TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[tracyswfla]

12Z UKMET has shifted well to the left. Wonder what this means.

<RICKY>

How far left?

not that far...

[WeatherEmperor]

At 00Z it had TD24 just at the western tip of Cuba and at 12Z it has TD 24 north of the Yucatan peninsula entering the central gulf.

<RICKY>

[markymark8]

12Z UKMET has shifted well to the left. Wonder what this means. That could be bad news. She could go in further west in the gulf now and make landfall in the central gulf coast or Panhandle of Florida.

<RICKY>

How far left?

[hicksta]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 79.3W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL242005



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 16.10.2005 17.0N 79.3W WEAK

00UTC 17.10.2005 16.9N 79.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 17.10.2005 16.9N 79.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 18.10.2005 17.1N 79.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 18.10.2005 17.2N 80.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 19.10.2005 17.7N 81.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.10.2005 18.1N 83.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 20.10.2005 18.7N 84.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 20.10.2005 19.4N 85.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 21.10.2005 20.3N 86.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.10.2005 21.6N 87.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.10.2005 22.1N 88.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 22.10.2005 23.3N 88.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY



12z UKMET

[Budro999]

Clearly the NOGAPS solution is a western outlier compared to some of the other models up to this point. Yes, the NOGAPS did do well with Keith; however, it is tough to determine whether it was due to actual model skill or some sort of bias that might be inherent to the model. When looking at the NOGAPS performance this season compared to all the other dynamical and ensemble models, the NOGAPS has performed well compared to dynamical models like the GFS and UKMET, but consensus forecasts like OFCL, GUNS, and GUNA have all outperformed the NOGAPS. In this situation, I think everyone just needs to take a deep breath and wait for this system to do whatever it is going to do. It is in an environment that would support intensification, so it is reasonable to expect an intensifying tropical storm/hurricane in the Caribbean during the coming week. With a potential landfall being several days away, everyone along the Eastern/Central Gulf Coast will have plenty of time to watch this system and to prepare, if need be.

[Brent]

12UTC 22.10.2005 23.3N 88.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

[/b]

12z UKMET

88.1 W is south of the AL coast.

[whereverwx]

Calamity,

Just awesome! Great job on the map. That's what it's there for!

Thanks!

[WeatherEmperor]

12UTC 22.10.2005 23.3N 88.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

[/b]

12z UKMET

88.1 W is south of the AL coast.

thats what i was saying. it has shifted well left at the end of the run at around 144hrs. wonder if all models will keep on shifting more and more left in time.

<RICKY>

[quandary]

This depression is getting a little over-hyped. I'm looking in the Analysis Forum and seeing consistent forecasts for a Cat 4 hurricane in about 5 days. Of course the probability is there for a Cat 4 storm, but it would seem that no other storm has been forecasted this high this early. Rita was forecasted to flirt with major strength and Katrina to go to 90kts early on.

No intention to attack anyone, but do the experts and others really believe that their forecasts of 115kts and 120kts are in line with other forecasts?

[gatorcane]

This depression is getting a little over-hyped. I'm looking in the Analysis Forum and seeing consistent forecasts for a Cat 4 hurricane in about 5 days. Of course the probability is there for a Cat 4 storm, but it would seem that no other storm has been forecasted this high this early. Rita was forecasted to flirt with major strength and Katrina to go to 90kts early on.

No intention to attack anyone, but do the experts and others really believe that their forecasts of 115kts and 120kts are in line with other forecasts?

No, it's not getting overhyped. The NHC clearly mentions the high probability of a major hurricane forming. If the NHC is mentioning this scenario this early you have to be concerned as they are usually conservative in their forecasts:

From 11AM NHC advisory:

WITH LOW SHEAR AND GOOD ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW...AND THERE IS A DEEP SUPPLY OF WARM WATER IN THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN. THE RAPID INSTENSIFICATION COMPONENT OF THE SHIPS MODEL
IS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID DEVELOPMENT...
BUT A BETTER DEFINED INNER CORE STRUCTURE NEEDS TO FORM FIRST. THE
GFDL MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN
THREE DAYS...AND THE LARGE SCALE FACTORS ARE CERTAINLY IN PLACE TO
ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS
MODEL EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT FAVORS THE GFDL LATER ON.

[cycloneye]

TPNT KGWC 161655
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR
B. 11/1615Z (110)
C. 17.1N/9
D. 79.3W/9
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T1.5/1.5/INIT OBS -16/1615Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. FT BASED ON DT, PT AGREES


AODT: T1.5 (SHEAR)

KAMINSKI



Air Force T Numbers sat estimate.

[cycloneye]

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FO 24L

INITIAL TIME 12Z OCT 16

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.1 79.4 360./ .0
6 17.2 79.7 288./ 3.0
12 17.1 80.0 244./ 2.9
18 16.9 80.1 201./ 2.8
24 16.8 80.1 240./ .8
30 17.2 80.4 329./ 4.8
36 17.7 80.6 336./ 5.3
42 18.1 81.1 304./ 6.2
48 18.3 81.8 291./ 6.7
54 18.6 82.3 297./ 5.1
60 19.0 82.9 303./ 7.0
66 18.9 83.4 268./ 4.5
72 19.3 83.8 309./ 5.4
78 19.5 84.1 309./ 3.5
84 19.8 84.4 308./ 3.8
90 20.0 84.7 301./ 3.7
96 20.4 84.9 330./ 4.5
102 20.9 85.2 334./ 6.1
108 21.5 85.5 334./ 6.0
114 22.0 85.6 344./ 5.4
120 22.6 85.7 353./ 6.6
126 23.2 85.8 351./ 5.9




12z GFDL.

[artist]

quandary - those in the tropical analysis forum have the credentials! Do you mind me asking what yours are to be able to question them?

[floridahurricaneguy]

Here is a new forecast map for TD 24. I tried making it a different way.

[Rainband]

Mike Watkins seems to be spot on. Looks bad for the west coast and the big bend.

[gatorcane]

Alot of very dry air to the north of TD #24. How long is this going to be there for? It seems to be wrapping into this system at this time.

[Brent]

Here is a new forecast map for TD 24. I tried making it a different way.

Say goodbye to your house...

[gatorcane]

Mike Watkins seems to be spot on. Looks bad for the west coast and the big bend.

agreed

[fasterdisaster]

Alot of very dry air to the north of TD #24. How long is this going to be there for? It seems to be wrapping into this system at this time.

It will start letting up tonight or tomorrow morning.