Tropical Depression 16-E at EPAC=Last Advisorie

[Brent]

The convection isn't "that" cold...

and while it may be more organized, TD 24's convection is colder.

[cycloneye]

604
WTPZ21 KNHC 160237
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162005
0300Z SUN OCT 16 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 102.2W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 102.2W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 102.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 11.0N 102.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 11.0N 103.4W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 10.9N 104.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 10.7N 104.8W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 10.3N 107.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 102.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB

[Brent]

Almost dead.

[fasterdisaster]

I didn't ever think it would survive, I don't know how, I just looked at it and said to myself that it would be one that never became a TS.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT OCT 15 2005

VISIBLE AND EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT A SMALL CIRCULATION
CENTER JUST BENEATH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF
DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN AT 25 KT...AS DOES
THE INITIAL INTENSITY. UPPER LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLIES CONTINUE TO
HAMPER DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE SHIPS
MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE MODERATE SHEAR WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A
WEAKENING TREND...BASED OFF OF THE SHIPS...WITH THE DEPRESSION
BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 270/3. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST A RELATIVELY WEAK
LOW/MID-LAYER EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
AFTERWARD...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD WEST
TO SOUTHWEST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE
FORWARD MOTION OF THE REMNANT LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY BUT WILL REFLECT A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION BEYOND 48
HOURS...AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE SHALLOW MEAN BAM.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 11.0N 102.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 11.0N 102.7W 25 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 11.0N 103.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 17/1200Z 10.9N 104.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 18/0000Z 10.7N 104.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 19/0000Z 10.3N 107.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

[fasterdisaster]

Still has one or two more advisories left in its life, but it is dying of Tropical Cancer.

Get it? Tropical Cancer? Tropic of Cancer?

*Listens to silence in audience*

Geez I'm such a geography nerd.

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 161436
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN OCT 16 2005

A 0819 UTC AMSU PASS INDICATED THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF TD-16E
WAS SOMEWHAT DISPLACED FROM THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS WAS
ALSO CONFIRMED BY THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY
WHICH SHOW THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS IS
INDICATIVE OF CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK NUMBERS ARE
2.0 FROM TAFB AND AFWA AND 2.5 FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AT 280/5...AND PERHAPS
EVEN FURTHER TO THE RIGHT THAN INDICATED HERE. A LARGE AND STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
REACH ITS MOST SOUTHERN EXTENT BY 24 HOURS THEN SLOWLY FILL
AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS
ALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
NORTHERN MEXICO TO SLOWLY BUILD/SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
TD-16E SHOULD ACT TO FORCE THE CYCLONE IN A GENERAL WEST OR
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...EXCEPT THAT THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION
OF THE CURRENT MOTION.

THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM SSTS FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS. THE CURRENT VERTICAL SHEAR OF 22 KT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DECREASE TO 15 KT IN 36 HOURS AND TO 10-15 KT THROUGH DAY 5.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH LEANS TOWARD THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CALLS
FOR STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 48 HOURS. HOWEVER SINCE
THE SYSTEM IS NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF TROPICAL STORM STATUS...IT
COULD BECOME ONE MUCH SOONER IF THE SHEAR RELAXES JUST A LITTLE BIT.

FORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 11.3N 103.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 11.4N 103.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 11.4N 104.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 11.1N 105.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 10.7N 106.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 10.0N 109.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 10.0N 112.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 21/1200Z 10.0N 116.0W 40 KT



Brent 16E is not dead after all.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

2.5/2.5...Tropical storm!!!

16/1745 UTC 11.7N 103.8W T2.5/2.5 16E

[cycloneye]

706
WTPZ41 KNHC 162032
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN OCT 16 2005

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS
STRUGGLING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WHILE THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST. DVORAK NUMBERS ARE 2.5 FROM SAB AND
AFWA AND 2.0 FROM TAFB. GIVEN THE SHEARING PATTERN...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS A CONSERVATIVE 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

INITIAL MOTION IS FURTHER TO THE RIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IS NOW 290/6. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC REASONING HAS CHANGED
LITTLE...IN THAT THE LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BY ALL
THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REACH ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT BY 18-24 HOURS...
THEN SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BUILD TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF TD-16E SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD OR SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF DUE WEST BEYOND 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH THE
MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST...BASED ON
AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT MOTION...AND LESS OF A TURN TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 27C-28C SSTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WHILE THE CURRENT VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20 KT IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 10-15 KT IN 36 HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST. AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE...CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 36
HOURS. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF TROPICAL STORM
STATUS...IT COULD BECOME ONE MUCH SOONER IF THE SHEAR RELAXES JUST
A LITTLE BIT.

FORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 11.8N 104.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 11.9N 104.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 11.9N 105.8W 30 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 11.7N 107.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 11.5N 108.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 11.0N 110.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 11.0N 113.8W 40 KT
120HR VT 21/1800Z 11.5N 117.0W 40 KT

[quandary]

TD 16 sure looks better today. The nice ball of convection should drive in over the TS threshold sometime soon. If TD 24 (its so hard to write 24!) had that ball of convection, it'd likely be deep enough to become Wilma.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This has a 2.5/2.5 in it looks 10 times better then tropical depression 24. What happen by going by data to upgrade? This is not sheared take a look at this loop...This is a tropical storm.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[cycloneye]

WTPZ21 KNHC 170240
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162005
0300Z MON OCT 17 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 104.8W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 104.8W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 104.4W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 12.3N 105.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.2N 107.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 11.9N 108.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 11.5N 109.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 11.0N 113.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 11.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 12.5N 119.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 104.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB



Despite the model upgrade as well NRL changing it to Pilar still is a TD.

[cycloneye]

TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN OCT 16 2005

VISIBLE AND ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAD INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING... AND CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM... SUPPORTED SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM ALL CLASSIFYING AGENCIES. HOWEVER...
RECENT SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION
CENTER IS SHEARED FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BANDING
FEATURE... AND THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED
CONSIDERABLY. THEREFORE... BASED ON THE SHORT TERM CLOUD PATTERN
CHANGES... WE WILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL AGREE ON A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO
MOVE WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. IN FACT... THE GFDL FORECASTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
BECOME A HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE
SHIPS MODEL.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/7. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A MID- LAYER RIDGE
TO THE NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND
SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THIS STEERING CURRENT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER- LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT FASTER BEYOND
36 HOURS TO CONFORM WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 12.2N 104.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 12.3N 105.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 12.2N 107.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 11.9N 108.3W 40 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 11.5N 109.8W 40 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 11.0N 113.1W 45 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 11.5N 116.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 22/0000Z 12.5N 119.5W 40 KT

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON OCT 17 2005

MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS STRIPPED AWAY ALL THE
DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER... DESPITE THE LACK OF CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER... DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS
T2.0/30 KT FROM ALL 3 AGENCIES. GIVEN THE VERY TIGHT SWIRL NOTED IN
NIGHTTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY... THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
BE HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATE IS 270/07. TD-16E REMAINS EMBEDDED IN
A FAIRLY DEEP EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
MOVING IN A WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER... THE VERTICAL SHEAR VECTOR IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST... SO ANY BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION
THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN SOME NORTHWARD JUMPS OR
WOBBLES IN THE TRACK.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 15 KT BY 36
HOURS... WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR INTENSIFICATION SINCE THE
CYCLONE WILL BE OVER 27.5C TO 28C SSTS. HOWEVER... THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO DECREASE FROM THE CURRENT 38 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO AROUND 20 PERCENT BY 48 HOURS. THIS EXTREMELY
DRY ENVIRONMENT MAY NOT ALLOW CONVECTION TO PERSIST OR EVEN
REDEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BEYOND 24 HOURS.... WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN THE SYSTEM DEGENERATING INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMANT LOW.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0900Z 12.0N 105.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 12.0N 106.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 12.0N 108.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 11.7N 109.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 11.5N 111.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 11.5N 114.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 11.5N 118.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 22/0600Z 12.5N 121.5W 35 KT

[cycloneye]

653
WTPZ41 KNHC 171426
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON OCT 17 2005

SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON
THE DEPRESSION. WHAT LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS IS DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS
ARE DOWN TO 1.0 FROM TAFB AND 1.5 FROM SAB AND AFWA...HENCE THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
NEIGHBORING ITCZ IS REMARKABLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH
INDICATES A LARGE-SCALE STABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH
THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...THE CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTION...SMALL CIRCULATION
SIZE...AND DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR...SHOULD MITIGATE AGAINST
REGENERATION. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW IN 48-72 HOURS...BUT UNLESS DEEP CONVECTION MAKES A
SIGNIFICANT COMEBACK... DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR MUCH SOONER.

THE CENTER OF THE WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD SWIRL IS RATHER EASY TO
TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 270/07. A
LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHOULD BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... THEREFORE A CONTINUED WESTWARD
MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...OR REMNANT LOW...IS PREDICTED.
THIS IS CLOSE TO THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 12.1N 106.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 12.1N 107.3W 25 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 12.0N 108.9W 25 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 12.0N 110.5W 25 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 12.0N 112.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 20/1200Z 12.0N 115.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 21/1200Z 12.0N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW



It was almost Pilar last night but now it's almost dead.

[tornadochaser86]

it looks like its dissipating

[cycloneye]

584
WTPZ21 KNHC 180237
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162005
0300Z TUE OCT 18 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 108.0W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 108.0W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 107.5W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.1N 109.3W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.0N 111.1W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.0N 112.9W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 12.0N 114.7W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.0N 118.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 108.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB

Adios.

[Scorpion]

Aw poor little TD.

[Brent]

Yeah... last tropical update Steve Lyons called it "pitiful" and that it would die a miserable death.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]