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Brent
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#461 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:30 am

:shocked!:

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#462 Postby artist » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:30 am

I have noticed a pattern that the 0z and 12z seem to usually be the most accurate - anyone else?
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#463 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:31 am

Brent wrote::shocked!:

I'm not shocked. I said it would have to make a heck of a right turn to go south of Tampa Bay.
Last edited by jkt21787 on Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#464 Postby johngaltfla » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:31 am

Brent wrote::shocked!:

Image


Well, that would be good for us, bad for New Orleans....or what's left of it.
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#465 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:31 am

Looks like the Cedar Key/Port Richey area? Hard to tell but it's a little north of Tampa.

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Last edited by Brent on Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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StormFury

#466 Postby StormFury » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:31 am

ivanhater wrote:Image


Where does it end up making landfall? Show the rest of the GFS model or post a link. We are all DYING to know...
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Scorpion

#467 Postby Scorpion » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:33 am

Big Bend. So just slightly to the left of the 6Z.
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#468 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:33 am

StormFury wrote:Where does it end up making landfall? Show the rest of the GFS model or post a link. We are all DYING to know...

It looks like its coming in right at the bend between the panhandle and peninsula...
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#469 Postby fasterdisaster » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:34 am

Looks like around St. Marks to me.
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Scorpion

#470 Postby Scorpion » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:34 am

Cedar Key. A little too far left IMO but its a possibility.
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#471 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:34 am

Scorpion wrote:Big Bend. So just slightly to the left of the 6Z.

LOL, that is NOT a slight left shift. Thats more than 100 miles in FL and even further initially with a near Yucatan.
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Rainband

#472 Postby Rainband » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:35 am

That would mean massive surge for the Nature coast :eek:
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#473 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:35 am

Scorpion wrote:Cedar Key. A little too far left IMO but its a possibility.

LOL again. You said it was unrealistic on another board until *I* said it was actually a possibility. You should try doing better if you're going to steal opinions...
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Florida_TSR

#474 Postby Florida_TSR » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:36 am

It won't get that far north. The models aren't picking up the trough.
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Scorpion

#475 Postby Scorpion » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:37 am

Florida_TSR wrote:It won't get that far north. The models aren't picking up the trough.


Yes its all about the trough. If it is weak the above scenario would happen, but it its very strong a Michelle-scenario could happen. I am leaning on something in between.
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#476 Postby tracyswfla » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:38 am

Ok so now the bandwagon is changing their tune? Ughhhh, I need to step away from the keyboard.
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#477 Postby fasterdisaster » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:39 am

Image

A yabba-doo time
A yabba-doo-time
We'll have a gay old time!

WILMA!!!
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#478 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:39 am

That GFS run is getting too close for comfort. From those points it looks like the storm could move back offshore near Jax. or SE GA.
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#479 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:40 am

Convection is still not over the center, may be some TS force gusts maybe a few sustained in that convection, but so far nothing overly impressive IMO.
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Rainband

#480 Postby Rainband » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:41 am

still way to early in the game to be alarmed. I am not concerned at this point. Well not that much anyway :lol:
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