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DESTRUCTION5
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#201 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Oct 15, 2005 10:28 pm

Brent wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Brent wrote:Looking like it'll cross west of that... closer to Havana or even the tip. I wouldn't expect much if any weakening. Charley anyone???


I say a bit Weaker and I don't think it will exit in Daytona Brent...


I meant Charley in reference to Cuba. Remember??? Didn't weaken at all.

We're getting way ahead of ourselves though... it's not even forecast to be across Cuba in 5 days... :lol:


Agree on both ends...We just seen this to many times..
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krysof

#202 Postby krysof » Sat Oct 15, 2005 10:29 pm

Brent wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Brent wrote:Looking like it'll cross west of that... closer to Havana or even the tip. I wouldn't expect much if any weakening. Charley anyone???


I say a bit Weaker and I don't think it will exit in Daytona Brent...


I meant Charley in reference to Cuba. Remember??? Didn't weaken at all.

We're getting way ahead of ourselves though... it's not even forecast to be across Cuba in 5 days... :lol:


Charley also didn't exactly skirt the edge, it went through the thinest area of Cuba where there are no mountains
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CHRISTY

#203 Postby CHRISTY » Sat Oct 15, 2005 10:31 pm

ImageThe begin of a monster.....
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#204 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 15, 2005 10:32 pm

Nice flareup over the LLC.
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#205 Postby MGC » Sat Oct 15, 2005 10:34 pm

All signs point to the potential of an intense hurricane in the W Carb in a few days. I can't argue...warm water, low shear. We will have to wait and see if it happens. I am already wondering if the ridge over the GOM is going to retrograte as quickly as expected. The next couple of day would be a good time for a Gulfsteam mission. Western Cuba, Florida Keys and Florida west coast should keep an eye on this one......MGC
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StormFury

#206 Postby StormFury » Sat Oct 15, 2005 10:34 pm

What does the latest long term model guidance suggest? I've seen that the Euro takes it into South Florida earlier today...what about the other models and any updates from the Euro?
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#207 Postby johngaltfla » Sat Oct 15, 2005 10:35 pm

Noah wrote:so many people are saying eastern gulf, they talking west florida somewhere? Is this something to really gt concerned about here is sarasota? Im 75 miles south of tampa.. considered part of the bay area. Im getting nervous. :(


Well, I'm local to you so needless to say any October/November hurricane in that area has my full attention.

Especially this season. :eek:
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CHRISTY

#208 Postby CHRISTY » Sat Oct 15, 2005 10:38 pm

for some reason this storm reminds of hurricane irene as far as the future track is concern as of right now...but maybe the big difference about it is it may be much stronger!opinions?
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StormFury

#209 Postby StormFury » Sat Oct 15, 2005 10:42 pm

Gosh! this site is so addictive, I keep pressing refresh every 3 seconds. I am now committing myself to sleep and will take a look tomorrow.

I think this will be a very interesting scenario for Florida, especially the peninsula and keys.
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#210 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Oct 15, 2005 10:42 pm

CHRISTY wrote:ImageThe begin of a monster.....


It is definitely orgainizing.
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#211 Postby dhweather » Sat Oct 15, 2005 10:46 pm

It's scary to think what this will look ike in 12-24 hours. It's developing
nicely, high oceanic heat, no shear, it's got nearly ideal conditions.
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#212 Postby jkt21787 » Sat Oct 15, 2005 10:47 pm

fasterdisaster wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:ImageThe begin of a monster.....


It is definitely orgainizing.

Those images ended at 2115z, 5:15 PM EDT. Be sure to look at the current floater...
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#213 Postby artist » Sat Oct 15, 2005 10:48 pm

- Updates from the Islands -
- - Jamaica - -
| discussions | reports | pleas for help | QHWRN | guide | climatology | archive |


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- TD #24
From: "Andre Marriott-Blake" <sean134 at msn.com>
Date: Sun, 16 Oct 2005 01:36:56 +0000

Hi everyone,
It has been rainy Cats and Dog here in Jamaica for the past couple of days.This has caused Flash Flood Warnings to be posted for The entire island. Thogh t.d 24 is south west of us, it has caused numerouse roads to be impassable,numerous rivers to overflow their banks and many communites flooded. Td 24 has claimed its first life here in Kingston as a man was washed away in his car in Barbican.The current projection is for it to SLOWLY move away from the island,which means that more rain is expected but hopefully no more deaths.Lets just pray that this one fizzles out before it nears Cayman, Cuba or any other land mass.My prayers are with you all,Keep safe.

Andre


from http://www.stormcarib.com
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#214 Postby THead » Sat Oct 15, 2005 10:49 pm

dhweather wrote:It's scary to think what this will look ike in 12-24 hours. It's developing
nicely, high oceanic heat, no shear, it's got nearly ideal conditions.


We knew it was coming, talked about it to death. She's forming in the one area we knew was possible this time of year, to grow a strong TC. Mother nature really knows what she's doing, eh? And the way this season has gone, well lets just wait and see how strong she gets.
:wink:
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fasterdisaster
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#215 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Oct 15, 2005 10:52 pm

jkt21787 wrote:
fasterdisaster wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:ImageThe begin of a monster.....


It is definitely orgainizing.

Those images ended at 2115z, 5:15 PM EDT. Be sure to look at the current floater...


Did that. Still orgaizing.
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Derek Ortt

#216 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Oct 15, 2005 10:53 pm

not to be nit picky, but Charley did weaken over Cuba, from 105KT to 95KT
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#217 Postby THead » Sat Oct 15, 2005 10:55 pm

I'm not naming names, but must people quote pictures all the time, when they're replying with just a few words? I mean c'mon, there's no reason to have the same pic posted 5 times in quoted replies.
:roll:
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#218 Postby artist » Sat Oct 15, 2005 10:58 pm

did anyone notice that the first death has been reported???
really sad....
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#219 Postby jkt21787 » Sat Oct 15, 2005 10:58 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:not to be nit picky, but Charley did weaken over Cuba, from 105KT to 95KT

This is true. Many people of course remember the initial NHC advisories which didn't have it as a cat 3 until leaving Cuba and seemingly remaining at a nearly steady state during its passage, but in fact the NHC final report did show it becoming 105 kts at Cuban landfall, and emerging at 95kts.
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fasterdisaster
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#220 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Oct 15, 2005 10:58 pm

THead wrote:I'm not naming names, but must people quote pictures all the time, when they're replying with just a few words? I mean c'mon, there's no reason to have the same pic posted 5 times in quoted replies.
:roll:


I'm sorry if that annoys you. :(
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