98L Invest Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[sponger]

Nice post wx! What a difference 24 hours makes. Where is that hurricane season is dead thread! Looks like a TD by 5 am.

[THead]

Nice post wx! What a difference 24 hours makes. Where is that hurricane season is dead thread! Looks loke a TD by 5 am.

Ditto, great post, nice comparison, although scary. Wxmann is the master of graphics archiving!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Nice post wx! What a difference 24 hours makes. Where is that hurricane season is dead thread! Looks loke a TD by 5 am.

Ditto, great post, nice comparison, although scary. Wxmann is the master of graphics archiving!

Excellent post!

[wxmann_91]

Nice post wx! What a difference 24 hours makes. Where is that hurricane season is dead thread! Looks loke a TD by 5 am.

Ditto, great post, nice comparison, although scary. Wxmann is the master of graphics archiving!

Excellent post!

Thanks for the complements everybody. But I have to admit, the graphics from Mitch were found on other websites, I knew nothing about weather in 1998.

[HurricaneQueen]

Curiously, our local chief met while mentioning the system, does not see it as a SW Fl. threat. Generally I sit up and listen to what he has to say. Hope he is correct as I have BIG plans for the end of the week and after.

[sponger]

When was the last time Florida was hit from the South in a major in Oct? Sounds like a good question for Don Sutherland

[Huckster]

According to this, it was a cat. 3, but I am not sure if that is accurate. Doing some more research now...

Ok, according to the advisories issued on the storm just before it made landfall, winds were between 100 and 125 mph. According to the post-storm report, winds were around 90 mph on both coasts (seems strange that the storm wouldn't weaken at all), and the lowest pressure measured was only 28.88 inches, but on the west coast, at Juno Beach. So, it seems more likely that this storm hit as a cat. 2.

[artist]

interesting site with up to date winds, and other things -


http://www.windfinder.com/forecasts/wind_cent_am24.htm

[sponger]

Nice find Huckster. 40 freakin years. I just saw the gfdl and I am thinking I emptied, "the run like hell or power the generator," gas cans to early. I am not as concerned with intensity forecast as future track. This could be a hell of a way to tie 1933.

[CHRISTY]

[sponger]

Ouch! Looks like a solid td now. Who is on duty tonight at the NHC? I know you late owls will be watching. I am off to bed. St Augustine buoy is reporting 4.9 feet 12.8 second period ground swell. Surf tommorow! Good night all!

[Huckster]

If Isbell wasn't, then this one, King, was, according to the TPC...



60th most intense hurricane to hit the US....

King (SE FL) 1950 cat. 3 955 mb 28.20 in

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastint.shtml

[artist]

here is radar picking up the west side of Jamaica -

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/movie ... +mugm+base

[sponger]

imagine that track today! I woud love to ignore this until Mon. But thats not likely.

[vbhoutex]

Try Opal. The panhandle is part of Florida too. Opal's landfall was on October 4, 1995 I believe. Wasn't she a major at landfall?

[Ivanhater]

Try Opal. The panhandle is part of Florida too. Opal's landfall was on October 4, 1995 I believe. Wasn't she a major at landfall?

yes, came in as a weak 3 115 mph pressure 942

[Stratosphere747]

Aside from the Florida landfall discussions (which seems most likely considering the time of year however), is anyone on the western Gulf region troubled by the Euro model taking it westnorthwest right through the Yucatan Channel at a fairly fast clip on Day 5? It did a pretty good job with it's southernmost track with Stan in the same general area. I usually like the GFDL but it only just initiated it. Another thing that concerns me about all these southern track models that take it into the southern part of the Yucatan/Honduras is that they are all based on an initialization that has it going southwest right now--which is probably wrong. As a result, when the initialization is corrected to a westerly track, the models will all dutifully move from WSW to WNW in my opinion. Anyway, what do you guys think?

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

Vaffie...This is a part of the season when "climatetology" rules....

Scott

[artist]

according to this it seems there are 2 closed low pressure areas?

[sponger]

Try Opal. The panhandle is part of Florida too. Opal's landfall was on October 4, 1995 I believe. Wasn't she a major at landfall?

Vb I remember, I was going to FSU in Tallahassee. I waited until the 11pm and went to Publix for supplies. Recon had not been out for 18 hours and it was accelerating to the NE.

I actually surfed the pier in Pensacola for the first time 4 days before it hit. It was 2 feet overhead with a Carribean band playing on the beach. $ days later, the peir was apile of twigs. That pier stood for decades and I surfed it a few days before it was destroyed.

[SouthFloridawx]

14/2345 UTC 18.4N 77.6W OVERLAND 98 -- Atlantic Ocean