TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[LAwxrgal]

Looks like all the models now (even the BAMs) want to turn it north at some point... but why?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looks like all the models now (even the BAMs) want to turn it north at some point... but why?

Weakness in the ridge
Gonna be a rough week....

[AZS]

[hicksta]

Looks like all the models now (even the BAMs) want to turn it north at some point... but why?

Weakness in the ridge
Gonna be a rough week....

The gamble we take living on the water, but its so nice.

[cjrciadt]

Heat Pontential excellent in the Channel, but much lower in the GOM.

[Opal storm]

Looks like all the models now (even the BAMs) want to turn it north at some point... but why?

Yeah,a lot farther north into the Gulf than I expected this to go.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like all the models now (even the BAMs) want to turn it north at some point... but why?

Weakness in the ridge
Gonna be a rough week....

Specially when we remember the time of the year and the worse storm for Tampa.

[Weatherfreak14]

I think that is the track most likely it will take IMO.

[jlauderdal]

Looks like all the models now (even the BAMs) want to turn it north at some point... but why?

read the nhc discos, two weaknesses on the way

[DESTRUCTION5]

I, at this point am not going to estimate a landfall point 6 or 7 days out. That would be irresponsible of me to do so. But, with that said West central and SW Florida should be paying VERY close attention to it.

Just wondering - when is it "responsible" to forecast landfall? Does something magical happen between the current 5-day forecast and day 6 that makes a 6-day forecast irresponsible? I see nothing wrong with projecting landfall 6, 7, or 10 days out, as long as the degree of uncertainty in that exact landfall point is understood.

That said, Tampa-south better watch out Friday night! The one thing that could save south Florida is if Wilma does a "Michelle". That is, it could move more slowly than forecast initially and eventually turn more sharply, missing Florida to the south.

As a meteorologist on TV, my forecast and what I say impacts many people. 6 or 7 days out telling people that it will hit or will not, is in fact irresponsible on my part. It is not a general forecasting irresponsibility. But, for the case of viewers potentially freaking out or relaxing too much (depending on the forecast) I will not make the specific call just yet. That is how I prefer to operate. The big problem is that that degree of uncertainty, although repeated often, is not understood among the general viewer.

Your Josh Linker...Bay News 9 arent you...

[johngaltfla]

I, at this point am not going to estimate a landfall point 6 or 7 days out. That would be irresponsible of me to do so. But, with that said West central and SW Florida should be paying VERY close attention to it.

Just wondering - when is it "responsible" to forecast landfall? Does something magical happen between the current 5-day forecast and day 6 that makes a 6-day forecast irresponsible? I see nothing wrong with projecting landfall 6, 7, or 10 days out, as long as the degree of uncertainty in that exact landfall point is understood.

That said, Tampa-south better watch out Friday night! The one thing that could save south Florida is if Wilma does a "Michelle". That is, it could move more slowly than forecast initially and eventually turn more sharply, missing Florida to the south.

As a meteorologist on TV, my forecast and what I say impacts many people. 6 or 7 days out telling people that it will hit or will not, is in fact irresponsible on my part. It is not a general forecasting irresponsibility. But, for the case of viewers potentially freaking out or relaxing too much (depending on the forecast) I will not make the specific call just yet. That is how I prefer to operate. The big problem is that that degree of uncertainty, although repeated often, is not understood among the general viewer.

I'm not sure which TV met you are, but you're on the money. Both of the local mets I watched in this area this morning spoke clearly, plainly and precisely that we should just watch this storm for now because of the historical tracks of storms that form in this area.

Clearly by Monday night to Tuesday, we'll all have an idea where this storm is going and what we'll be dealing with. I appreciate the jobs our local mets have been doing because they have not been alarmist but for years have been trying to warn Bay area residents that a storm heading for this region would be disasterous.

The indication to me that we are not ready was spelled out watching the circus of meetings between Hillsborough County, Pinellas County and the City of Tampa trying to coordinate updated plans in the event of a major hurricane heading this way.

We're no better off down here in Sarasota or Manatee County I might add.

/rant off

[StormFury]

I've noticed a trend...which may be good news for South Florida...each new track advisory has been shifted more to the left. The forecast models are getting closer and closer to hinting at a Yucatan channel storm and then a North Florida landfall.

[hurricanedude]

North Florida
would not be good for me!

[WindRunner]

I've noticed a trend...which may be good news for South Florida...each new track advisory has been shifted more to the left. The forecast models are getting closer and closer to hinting at a Yucatan channel storm and then a North Florida landfall.

A Channel storm doesn't necessarily mean a N Florida landfall. In fact, it could make it worse for Central/South Florida, as it won't loose any intensity.

[curtadams]

I don't see how it could not be a TS at this point. Granted it looks more like a collection of tropical depressions at this point- with three areas of convection rotating around a center just SW of Jamaica. But satellite intensity says it's been getting stronger all night, and it was a respectable TD yesterday afternoon. Plus the SW convection area has been going all night, and the center convection area is right next to the LLC. One of those two storms is bound to have created an area of TS winds with its local wind added to the overall field.
It a big wind field, all right - the entirety of the lower-level cloud motion from the Yucatan to E of PR and from N of Cuba to the S American coast is already orbiting Wilma-to-be's center. Different from what most storms have looked like this year - usually the upper-level winds bow to the cyclone more distinctly than the lower-level.

[HurricaneQueen]

The trend to the west may be true in the long run but once the troughs move into the area it may very well take a sharp right (E-SE turn). I believe that is what is being "forecast" at this time. With all my heart, I hope it does not come into SW FL. and would love to see it turn sooner pass through the FL straights and go harmlessly out to sea. But my gut is telling me differently. I hope I am wrong!

Lynn

[cjrciadt]

t number at:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1001.0mb/ 43.0kt
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/odt/odt1.html
Will recon support this?

[floridahurricaneguy]

Trending a little more left could mean worse for Tampa. Becuase some say it looks south now but more left trend could make it higher it would pull it into tampa or just north of it.

Oct 1921? likely track! That would hit right where I lived.

Matt

[Brent]

t number at:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1001.0mb/ 43.0kt
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/odt/odt1.html
Will recon support this?

I think they will find Wilma... not sure it'll be 43 kt, but the 1001 mb sounds right.

[jkt21787]

t number at:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1001.0mb/ 43.0kt
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/odt/odt1.html
Will recon support this?

Recon may find a TS barely, but I doubt it finds anything 40kts or higher. I'm not convinced they will even find a TS though at all...