TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[JamesFromMaine2]

Don't forget that this year hasn't followed other years at all! so just because normally oct. storms would hit the keys or south florida it doesn't mean thats where its headed this year!

[Florida_TSR]

I don't want it. The models are acting as if their are September type upper level winds. There is a strong trough digging in from S. Cal. This trough will push Wilma East. From Tampa south is the area of greatest risk.

[CHRISTY]

i agree models maybe missing the strength of this trough!

[Rainband]

All I wented for it to be named a 40 mph trpoical storm. Sorry if you think mean I went it to become a cat5.

Sorry just dont want to deal with any storm anywhere in the US. We have had enough. Didn't mean to come off harsh!!

[Florida_TSR]

This trough brought winds in excess of 70 MPH to the central Sierra Nevada mountains. It is going to bring cooling of 10-15 degrees in the desert SW.

[CHRISTY]

my point ... that sounds like a pretty strong trough which the models are not handeling to good..

[wxman57]

Here's a recent satellite image with onshore & offshore obs plotted. Note the general 10-15 kt circulation indicated. Those 25 kt winds to the east of the center are 300 miles away from the center. There just isn't any pressure gradient near the center, so it's still a TD.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/wilma8.gif">

[Ivanhater]

THERE HAS BEEN A
SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT IN VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...GFDL...UKMET...
NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODELS...WITH ONLY THE ECMWF RELATIVELY
UNMOVED. GENERALLY SPEAKING...THESE MODELS SHOW LESS EROSION OF THE
RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THAN IN EARLIER RUNS...AND HAVE A MORE
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME
FRAME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD...AND IS
CLOSE TO THE GFDL...WITH THE UKMET...GFS...AND NOGAPS CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER WEST.

[CHRISTY]

what does this WNW movement so soon mean for florida?

[Florida_TSR]

That is really bad news for the FL panhandle.

[HurricaneQueen]

wxman57:

What are the odds, in your opinion, that this may not develop?

Thanks,
Lynn

[Rainband]

I am going with cedar key. Bad news the surge will be bad. The shift to the west makes a bend to the ne or nne even more likely now.

[CHRISTY]

do you think now this NE turn may occur sooner then later?

[Rainband]

do you think now this NE turn may occur sooner then later?

*sigh*

[cinlfla]

what does this WNW movement so soon mean for florida?

I think it means that it will probably miss the Florida west coast and move more towards the pandhandle and northern Gulf.

[Brent]

what does this WNW movement so soon mean for florida?

Good news for the Peninsula(especially Tampa southward)... I'm really skeptical that Miami sees anything now.

[Rainband]

what does this WNW movement so soon mean for florida?

I think it means that it will probably miss the Florida west coast and move more towards the pandhandle and northern Gulf.

unfortunately the models are underestimating the trof. The shift back east will occur on the next runs. Look at the tracks this year thus far. I believe all of them were too far west early on. I will watch this one closely!!

[DESTRUCTION5]

No storm will make it W past FL panhandle in late Oct...Please Note the The GFS may be Way further west but notice the E turn...Its ENE not NNE....Timeing will be everything and this sit still a W coast FL storm..

[chrisnnavarre]

Ivan II. Wonderful, well maybe Opal or Dennis II..who cares. Tired of running from them. I knew I shouldn't let my wife talk me into taking down those boards.

[SunnyThoughts]

Chris...we took ours down also. Possibly a little too soon, we'll just have to wait and watch... as always.