TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON MAY 19 2003
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS
GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. ANIMATION OF VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWED A DECENT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
CONVECTIVE BAND WAS OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF
THE SYSTEM...AND THE DATA T-NUMBER FROM THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH IS NOW 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THEREFORE THE
SYSTEM IS BEING NUMBERED AS THE FIRST DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC SEASON. THE CYCLONE IS OVER VERY WARM WATER BUT THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS CONSERVATIVE...AND ABOUT 10
KT BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
BEST GUESS AT INITIAL MOTION IS 270/8. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A
WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING
THE PERIOD. THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO...BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF...THE
NOGAPS MODEL TRACK.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0300Z 9.6N 103.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 9.7N 104.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 10.0N 106.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 10.5N 108.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 11.0N 110.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 12.0N 114.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 13.0N 118.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 25/0000Z 14.0N 122.0W 35 KT
Tropical Depression 1-E forms
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Stormsfury
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Tropical Depression 1-E forms
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cycloneye
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Ok here we have the first TD and later Andres the first storm of the EPAC season as it looks to go up in intensity.
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mf_dolphin
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Well windshear shouldnt be too much of a factor.........Looking at a water vapor loop thier is some westerlies but they appear light.........I would say if anything this will stay on a course due west for atleast a couple of days or so before it gets caught up in the strong sw windflow just east of Hawaii.........Probably will become a min Cane before it weakens......
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cycloneye
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The remmanants may spread to the baja and south CA but nothing like it will be in comming days like being a storm only rain.
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cycloneye
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg
This is the floater and the TD looks like a storm already and that is what the TPC will do later today to classifie it as Andres.
This is the floater and the TD looks like a storm already and that is what the TPC will do later today to classifie it as Andres.
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mf_dolphin
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Can't wait to get a visible shot today! Here's a portion of the 2AM Forecast Discussion from the NHC
THE CYCLONE CURRENTLY HAS FAIR TO GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS...AND IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE IT SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THROUGH 48-72 HR...WITH SOME INCREASE IN SHEAR POSSIBLE AFTERWARDS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO COOLER WATER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR STEADY
STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HR AND WEAKENING AFTER 72 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. ONE POTENTIAL INHIBITING FACTOR IS A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION. SHOULD THIS AIR ENTRAIN INTO THE CYCLONE IT COULD SLOW OR PREVENT DEVELOPMENT.
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wx247
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Wow. Looks like a tropical storm Ana will be here today, but I doubt that it will become a hurricane. It is running out of real estate.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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