TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[wxman57]

wxman57:

What are the odds, in your opinion, that this may not develop?

Thanks,
Lynn

Lynn,

I don't think that there is too much chance that this depression won't be Wilma within 12-24 hours. Once it gets its core going, then we should see rapid intensification to hurricane strength. Dry air intrusion goes away after 48 hours, and wind shear is light, so no reason it won't reach Cat 3-4 over the NW Caribbean. Development chances to TS - 95%, to hurricane would be about the same. If it becomes a TS, it'll almost certainly become a hurricane.

[TS Zack]

At this time of the year, you rarely see a pattern that allows a storm to continue Westward. In this case a Zonal Flow will be set-up, the westerlies will be down to the Gulf Coast. That is why at some point this storm will recurve quickly.

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KMFL 161821
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
221 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. MIAMI RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TRACKING EAST JUST
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TOMORROW WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AND A FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA.

MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE ON TUESDAY AS T.D. 24
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS...THOUGH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CREEPS BACK INTO THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM DURING THIS 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD IS
DEVELOPMENT IN THE TROPICS. OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST SUGGESTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24) WILL BE EMERGING INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE ON THURSDAY. FORECAST DETAILS FOR
THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE WORST
CONDITIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA WOULD BE EXPERIENCED ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. PEOPLE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
GULF COAST WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS DEVELOPING
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MONITOR THE LATEST
ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST TRACK
AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.

&&
.MARINE...WAVE MODELS INDICATE SWELL SHOULD BEGIN FADING LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SURF CAMS SHOW MUCH
LESS SWELL FROM BOCA RATON SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...IN THIS AREA...WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS DIRECTLY OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM CURRENT ARE
LIKELY RESULTING IN LARGER WIND WAVES JUST A FEW MILES OFFSHORE.
WE MAY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TOMORROW...EVER
SO BRIEFLY...BEFORE WINDS RESPOND TO INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE SOUTH.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DETERIORATING ON THURSDAY OVER THE GULF
AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AS SYSTEM NEARS.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES DUE
TO STRONG NORTHEAST BREEZES AND SWELLS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE DIPPED SLIGHTLY BELOW 40
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTH
FLORIDA. SIMILARLY DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW...THOUGH
NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
BEGIN CLIMBING LATE TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 71 86 72 86 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 74 86 75 86 / 0 0 0 0
MIAMI 74 87 75 87 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 68 87 69 87 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

HANDEL

[CHRISTY]

thats what i was thinking .... by it moving slower wont this turn begin sooner then later? if it continues to drift by this time tomorrow would that mean this turn will accur further south.

[Dean4Storms]

Nobody has been cleared of this storm yet, true the models are indicating a further westward track before turning northward into the weakness but alot will depend on how far west and then how far north she makes it before she turns more NE in advance of the trough, if at all. So everyone from Mobile to Key West need to stay abreast of this storms future.

You guys need to lay off biting on one shift in the models.

[tampastorm]

This exactly what the NHC has been saying all along a drift to the WNW before a more northern turn. So what is all this South Florida out of the woods talk?! Nothing has changed at all.

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KTBW 161730
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

.SHORT TERM (TNGT-TUE)...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG U.S. EAST COAST
WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RIDGING REMAINING
CENTERED OVER WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. CONTINUING THE RELATIVELY DRY
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...WE SHOULD SEE
A CONTINUATION OF THE MOSTLY CLEAR DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (TUE NGT-SUN)...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGING OVER THE AREA
WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR TO JUST
ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO TD 24. CURRENT NHC FORECAST HAS A HURRICANE
(WHICH WOULD BE NAMED WILMA) JUST OFF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA BY
FRIDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT MOST LONG RANGE MODELS CURVE IT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND TAKE IT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOMETIME
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT AS
TO WHAT EXACTLY WILL HAPPEN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CONTINUE TRENDING TOWARD A WETTER FORECAST IF
THESE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE. FOR NOW...HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND RAISED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HAVE ALSO KEPT SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR NOW AND INTRODUCED SCATTERED POPS (30%) FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED POPS BEFORE AND AFTER THEN.&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SHIFT TO EAST BY MID-WEEK AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND EVENTUALLY OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW FLAG CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY...AND COULD THEN INCREASE
FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF TD 24.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO DROP
TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 PERCENT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY INCREASE TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY. THUS...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE RED FLAG
CRITERIA FOR THIS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 67 87 68 88 / 00 00 00 00
FMY 66 88 68 89 / 00 00 00 00
GIF 65 88 66 89 / 00 00 00 00
SRQ 64 87 65 88 / 00 00 00 00
BKV 54 87 56 88 / 00 00 00 00

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PRC
LONG TERM....JLC

[bevgo]

Just keep it away from MS or LA. We can't take anymore!

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KMLB 161818
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
218 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005


.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT EVENING EXPECTED. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW MARINE STRATOCU NEAR THE EAST COAST.
WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT NW WITH A FEW
AREAS BECOMING CALM BEFORE SUNRISE. MAY SEE A LITTLE PATCHY FOG
NORTHERN SECTIONS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT MAINLY AN AVIATION CONCERN.
TEMPS DROPPING INTO LOW-MID 60S N/C WITH UPPER 60S SRN COASTAL
SECTIONS AND A FEW UPPER 50S AGAIN IN NORTHERN RURAL SPOTS.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF AREA WEATHER WITH
CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT AUTUMN WEATHER. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE
MID 80S BUT DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE 60S WILL KEEP IT FROM
FEELING UNCOMFORTABLE. WINDS WILL VEER A LITTLE MORE ENE BUT REMAIN
AOB 10KT. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT FEW-SCT CU/SC DURING
THE DAYTIME BUT STILL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

MON NIGHT-WED...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE THEN
BECOME ZONAL WED. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF CWA AND
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE. 1000-500MB MOISTURE
BEGINS INCREASING OVERNIGHT WED AS DEEP LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN STARTS
DRAWING TROPICAL AIR MASS NORTHWARD.

THU-SUN...DEPENDS ON EVOLUTION OF TD 24...WHICH AN AIR FORCE RECON
IS PRESENTLY FLYING INTO...AND WILL BE GIVEN THE NAME 'WILMA' IF IT
STRENGTHENS INTO A TROP STORM. 1000-500MB LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STRENGTHENING
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS CUBA AND INTO GULF OF MEXICO. BIG DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN GFS 06Z AND 12Z RUNS. TOO MUCH DISPARITY AMONG MODELS
MOISTURE FIELDS/TIMING AND OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK TO BE MAKING ANY
SIG CHANGES TO GRIDS BEYOND WED. EXTENDED COORD/CHATS WITH
SURROUNDING WFO'S HAVE AGREED TO WAIT FOR CONSENSUS OF LATER MODEL
RUNS BEFORE MAKING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...CAUTION STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LONG
PERIOD SWELL STILL RESULTING IN SEAS AROUND 6 FT AT BUOY 41009. WITH
WINDS ONLY ARND 10KT...MUCH OF THE HEIGHT IS DUE TO SWELL COMPONENT.
SEAS FORECAST TO FURTHER DIMINISH MON AND TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES CLOSER TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY AFTER
THURS AS TROPICAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE
EASTERN GULF TO WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF GA/SC FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDTIONS GENERALLY REMAINING VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
ONLY THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG...MAINLY NORTHERN
SECTIONS NEAR DAB AND SFB IN THE 10-12Z TIME FRAME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 62 84 64 86 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 62 88 64 88 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 63 85 68 85 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 67 86 70 87 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GLITTO
LONG TERM....WIMMER




[Rainband]

Southern Florida is starting to look a little better. Meaning out the woods but you never know so stay alert.

To me the Big Bend looks good for a direct hit.

If this trough is weaker than expected, don't expect a sharp recurvature till she nears the North Gulf.

I wouldn't say that south Florida is looking a little better, yet. If the storm doesn't move as quickly as forecast, then any NE turn begins from farther south, putting south Florida under the gun. Typical forecast errors for this type of system are to the left. Such weak systems tend to track right of the forecast about 70-75% of the time (per a study by Lance Wood of the Houston/Galveston NWS office).

Thats why I say the big Bend. I will go on a limb and say Cedar Key. Crow is good this time of year!!

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KEYW 161851
AFDEYW

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
250 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...
.OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS...
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHED 81 DEGREES IN MARATHON...AND 82 DEGREES IN
KEY WEST EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...UNDER A CANOPY OF STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN REMAIN OVER PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS...WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS BEYOND 20 MILES SOUTH OF
THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN. ASOS STATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...WHILE CMAN PLATFORMS HAVE BEEN AVERAGING
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 27 KNOTS.

.FORECASTS...
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE KEYS
AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF THE KEYS. FOR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY....A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
MEANWHILE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24 IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND
GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST WELL SOUTH OF CUBA THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND T.D. 24 WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY
OVER THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...DEEPENING NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEING RE-INTRODUCED INTO
THE FORECAST BY TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND LOCATION OF T.D.
24. AT THIS TIME WITH THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST TRACK...THE OUTER
EDGES OF THE SYSTEM WOULD AFFECT THE WATERS 60 MILES SOUTH OF DRY
TORTUGAS BY THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MOVING NORTH OVER THESE WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY...AND MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
IF T.D. 24 WERE TO CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT FORECASTED PATH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE DAILY
HIGHS AND NIGHTLY LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&
.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.
HENCE...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL BE MAINTAINED.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
REGARDING T.D 24.

&&.AVIATION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN A DYING FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE WEST
THROUGH THE KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS BY THIS EVENING. PREVAILING
IFR CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED AT KMTH...WITH MOST OF THE HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE CELLS WELL OFFSHORE. VFR CEILINGS 035-060 WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 21Z BEFORE LIFTING TO NEAR 100 WITH TOPS AROUND FL 150.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND MIST WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
3-5SM...MAINLY OVER LOWER KEYS BEFORE 21Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FROM 040-050 12-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT. THIS WILL CREATE
CROSS WINDS FROM 10-15KT ON THE RUNWAYS AT BOTH KEYW AND KMTH.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 77/86/78/86/78 20/20/30/40/40
MARATHON 77/86/78/86/78 20/20/30/40/40

&&
.EYW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

K. KASPER
L. KASPER
J. RIZZO

[CHRISTY]

its only drifting WNW if it continues to do that this NE turn may happen further south?opinions

[TS Zack]

Southern Florida is starting to look a little better. Meaning out the woods but you never know so stay alert.

To me the Big Bend looks good for a direct hit.

If this trough is weaker than expected, don't expect a sharp recurvature till she nears the North Gulf.

I wouldn't say that south Florida is looking a little better, yet. If the storm doesn't move as quickly as forecast, then any NE turn begins from farther south, putting south Florida under the gun. Typical forecast errors for this type of system are to the left. Such weak systems tend to track right of the forecast about 70-75% of the time (per a study by Lance Wood of the Houston/Galveston NWS office).

Thats why I say the big Bend. I will go on a limb and say Cedar Key. Crow is good this time of year!!

By the time it actually begins to move it should be a pretty strong storm.

We still playing darts at this point. Still 6-7 days out and also we are dealing with a October storm.

[artist]

Christy - right now it is just meandering - not truly having any effect on track at this particular time. I think one of the mets mentioned that to you.

[wxwatcher91]

000
FXUS61 KBOX 161935
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
335 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS POSTED UNTIL 10 PM FOR ALL ZONES. SO FAR
WE HAVE BEEN IN SOLID WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...NAMELY SUSTAINED
25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO 40S...BUT THIS HAS PRODUCED WIND DAMAGE
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL/EASTERN MA AND NORTHERN RI. WE EXPECT SIMILAR
WIND SPEEDS INTO EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATED SITES AND NEAR
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS...BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
SEE LOCAL STORM REPORT AND PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS FOR
DETAILS...BEING ISSUED AS TIME PERMITS.

FLOODING IS OTHER CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON...REFER TO HYDROLOGY
SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COUPLED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LED TO
A WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD SHIELD COVERING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DESPITE
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE RATHER PERSISTENT
TONIGHT....BUT SLOWLY ERODE FROM S TO N AND UPPER COLD POOL SHIFTS E.
TYPICALLY WE USE 850 MB RIDGE TO DETERMINE WHEN CLEARING WILL TAKE
PLACE...AND BOTH NAM/GFS DO NOT SHOW UPPER FLOW BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC
BEFORE MON. SO WE DELAYED CLEARING A BIT FROM GOING FORECAST.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E FROM GREAT LAKES MON AND MON NIGHT.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BUT WE SHOULD HAVE A PERIOD OF 20-25 MPH
GUSTS MON AS MIXING LAYER DEEPENS ONCE AGAIN. WINDS DROP OFF MON
NIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.

MODELS WANT TO QUICKLY BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BACK INTO PICTURE
LATER MON NIGHT...BUT WITH SYSTEM SHEARING OUT AS IT HEADS E WE
DECIDED TO KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE IN OUR WESTERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
BASICALLY FAST LOW AMPLITUDE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVER NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS PERIOD...WITH INDIVIDUAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVES LACKING MOISTURE. THEREFORE...LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WITH BOTH FROPA TUE AND AGAIN WED NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TUE WITH SHORT WAVE TROF
WE PREFERRED THE COOLER MAV MAXS TUE AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION
TUE NIGHT IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WED AHEAD
OF NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF. 850 TEMPS WARM TO ABOUT +7C WED AFTN...SO
WE RAISED MAXS A BIT OVER GUID WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN
POSSIBLE RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...

ALL 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON THIS PERIOD...WITH
REX TYPE BLOCK OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLC (RIDGE OVER GREENLAND AND
CLOSED LOW EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND)...BUT THEN DIVERGE ON THE AMPLITUDE
OF NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXTENDING EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE HIGH PLAINS.

AS FOR THE DAILY DETAILS...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACKING A
WEAK SHORT WAVE ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND QUEBEC EARLY THU...WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROF/CDFNT MOVING OFSHR. WEAK CAA OVERSPREADS THE
REGION THU FOLLOWED BY HI PRES NOSING SEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI
WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. CURRENT FORECAST SUPPORTS
THIS THEME...SO ONLY CHANGE MAY BE TO RAISE TEMPS A BIT BASED ON 00Z
MDL GUID AND TRENDS.

BY DAYS 6-7/SAT-SUN 00Z OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS IN STRONG
DISAGREEMENT WITH ALL OTHER MODELS ON THE AMPLITUDE OF NORTHERN
STREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE HIGH
PLAINS. 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC AND HPC ENSEMBLE MEANS ALL SUPPORT A
MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THIS REGION. GIVEN ALL MODELS
(INCLUDING THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS) SUPPORT A POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY S OF THE ALEUTIANS...A MORE AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM PATTERN
SEEMS REASONABLE. IN ADDITION...NEW 06Z GFS HAS TRENDED AWAY FROM
ITS 00Z RUN AND NOW SUPPORTS A MORE AMPLIFIED TROF OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT AND SUN. THEREFORE (AND
UNFORTUNATELY) WE WILL HAVE TO INTRODUCE CHC POPS FOR THE WEEKEND.

DON/T WANT TO GET AHEAD OF OURSELVES...HOWEVER ITS WORTH MENTIONING
ALL MDLS INCLUDING LATEST TPC FORECAST HAVE NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA THU-FRI. GIVEN A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROF IS
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH
OUR CURRENT SATURATED GROUND...THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING.
06Z GFS APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY MODEL THAT ACCELERATES THE TROPICAL
LOW FAST ENOUGH NORTHWARD TO INTERACT WITH GREAT LAKES TROF. OTHER
MODELS SUGGEST GREAT LAKES TROF WOULD NOT PICK UP TROPICAL LOW OR
STEER IT WELL S OF NEW ENGLAND. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOWER END VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT WITH BASES 4-6
KFT. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AND MON...
LAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

STRONG WINDS AND ASSOCIATED MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THE INTERIOR TERMINALS SHOULD SEE
WINDS DROP OFF LATE TONIGHT AS THERE IS SOME DECOUPLING...BUT
COASTAL TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY MON BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 25KT.

AIRPORT WEATHER WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED UNTIL 6 PM EDT FOR BOSTON
AND ALL RI AIRPORTS.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN UP FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS INTO MON. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL LAST INTO EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY SLACKENING
OFF. SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH INTO MON NIGHT.

RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS TUE AHEAD OF SURFACE TROF...ALTHOUGH WINDS
PICKUP TO 20-25 KT WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NW TUE NIGHT. WINDS
DIMINISH EARLY WED...THEN QUICKLY INCREASE WED AFTN AND NGT AHEAD OF
NEXT TROF. COULD SEE W TO SW WINDS OF 20-30 KT LATE WED INTO WED NGT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS SHIFT TO NW EARLY THU WITH 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE EARLY ON...THEN PRES GRADIENT RELAXS BY THU AFTN AS SFC HI
BUILDS SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHT WINDS AND INSIGNIFICANT SEAS
EXPECTED FRI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE SPICKET RIVER IN ESSEX COUNTY UNTIL
645 PM EDT AND FOR THE TAUNTON RIVER IN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES
UNTIL 200 AM EDT MON. THE SPICKET RIVER APPEARED TO BE CRESTING JUST
OVER ITS 7.5 FOOT FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO LET THAT WARNING EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE THIS EVENING. THE TAUNTON
RIVER CONTINUES TO RISE...AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 12.5 FEET
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM MON. IT SHOULD FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE
MON AFTERNOON.

FLOODING ALSO CONTINUES AT SEVERAL MAINSTEM FORECAST POINTS. SEE THE
LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS. MOST RIVERS HAVE ALREADY
CRESTED...EXCEPT FOR THE CONNECTICUT AND MERRIMACK WHICH SHOULD DO
SO EITHER TONIGHT OR MON.

WE SHOULD GET A BIT OF A RESPITE WITH DRY WEATHER AT LEAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR CTZ002>004 UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR MAZ002>024-026 UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.
NH...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR NHZ011-012-015 UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.
RI...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR RIZ001>008 UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ230>237 UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY.
...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ250-254-255 UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY.
...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ270 FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM MONDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JWD
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...JWD/NOCERA

[Trader Ron]

Southern Florida is starting to look a little better. Meaning out the woods but you never know so stay alert.

To me the Big Bend looks good for a direct hit.

If this trough is weaker than expected, don't expect a sharp recurvature till she nears the North Gulf.

I wouldn't say that south Florida is looking a little better, yet. If the storm doesn't move as quickly as forecast, then any NE turn begins from farther south, putting south Florida under the gun. Typical forecast errors for this type of system are to the left. Such weak systems tend to track right of the forecast about 70-75% of the time (per a study by Lance Wood of the Houston/Galveston NWS office).

Thats why I say the big Bend. I will go on a limb and say Cedar Key. Crow is good this time of year!!

Rainband..I might be joining you. I said North of Tampa or the big Bend area this morning.
I also said South Florida is an unlikely landfall, i will stick with that prediction.
Start the Barbecue

[Rainband]

Don't forget the Hot sauce!!

[cinlfla]

At this time of the year, you rarely see a pattern that allows a storm to continue Westward. In this case a Zonal Flow will be set-up, the westerlies will be down to the Gulf Coast. That is why at some point this storm will recurve quickly.

You say that at some point it will recurve quickly,what do you mean recurve towards Florida or away form Florida.

[HurricaneQueen]

Thanks, wxman57. I appreciate your answer.


Ron, as always the eternal optimist!!! Boy, do I hope you are right this time!

Lynn

[artist]

cinfla - I believe TS Zack means toward Fl.