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jkt21787
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#421 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:06 am

Rainband wrote:I don't care where it goes as long as it's not here. Hope it misses all land and curves out to sea some how.

That will be REALLLY hard. I guess it could happen if some how it moved through the Yucatan channel, then made a sharp right through the FL straits, up the gulfstream west of the Bahamas, then northeast staying well away from Bermuda.
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#422 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:08 am

My first guess is that the W. peninsula of FL could be a potential hit. It is in the NHC cone.
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#423 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:09 am

Rainband wrote:I don't care where it goes as long as it's not here. Hope it misses all land and curves out to sea some how.


That would be quite unusual. If it misses the U.S., it's gonna have to cross Cuba.
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#424 Postby senorpepr » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:09 am

johngaltfla wrote:I've learned. :D I just like reading the uncluttered, uncommented data.


When you say "uncluttered, uncommented data," are you talking about replies in the thread or are you talking about the decoded observations.

Also, you can get raw, undecoded observations from http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/recon.htm
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#425 Postby johngaltfla » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:10 am

boca_chris wrote:My first guess is that the W. peninsula of FL could be a potential hit. It is in the NHC cone.


I'm so happy to be in the CONE OF DEATH again (not). Unfortunately after reading Derek's forecast in the analysis section, this is looking really, really bad for us in SW Florida....
:eek:
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#426 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:11 am

12z gfs much further west near yucatan now on thursday

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#427 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:11 am

Tampa Bay Hurricane (a user on here) mentioned that the last time Tampa Bay had a summer this dry was 1921 when Tampa Bay got hit by a major hurricane. That was Oct 25th also :eek:
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#428 Postby tracyswfla » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:13 am

ivanhater wrote:12z gfs much further west near yucatan now on thursday

Image


oh good... storm canceled for Florida?
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#429 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:13 am

tracyswfla wrote:oh good... storm canceled for Florida?

one model run does not a forecast make...
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#430 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:14 am

The latest GFS run takes a strong hurricane directly hitting the Tampa Bay area...
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/avntc2.cgi?time=2005101606&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
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#431 Postby StormFury » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:14 am

ivanhater wrote:12z gfs much further west near yucatan now on thursday

Image


But where does it make landfall? Certainly not anywhere near Pensacola.
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#432 Postby tracyswfla » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:14 am

jkt21787 wrote:
tracyswfla wrote:oh good... storm canceled for Florida?

one model run does not a forecast make...


I know.
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#433 Postby MzShell » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:14 am

hicksta wrote:i still think its going to become wilma, then just die into a td.


As unlikely as that scenario is, I sure wish you were right on this call. It's not convenient for a storm to come my way right now. Our 5-day forcast has no rain and low 80's. Sigh....
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#434 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:15 am

it only goes to thursday right now...wait for it to finish
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#435 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:15 am

CapeVerdeWave wrote:The latest GFS run takes a strong hurricane directly hitting the Tampa Bay area...
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/avntc2.cgi?time=2005101606&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

This is about to be an obsolete run, new run looks MUCH further west though the final landfall solution is not yet available.
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#436 Postby Opal storm » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:15 am

Is it just me or is it moving SW?You guys are saying this is going to Florida when it looks like this is going to central America.
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#437 Postby Scorpion » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:16 am

Opal storm wrote:Is it just me or is it moving SW?You guys are saying this is going to Florida when it looks like this is going to central America.


The erratic movement is expected until the trough picks it up.
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#438 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:17 am

Hope no one's going to Cancun...

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#439 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:18 am

anyone notice , where is the trough in the new gfs?
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#440 Postby Opal storm » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:18 am

StormFury wrote:
ivanhater wrote:12z gfs much further west near yucatan now on thursday



But where does it make landfall? Certainly not anywhere near Pensacola.

What is that suppose to mean???
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