Tropical Cyclone 01S at Southern Indian Ocean

[cycloneye]

WTXS21 PGTW 140130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 140121ZOCT05//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.3S 84.7E TO 13.6S 79.4E WITH­
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS­
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
140000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.9S
84.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3S 85.5E
HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO A POSITION NEAR 8.9S 84.1E, APPROXIMATELY
685 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. THIS RELOCATION IS BASED ON THE LATEST
AVAILABLE SATELLITE INFORMATION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY REVEAL THAT A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS
PERSISTED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FOR 12 HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A NARROW AXIS OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE LLCC AND FAVORABLE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW OVER THE
ENTIRE CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1002 MB. DUE TO THE SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION, A NARROW ENVIRONMENT OF
LOW SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO GOOD.





It looks like a cyclone will form very soon from this.

[skysummit]

Holy Cow that looks good!

[fuzzyblow]

Is it rotating oposite than north ? ( sorry for my bad english, I'm french speaking )

[Swimdude]

Yup that thing looks pretty darn good.

[Aslkahuna]

It's a southern hemisphere system and they rotate in the opposite sense than cyclones in the northern hemisphere.

Steve

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

3.0/3.0 t...Whats keeping them from upgrading?

[HURAKAN]

TD according to LA REUNION.

[HURAKAN]

System / Système TROPICAL DEPRESSION / DEPRESSION TROPICALE

[fuzzyblow]

It's a southern hemisphere system and they rotate in the opposite sense than cyclones in the northern hemisphere.

Steve

Thanks Steve.
so if it's affect a city the left side of the storm will be the strongest, write ?

[HURAKAN]

It's a southern hemisphere system and they rotate in the opposite sense than cyclones in the northern hemisphere.

Steve

Thanks Steve.
so if it's affect a city the left side of the storm will be the strongest, write ?

Technically speaking, yes. But not all storms are the same. Remember Katrina southern part was the strongest one when it was moving over South Florida.

[fuzzyblow]

It's a southern hemisphere system and they rotate in the opposite sense than cyclones in the northern hemisphere.

Steve

Thanks Steve.
so if it's affect a city the left side of the storm will be the strongest, write ?

Technically speaking, yes. But not all storms are the same. Remember Katrina southern part was the strongest one when it was moving over South Florida.

Yes but the cyclone ( katrina )almost take shape over land.

[P.K.]

Upgraded as of 6am GMT:

PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

DEPRESSION TROPICALE 02-20052006
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 998 HPA.
POSITION LE 14 OCTOBRE A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 11.0 SUD / 81.9 EST
(ONZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-UN DEGRES NEUF EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2995 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 14 KM/H.

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140130ZOCT2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 11.0S 81.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 81.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 12.4S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 13.7S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 14.7S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.7S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 81.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 141200Z IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF
A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 140130ZOCT2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 140121). NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z AND
151500Z.//

[HURAKAN]

2005-2006
Alvin
Boloetse
Carina
Diwa
Elia
Farda
Guduza
Helio
Isabella
Jaone
Kundai
Lindsay
Marinda
Nadety
Otile
Pindile
Quincy
Rugare
Sebina
Timba
Usta
Velo
Wilby
Xanda
Yuri
Zoelle

Should TC 01s continue organizing, it's name will be the first in the list colored in blue, Alvin.

[P.K.]

The estimated pressure is down 1hPa.

Vendredi, 14 octobre 2005, 22h10 (UTC+4)

PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION
*****************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

DEPRESSION TROPICALE 02-20052006

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 997 HPA.
POSITION LE 14 OCTOBRE A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 11.4 SUD / 81.2 EST
(ONZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-UN DEGRES DEUX EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2905 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 14 KM/H.

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140130ZOCT2005//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 12.5S 80.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 80.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 13.9S 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 14.9S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.8S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.4S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 80.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND
160300Z.//

[P.K.]

Slight difference in the forecasts here from La Reunion:

12H: 2005/10/15 18 UTC: 14.2S/80.0E, MAX WIND=030KT .
24H: 2005/10/16 06 UTC: 14.6S/78.6E, MAX WIND=030KT .
36H: 2005/10/16 18 UTC: 14.9S/77.2E, MAX WIND=025KT .
48H: 2005/10/17 06 UTC: 15.2S/75.7E, MAX WIND=025KT .
60H: 2005/10/17 18 UTC: 15.2S/74.0E DISSIPATING.
72H: 2005/10/18 06 UTC: 15.2S/72.2E DISSIPATING.

[HURAKAN]

Slight difference in the forecasts here from La Reunion:

12H: 2005/10/15 18 UTC: 14.2S/80.0E, MAX WIND=030KT .
24H: 2005/10/16 06 UTC: 14.6S/78.6E, MAX WIND=030KT .
36H: 2005/10/16 18 UTC: 14.9S/77.2E, MAX WIND=025KT .
48H: 2005/10/17 06 UTC: 15.2S/75.7E, MAX WIND=025KT .
60H: 2005/10/17 18 UTC: 15.2S/74.0E DISSIPATING.
72H: 2005/10/18 06 UTC: 15.2S/72.2E DISSIPATING.

Slight?!?! I would say, like the difference between day and night!

[HURAKAN]

15/10/2005 12:00 80.40 13.70 2.0 Perturbation tropicale 1001 30 kt, 55 km/h 42 kt, 78 km/h

La Reunion downgrades the system to a tropical disturbance.



WTXS31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 13.9S 80.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 80.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.3S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.6S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.8S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.0S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 80.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z
AND 161500Z.//


JTWC continues to intensify the system.



The system has a Holloween-ghost appearance!

[P.K.]

Slight?!?! I would say, like the difference between day and night!

Exactly As you say this is no longer a TD.