TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Rainband]

Good bring on the dry air

[TS Zack]

Here is a new forecast map for TD 24. I tried making it a different way.

Say goodbye to your house...

Tell me about it.

[Rainband]

Here is a new forecast map for TD 24. I tried making it a different way.

Say goodbye to your house...

Well thats nice

[fasterdisaster]

Good bring on the dry air

It's only going to be strong there for today.

[Stratosphere747]

quandary - those in the tropical analysis forum have the credentials! Do you mind me asking what yours are to be able to question them?

Quandary does make some valid points.

The NHC will be the first to step up and say their intensification forecasts is sill one of the weak spots in forecasting.

Still many days to monitor a storm that is yet to even have a name...

Scott

[floridahurricaneguy]

Hey thats just a possible track, I am in no way hoping it happens. So do you guys think since models are shifting left that trough may actually be weaker now or just odd model run?

Matt

[hicksta]

Mike Watkins seems to be spot on. Looks bad for the west coast and the big bend.

agreed

Its 7 days out... Also pretty sure he said Rita was going to hit corpus or south of there.

[Brent]

Recon is getting close to the center and the winds are picking up...

[gatorcane]

Quandary does make some valid points.

The NHC will be the first to step up and say their intensification forecasts is sill one of the weak spots in forecasting.

Still many days to monitor a storm that is yet to even have a name...

Scott

I think many have written this season off and/or are in disbelief right now sharing your wistful thinking above. I think most don't even know what is going on right now in the W. Coast of FL.

BUT, unforunately we have a dire situation unfolding. People will wake up in a day or two when this thing is a T.S or Hurricane aiming at the Eastern GOM. I've already woken up.

[fasterdisaster]

I think TD24's sustained winds are 37-38 mph, in other words, close to TS.

just based on sat presentation.

[fasterdisaster]

I think TD24's sustained winds are 37-38 mph, in other words, close to TS.

just based on sat presentation.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOU (AL242005) ON 20051016 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051016 1800 051017 0600 051017 1800 051018 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.6N 79.3W 17.9N 80.0W 18.1N 80.9W 18.5N 82.1W
BAMM 17.6N 79.3W 18.0N 80.2W 18.3N 81.3W 18.5N 82.6W
A98E 17.6N 79.3W 17.9N 79.5W 18.4N 80.3W 19.0N 80.9W
LBAR 17.6N 79.3W 17.9N 79.6W 18.8N 80.6W 19.9N 81.4W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051018 1800 051019 1800 051020 1800 051021 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.9N 83.3W 19.8N 85.6W 21.0N 87.1W 22.8N 88.2W
BAMM 18.7N 83.9W 19.2N 86.1W 20.2N 87.3W 22.3N 87.8W
A98E 19.5N 81.5W 19.5N 82.6W 20.7N 83.4W 24.0N 83.6W
LBAR 21.3N 81.8W 24.6N 80.0W 29.0N 75.5W 33.4N 67.9W
SHIP 57KTS 70KTS 76KTS 72KTS
DSHP 57KTS 70KTS 68KTS 68KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 79.3W DIRCUR = 340DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 17.1N LONM12 = 79.1W DIRM12 = 305DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 17.4N LONM24 = 78.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


18:00z BAM Model Guidance.

[Scorpion]

Quandary does make some valid points.

The NHC will be the first to step up and say their intensification forecasts is sill one of the weak spots in forecasting.

Still many days to monitor a storm that is yet to even have a name...

Scott

I think many have written this season off and/or are in disbelief right now sharing your wistful thinking above. I think most don't even know what is going on right now in the W. Coast of FL.

BUT, unforunately we have a dire situation unfolding. People will wake up in a day or two when this thing is a T.S or Hurricane aiming at the Eastern GOM. I've already woken up.

I agree Chris. Many refuse to believe another disaster will unfold since we had Katrina and Rita. TD-24/Wilma does not know there was a Katrina or Rita.

[KatDaddy]

The reality is weather has no memory and another disaster could easily unfold. One must realize the "what if scenario" if Mitch would have moved NNE to NE across Florida instead of stalling in the NW Caribbean Sea and drifting into Central America. One must also realize Florida is a still a hotspot for landfalling storms in October. TD24 must be watched very carefully by all our Florida friends and should be taken seriously.

[Stratosphere747]

Quandary does make some valid points.

The NHC will be the first to step up and say their intensification forecasts is sill one of the weak spots in forecasting.

Still many days to monitor a storm that is yet to even have a name...

Scott

I think many have written this season off and/or are in disbelief right now sharing your wistful thinking above. I think most don't even know what is going on right now in the W. Coast of FL.

BUT, unforunately we have a dire situation unfolding. People will wake up in a day or two when this thing is a T.S or Hurricane aiming at the Eastern GOM. I've already woken up.

I agree Chris. Many refuse to believe another disaster will unfold since we had Katrina and Rita. TD-24/Wilma does not know there was a Katrina or Rita.

That in itself is a problem though....

I woke up on a Wednesday morning with a bona fide category 5 hurricane forecasted to slam right between Matagorda Bay and Freeport. Despite the traffic issues, my entire area was evacuated in plenty of time. By Friday night when Rita was beginning to make landfall we had nothing more than 30mph winds. The models changed of course along with the final landfall, only two days out.

Now with this particular depression and only a depression, that is still possibly over a week from impacting any part of the CONUS, words such as "dire" "cat4" etc... are being thrown about.

Nothing wrong with being vigilant and prepared, but this is IMO very early in the game to begin a paranoia type of forecasting. Florida folk with the experiences over the last two years should have plenty of time to prepare and evacuate if needed, even those in TBay and areas that have been spared if the worst case scenarios does happen to play out.

Scott

[Rainband]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOU (AL242005) ON 20051016 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051016 1800 051017 0600 051017 1800 051018 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.6N 79.3W 17.9N 80.0W 18.1N 80.9W 18.5N 82.1W
BAMM 17.6N 79.3W 18.0N 80.2W 18.3N 81.3W 18.5N 82.6W
A98E 17.6N 79.3W 17.9N 79.5W 18.4N 80.3W 19.0N 80.9W
LBAR 17.6N 79.3W 17.9N 79.6W 18.8N 80.6W 19.9N 81.4W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051018 1800 051019 1800 051020 1800 051021 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.9N 83.3W 19.8N 85.6W 21.0N 87.1W 22.8N 88.2W
BAMM 18.7N 83.9W 19.2N 86.1W 20.2N 87.3W 22.3N 87.8W
A98E 19.5N 81.5W 19.5N 82.6W 20.7N 83.4W 24.0N 83.6W
LBAR 21.3N 81.8W 24.6N 80.0W 29.0N 75.5W 33.4N 67.9W
SHIP 57KTS 70KTS 76KTS 72KTS
DSHP 57KTS 70KTS 68KTS 68KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 79.3W DIRCUR = 340DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 17.1N LONM12 = 79.1W DIRM12 = 305DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 17.4N LONM24 = 78.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


18:00z BAM Model Guidance.

I thought the bamms were worthless. Maybe not this time since we have Wilma soon and Bamm Bamm. LOL I know bad joke

[jlauderdal]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOU (AL242005) ON 20051016 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051016 1800 051017 0600 051017 1800 051018 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.6N 79.3W 17.9N 80.0W 18.1N 80.9W 18.5N 82.1W
BAMM 17.6N 79.3W 18.0N 80.2W 18.3N 81.3W 18.5N 82.6W
A98E 17.6N 79.3W 17.9N 79.5W 18.4N 80.3W 19.0N 80.9W
LBAR 17.6N 79.3W 17.9N 79.6W 18.8N 80.6W 19.9N 81.4W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051018 1800 051019 1800 051020 1800 051021 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.9N 83.3W 19.8N 85.6W 21.0N 87.1W 22.8N 88.2W
BAMM 18.7N 83.9W 19.2N 86.1W 20.2N 87.3W 22.3N 87.8W
A98E 19.5N 81.5W 19.5N 82.6W 20.7N 83.4W 24.0N 83.6W
LBAR 21.3N 81.8W 24.6N 80.0W 29.0N 75.5W 33.4N 67.9W
SHIP 57KTS 70KTS 76KTS 72KTS
DSHP 57KTS 70KTS 68KTS 68KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 79.3W DIRCUR = 340DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 17.1N LONM12 = 79.1W DIRM12 = 305DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 17.4N LONM24 = 78.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


18:00z BAM Model Guidance.

I thought the bamms were worthless. Maybe not this time since we have Wilma soon and Bamm Bamm. LOL I know bad joke

bam bams are better in the deep tropics

[SotabusterFL]

With the newest models shifting west, I'm starting to feel a little better here. Do these shifts indicate more likely a panhandle hit?

[artist]

I don't care if it comes in as a tropical depression (highly unlikely) look at what it could do if it sits there -

Sun Oct 16, 2005
Flooding reported by ODPEM



File photo
The Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM) is reporting flooding in a number of areas.


According to a release issued by the ODPEM, the Yallahs Fording and the Eleven Miles Bull Bay Fording in St. Thomas are impassable.

Reports are that the Chalky River and The Dry River at Serge Island in the parish have also overflowed their banks.

In Trelawny the Salt Marsh road is flooded.

Teams from the Jamaica Fire Brigade as well as the National Works Agency have been dispatched to render emergency assistance in these areas.

The ODPEM is advising the public that as the Tropical Depression remains over the island, weather conditions should be monitored for further developments.




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http://www.televisionjamaica.com/news/s ... tory=20720

[Opal storm]

With the newest models shifting west, I'm starting to feel a little better here. Do these shifts indicate more likely a panhandle hit?

You still need to keep an eye on this.It's days away from the Gulf,the models will continue to shift to the west and east.