convection is now EAST of Jamaica... that could have major implications on the track.

What sort of implications?