TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

x-y-no · #41 Postby **x-y-no** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:24 pm

18Z GFS at 138 hours ... slightly deeper, crossing western tip of Cuba.

EDIT: Keep in mind, GFS is a global, mot a tropical model. It doesn't do mesoscale convection at all, rather depending on parameterization. That means you can't rely on it getting intensity even remotely right.

ChaserUK · #42 Postby **ChaserUK** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:27 pm

...am concerned for you guys.

Hold in there. Its a long way out but after the genesis we have seen this year - prepare now.

x-y-no · #43 Postby **x-y-no** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:33 pm

18Z GFS @ 150 hours - slowly NNE towards SFL.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #44 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:34 pm

x-y-no wrote:18Z GFS @ 150 hours - slowly NNE towards SFL.

GFS is a Hurricane Charley Deja Vu...

#45 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:35 pm

x-y-no wrote:18Z GFS @ 150 hours - slowly NNE towards SFL.

wow you gotta graphic for that? im sorry i know ur working hard on it, but I get greedy sometimes

<RICKY>

Website · #46 Postby **Brent** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:38 pm

168 hours!!! (Next Saturday Afternoon)

:shocked!:

x-y-no · #47 Postby **x-y-no** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:39 pm

168 to 174 hours - crossing SFL:

artist · #48 Postby **artist** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:39 pm

weather emperor - use this link and you will find the model runs -

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewalltropatl.html

Website · #49 Postby **Brent** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:39 pm

That looks like an Irene-type track... only much stronger.

#50 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:39 pm

week away, i dont think im going ou on a limb by saying it WILL change again and again

ChaserUK · #51 Postby **ChaserUK** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:41 pm

I think we will have a major before then to be honest. 5 days max. Not sure GFDL has the speed and evolution spot on.

x-y-no · #52 Postby **x-y-no** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:42 pm

ivanhater wrote:week away, i dont think im going ou on a limb by saying it WILL change again and again

Of course.

I really do think this is a Florida peninsula threat, though. But that could be SFL, or substantially further north.

Website · #53 Postby **Brent** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:44 pm

x-y-no wrote:
ivanhater wrote:week away, i dont think im going ou on a limb by saying it WILL change again and again

Of course.

I really do think this is a Florida peninsula threat, though. But that could be SFL, or substantially further north.

Yeah... climatology favors that.

#54 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:44 pm

x-y-no wrote:
ivanhater wrote:week away, i dont think im going ou on a limb by saying it WILL change again and again

Of course.

I really do think this is a Florida peninsula threat, though. But that could be SFL, or substantially further north.

i agree, i think this is an eastern gulf threat, not sure yet if panhandle or peninsula threat, its REALLY early on, but its fun to guess right now

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #55 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:45 pm

I don't think it will become a tropical storm intill tomorrow afternoon. I don't understand why this is not strengthing.

#56 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:45 pm

x-y-no wrote:168 to 174 hours - crossing SFL:

Is that showing a major cane hit on Miami... from the SOUTHWEST????

Scorpion · #57 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:45 pm

ivanhater wrote:
x-y-no wrote:
ivanhater wrote:week away, i dont think im going ou on a limb by saying it WILL change again and again

Of course.

I really do think this is a Florida peninsula threat, though. But that could be SFL, or substantially further north.

i agree, i think this is an eastern gulf threat, not sure yet if panhandle or peninsula threat, its REALLY early on, but its fun to guess right now

No offense but it seems you have a bias for every storm to be a Panhandle threat. This looks either a Central America Yucatan threat or a Cuba/S FL threat. It all depends on the trough.

#58 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:47 pm

Scorpion wrote:
ivanhater wrote:
x-y-no wrote:
ivanhater wrote:week away, i dont think im going ou on a limb by saying it WILL change again and again

Of course.

I really do think this is a Florida peninsula threat, though. But that could be SFL, or substantially further north.

i agree, i think this is an eastern gulf threat, not sure yet if panhandle or peninsula threat, its REALLY early on, but its fun to guess right now

No offense but it seems you have a bias for every storm to be a Panhandle threat. This looks either a Central America Yucatan threat or a Cuba/S FL threat. It all depends on the trough.

hmmm, did i say this is coming for the panhandle? i guess xyno has a south florida bias, im pretty sure i said panhandle or peninsula....i guess i have a florida bias :wink:

#59 Postby **baygirl_1** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:48 pm

ivanhater wrote:
x-y-no wrote:108 hours - deepening it some now. Moving slowly NNW.

i hope it starts to turn it away from me

Ditto! We still have our chimney sitting on the roof above our master bath and the hole covered by plywood and tar paper! If anything above a thundershower comes this way they're going to have to put me on tranquilizers! The only roofers who've come have given us totally ourtageous estimates and we're on 3 lists for estimates right now. I don't want to wish a storm on anyone, but please not here!

-Baygirl, who's watching very closely now...

x-y-no · #60 Postby **x-y-no** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:49 pm

LAwxrgal wrote:

Is that showing a major cane hit on Miami... from the SOUTHWEST????

Well, it's showing a hurricane hitting Miami from the SW. Doesn't show a major, but as I said earlier the GFS doesn't model mesoscale cyclone dynamics at all so intensity is generally way off.

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