
98L Invest Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
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- cycloneye
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A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NEAR JAMAICA IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM HAITI AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS JAMAICA. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT IT HAS NOT YET BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AND INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...CUBA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR ITS PROGRESS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND HAITI. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS TENTATIVELY SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.
5:30 AM TWO.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM HAITI AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS JAMAICA. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT IT HAS NOT YET BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AND INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...CUBA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR ITS PROGRESS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND HAITI. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS TENTATIVELY SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.
5:30 AM TWO.
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- cycloneye
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- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 18.7N 75.9W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.10.2005 18.7N 75.9W WEAK
12UTC 15.10.2005 19.0N 77.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.10.2005 18.6N 79.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.10.2005 17.7N 79.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.10.2005 16.8N 79.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.10.2005 16.9N 78.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.10.2005 17.7N 79.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.10.2005 17.7N 80.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.10.2005 16.5N 81.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.10.2005 17.7N 81.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.10.2005 18.5N 83.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.10.2005 19.4N 84.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.10.2005 20.2N 85.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00z UKMET
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- cycloneye
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- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Nimbus wrote:Luis is this a shift to the right in track for the UKMET?
I don't mind if they let the recon pilots sleep in this morning. The longer we wait for this storm to develop the better the initialization will be.
Yep to the right at the end.
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- cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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SPECIAL FEATURE...
A NOT-WELL DEFINED SURFACE 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW IS
OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM 15.5N TO 20N
BETWEEN 74W IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 81W....FROM HAITI TO
CUBA TO JAMAICA. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...THROUGH THE 1005 MB LOW CENTER...TO EASTERN COASTAL
NICARAGUA...AND THROUGH NICARAGUA TO EASTERN EL SALVADOR.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IT HAS NOT YET BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THIS SYSTEM GRADUALLY IS BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AND RESIDENTS IN JAMAICA...CUBA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS CLOSELY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND HAITI. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS TENTATIVELY SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY IF NECESSARY.
8 AM EDT Special Feature Discussion.
A NOT-WELL DEFINED SURFACE 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW IS
OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM 15.5N TO 20N
BETWEEN 74W IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 81W....FROM HAITI TO
CUBA TO JAMAICA. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...THROUGH THE 1005 MB LOW CENTER...TO EASTERN COASTAL
NICARAGUA...AND THROUGH NICARAGUA TO EASTERN EL SALVADOR.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IT HAS NOT YET BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THIS SYSTEM GRADUALLY IS BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AND RESIDENTS IN JAMAICA...CUBA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS CLOSELY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND HAITI. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS TENTATIVELY SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY IF NECESSARY.
8 AM EDT Special Feature Discussion.
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- Lowpressure
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- Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146228
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Lowpressure wrote:I agree Floydbuster, looks like a low shear warm water path probably a Florida panhandle or Alabama event. What are they missing for a TD? 1005 is plenty low, must be that elusive west wind.
They may be waiting for recon later today.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146228
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 98L
INITIAL TIME 6Z OCT 15
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 17.7 77.4 270./ 2.9
6 17.7 77.5 307./ .9
12 18.0 78.1 291./ 6.4
18 18.3 78.7 300./ 6.0
24 18.4 79.3 286./ 5.8
30 18.5 79.6 278./ 2.8
36 18.5 79.9 275./ 3.1
42 18.4 79.8 148./ 1.3
48 18.2 79.9 198./ 2.2
54 18.2 79.9 180./ .0
60 18.2 80.0 283./ 1.3
66 18.1 80.1 228./ 1.3
72 17.9 80.4 227./ 3.6
78 17.6 80.7 225./ 4.0
84 17.4 80.8 217./ 2.6
90 17.0 80.9 187./ 4.1
96 16.8 81.0 210./ 1.6
102 16.8 81.1 261./ 1.2
108 16.9 81.1 342./ 1.3
114 17.0 81.1 27./ .9
120 17.1 81.2 338./ 1.6
126 17.8 81.5 334./ 7.4
6z GFDL.
NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 98L
INITIAL TIME 6Z OCT 15
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 17.7 77.4 270./ 2.9
6 17.7 77.5 307./ .9
12 18.0 78.1 291./ 6.4
18 18.3 78.7 300./ 6.0
24 18.4 79.3 286./ 5.8
30 18.5 79.6 278./ 2.8
36 18.5 79.9 275./ 3.1
42 18.4 79.8 148./ 1.3
48 18.2 79.9 198./ 2.2
54 18.2 79.9 180./ .0
60 18.2 80.0 283./ 1.3
66 18.1 80.1 228./ 1.3
72 17.9 80.4 227./ 3.6
78 17.6 80.7 225./ 4.0
84 17.4 80.8 217./ 2.6
90 17.0 80.9 187./ 4.1
96 16.8 81.0 210./ 1.6
102 16.8 81.1 261./ 1.2
108 16.9 81.1 342./ 1.3
114 17.0 81.1 27./ .9
120 17.1 81.2 338./ 1.6
126 17.8 81.5 334./ 7.4
6z GFDL.
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The Euro model run brings it into the East Central Gulf by Oct. 21st.
Robert
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2004083000!!!step/

Robert

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2004083000!!!step/
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cycloneye wrote:ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 98L
INITIAL TIME 6Z OCT 15
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 17.7 77.4 270./ 2.9
6 17.7 77.5 307./ .9
12 18.0 78.1 291./ 6.4
18 18.3 78.7 300./ 6.0
24 18.4 79.3 286./ 5.8
30 18.5 79.6 278./ 2.8
36 18.5 79.9 275./ 3.1
42 18.4 79.8 148./ 1.3
48 18.2 79.9 198./ 2.2
54 18.2 79.9 180./ .0
60 18.2 80.0 283./ 1.3
66 18.1 80.1 228./ 1.3
72 17.9 80.4 227./ 3.6
78 17.6 80.7 225./ 4.0
84 17.4 80.8 217./ 2.6
90 17.0 80.9 187./ 4.1
96 16.8 81.0 210./ 1.6
102 16.8 81.1 261./ 1.2
108 16.9 81.1 342./ 1.3
114 17.0 81.1 27./ .9
120 17.1 81.2 338./ 1.6
126 17.8 81.5 334./ 7.4
6z GFDL.
Thanks Cycloneye for the 6z GFDL run. Looks like this "might " head into the East Gulf later this week. Just have to wait and see - we have alot of time to watch this. Thanks
Robert

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