TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[johngaltfla]

t number at:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1001.0mb/ 43.0kt
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/odt/odt1.html
Will recon support this?

I think they will find Wilma... not sure it'll be 43 kt, but the 1001 mb sounds right.

I would not be suprised either. And I do hope we're not looking at a 1921 track.

[cjrciadt]

Now at:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.0mb/ 45.0kt
the winds speeds I think are to high, but pressure could be right.

[cycloneye]

NOUS42 KNHC 161400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SUN 16 OCT 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z OCT 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-141

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24
FLIGHT ONE
A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0324A CYCLONE
C. 17/1300Z
D. 17.3N 80.2W
E. 17/1700Z TO 17/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A.18/500Z
B.AFXXX042A CYCLONE
C.18/000Z
D.17.5N 80.8W
E.18/0400Z TO 18/0830Z
F.SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES.
POSSIBLE G-IV MISSION DEPARTING 18/1800Z.


Above are the next missions for soon to be Wilma.

By the way I like what I am seeing about no replies in the recon thread.

[HurricaneGirl]

Holy Crap!!

[hurricanefreak1988]

Oh man!!!! So close to history! The wait is killing me. Once TD Twenty-Four becomes Wilma, let the party begin. We will have done the unthinkable- gone through the entire list. I never, ever thought we'd do it. It always seemed so impossible. But now, it's really going to happen! It's a shame it had to be under these circumstances, with a potentially strong hurricane. For now, though, let the celebration begin once it's official.

[MiamiensisWx]

Holy Carp!!

Also, the NHC's intensity forecast has been raised to 95KT. Also, Derek Ortt takes it to 120KT by the time it reaches western Cuba in five days, he says.

[Derek Ortt]

I am not sure this will get to central Florida.

This may be a similar set-up to Michelle and Lili 1996, where we have a sharp turn to the east, as climo would dictate

[MiamiensisWx]

I am not sure this will get to central Florida.

This may be a similar set-up to Michelle and Lili 1996, where we have a sharp turn to the east, as climo would dictate

For now, I agree.

[hicksta]

i still think its going to become wilma, then just die into a td.

[Florida_TSR]

Derek please remember that......"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get" Just because past storms have taken certain tracks does not mean TD24/Wilma will follow. The speed of TD24/Wilma is going to be key.

[wzrgirl1]

I am not sure this will get to central Florida.

This may be a similar set-up to Michelle and Lili 1996, where we have a sharp turn to the east, as climo would dictate

didn't michelle and lili both miss the usa completely? Is that what you are saying or do you think it will go more north then those two storms thus turning sharply in say the southwest part of florida

[Ivanhater]

ok, folks.....what is this talk about models shifting left and north florida?

[johngaltfla]

NOUS42 KNHC 161400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SUN 16 OCT 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z OCT 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-141

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24
FLIGHT ONE
A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0324A CYCLONE
C. 17/1300Z
D. 17.3N 80.2W
E. 17/1700Z TO 17/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A.18/500Z
B.AFXXX042A CYCLONE
C.18/000Z
D.17.5N 80.8W
E.18/0400Z TO 18/0830Z
F.SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES.
POSSIBLE G-IV MISSION DEPARTING 18/1800Z.


Above are the next missions for soon to be Wilma.

By the way I like what I am seeing about no replies in the recon thread.

I've learned. I just like reading the uncluttered, uncommented data.

[jkt21787]

i still think its going to become wilma, then just die into a td.

I would be really wondering where that sort of thinking is coming from, there is not one single piece of evidence out there to back up that argument.

[Scorpion]

ok, folks.....what is this talk about models shifting left and north florida?

Actually, it is more likely a SW FL or Tampa event at most. The NHC says the models are underestimating the trough. Highly doubt it will get above Tampa.

[Brent]

i still think its going to become wilma, then just die into a td.

Okay...

[tracyswfla]

i still think its going to become wilma, then just die into a td.

Okay...

lol

[jkt21787]

i still think its going to become wilma, then just die into a td.

Okay...

I think he's just angry it isn't coming to Texas j/k

[Rainband]

I don't care where it goes as long as it's not here. Hope it misses all land and curves out to sea some how.

[WindRunner]

i still think its going to become wilma, then just die into a td.

Okay...

He keeps saying strange things like that today . . . it's getting a little annoying.